Comments on: SRS Standard Errors, the Probability of Being the Best Team, and a Layup http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40995 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 21:20:02 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40995 If you used this methodology for players (using adjusted plus minus), the very best would probably be lucky to hit 10%.

]]> By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40989 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 20:36:42 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40989 Interesting - would've guessed they'd crack 90%, but from the first post you'd made I was a little surprised at how big the standard errors were so I shouldn't be surprised here. Thanks for doing that. Very fun to see.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40981 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 19:23:53 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40981 Here's 1996, post-playoffs:

Team p(Best)
CHI 87%
UTA 5%
SEA 5%
SAS 2%
ORL 1%

I would imagine that's about as much certainty as you're going to get in a given season.

]]> By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40971 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:19:22 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40971 45% for Spurs. 6% chance for other Conference Finalists! And the best part is, that it really does make sense.

]]> By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40970 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:15:37 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40970 Also would be interesting to see pre and post playoffs for different years.

]]> By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40969 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 18:15:01 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40969 Very cool. I bet 2006 would not be very decisive at all. 1996, probably pretty clear cut.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40960 Wed, 26 Jan 2011 15:36:04 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40960 I only did it for this year, but then I plugged in 2007 (playoffs included) just as a test. Here were the errors:

Tm Estimate Std. Error
ATL -5.089 2.452
BOS -3.919 2.452
CHA -4.187 2.452
CHI 4.141 2.421
CLE 3.367 2.394
DAL 6.192 2.433
DEN 1.545 2.436
DET 3.826 2.405
GSW 0.599 2.418
HOU 4.427 2.430
IND -2.834 2.452
LAC -0.279 2.452
LAL -0.117 2.436
MEM -4.656 2.452
MIA -1.668 2.439
MIL -4.658 2.452
MIN -3.384 2.452
NJN -0.641 2.415
NOK -1.416 2.452
NYK -3.282 2.452
ORL -0.110 2.439
PHI -3.472 2.452
PHO 7.287 2.418
POR -3.995 2.452
SAC -1.566 2.452
SAS 8.052 2.394
SEA -2.660 2.452
TOR -0.026 2.433
UTA 3.281 2.403
WAS -1.212 2.439
HCA 3.079 0.321

And here were the likelihoods of being the best:

Tm Pct
SAS 45%
PHO 26%
DAL 14%
HOU 4%
CHI 4%
DET 3%
UTA 2%
CLE 1%
All Others 1%
]]> By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656&cpage=1#comment-40887 Tue, 25 Jan 2011 23:00:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8656#comment-40887 This is really cool. Have you done this it all for previous seasons. I wonder what the highest level of certainty has been at the end of the the playoffs?

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