Comments on: A Quick Finder Search Regarding Durant’s Defense

By: Jae

Jae — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 17:38:03 +0000

Doesn't seem like an apples to apples comparison. By looking at players 6'9 and over, you're comparing KD to a bunch of PFs; stats change a lot when you're assigned to an interior player on defense instead of a perimeter player. More rebs, more blocks. What you see on that list is a combination of other tall sfs (who don't tend to get a lot of steals or rebs or blocks) and a lot of low effort PFs. Compare KD to guys who played SF/SG and I'd imagine the numbers are pretty typical. Especially if you omit the PJ Carlesimo games from the data set.

By: Charrua

Charrua — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:24:30 +0000

What is interesting is that a cursory look at the numbers suggest that the Thunder would improve greatly by trading Durant for Stojakovic, for example. Peja is the 5th highest rated player on offense and a much better (about as good as Kobe and better than Pau, apparently) defender.
Hey, Matt Bonner would be a vast improvement!!
Ok, sorry for the snark, but my impression from these numbers is that they show things you might want to look at (as why Pau looks like a poor defender, or why Peja looks so good on offense), not a definitive appraisal of value.

By: Dave Hogg

Dave Hogg — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:35:50 +0000

Sort by DefRtg (Net), and Durant appears 5th-worst in the league (over some minutes minimum). His presence is alleged to result in opponents scoring 7.85 more points per 100 possessions. That means his presence turns the Charlotte offense into the Lakers offense. It also means that his defense is worth -20 wins per season. That's insane. And yes, of the 40 Pistons games I covered last season, not a night went by where I didn't think "You know, it's a shame that Antonio McDyess doesn't play defense like Richard Hamilton. He might have a career that way."

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:09:59 +0000

That's why we say "all else being held equal"... But perhaps "intensity" was the wrong word -- "activity" seems better, on second thought.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:07:35 +0000

Why refer to numbers (like PF) which MAY represent defense, when we have defensive APM numbers available? --
http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?year=2008-2009&mode=summary

Sort by DefRtg (Net), and Durant appears 5th-worst in the league (over some minutes minimum).
His presence is alleged to result in opponents scoring 7.85 more points per 100 possessions.

Also appearing in the top (worst) 30: Prince (4.89), Billups (5.27), McDyess (5.67), Finley (7.50).

Seeing several (unlikely) Pistons in this area, I see their better defenders include Iverson and Hamilton. Perhaps Durant can strive to be like these guys?

Does anyone really know what to make of these numbers?

By: Dave Hogg

Dave Hogg — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 05:59:57 +0000

I know the correlation between foul rate and defensive plus/minus. That doesn't mean I think it works as an indicator of defensive intensity. Not when guys like Garnett, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace have such low rates. Yes, KD had one of the lowest rates last season - but he was higher than LeBron. Heck, of guys who played half their team's minutes, the lowest foul rate in the NBA was Tayshaun Prince. Yes, he slipped last season, but I don't think anyone is going to argue that he had the least defensive intensity in the league. To use a different example, Charlie Villanueva committed 5.8 PF/48 last season. Shane Battier committed 2.7. Which one do you want on the floor if you need a key stop?

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 04:36:26 +0000

Obviously it's not going to hold perfectly for every player, but across the entire sample of NBA players there is a statistically significant correlation between PF/min and on-court defensive impact. And all of the players you mentioned have higher career pace-adjusted PF/min rates than Durant; among players with 1000 or more MP last season, KD had the 10th-lowest pace-adjusted PF/min rate of anyone in the NBA. Remember, I'm not necessarily saying "fouls are good" in and of themselves, but I am saying that, all else being equal, players with more personal fouls per minute tend to be more effective defenders. And that's another piece of boxscore-based evidence to back up APM's claim that Durant just isn't very good on D right now.

By: Dave Hogg

Dave Hogg — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:22:19 +0000

fouls are also often indicative of defensive effort (think of PF/36 as the hoops equivalent of "range factor" in baseball) If that's true, why has Kevin Garnett always had low PF rate stats? Why did LBJ - praised to the skies for his improved defense last season - have a PF rate about the same as Durant's? Why does Shane Battier have such a low rate?

By: garron

garron — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:45:05 +0000

I think what surprises people the most is that his offense is so good, it makes it hard to comprehend how bad his defense must be.

I guess its hard because most don't watch OKC and only see KD's box score. I have watched some OKC games on league pass, and always attributed OKC to just have bad defense period. I guess next season a lot of us will really pay attention to KD's defense.

Its just hard as there are players who you would think are bad at D but have nowhere near the negativ +/- that KD have, and are definitely not as offensively gifted; it puts things into a scary perspective

One thing I do agree with though is what abbott said. KD shouldn't be ignoring this, and needs to actively work on it to become an eventual superstar

By: Paul McLeod

Paul McLeod — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 22:39:41 +0000

Another way to think about it: Kevin Durant has the BEST stats of those guys at the YOUNGEST age. He's an outlier in this group, not the typical member. Given that some of those guys have turned out alright on defense, this isn't necessarily a bad sign for him.