Comments on: Best Playoff Players, 2003-2011 (*according to statistical +/-) http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50735 Mon, 13 Jun 2011 17:16:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50735 Nice to see the MONSTER impact James has had in the playoffs though, I knew his 2008 series against Boston was pretty dominant. A shame Erik wasted him but I bet James wins a few rings playing dominantly, and even when he's not in his prime too.

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By: David http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50686 Mon, 13 Jun 2011 05:00:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50686 Neil, I'm curious how sensitive this list would be if you used WinShares instead of SPM?

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By: k http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50656 Mon, 13 Jun 2011 00:44:33 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50656 I prefer this list to the broader antecedent, as it takes place over a timeline that more accurately accounts for rule changes that have softened the league.

Dwyane Wade's infamous Finals of 2006 would be an example -- there's no way I believe he puts up those numbers, has that impact, under 90s rules.

The same could be said and, I suppose, *is*, in relation to Dirk Nowitzki's Finals and overall playoffs this year. Defenders are helpless, more because of the way the game is now officiated than Dirk's skillsets; at the very least, the rule changes are greatly playing up and complementing those skills.

Individual performance is often higher, made easier, thanks to the machinations to "open the game up" that have been pushed over the last decade.

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By: DJ http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50649 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 23:12:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50649 Thanks for all the analyses, Neil. Cool stuff.

I'm wondering if you could calculate correlation coefficients for SPM vs. leverage for each player? A statistically significant positive coefficient would suggest better play when the leverage is high; a negative would indicate a choker.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50627 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 18:25:44 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50627 #4 - Yes, the coefficient for OReb decreased when I removed steals and blocks from the regression. Offensively, steals were seen as hugely positive while blocks were somewhat negative, so it makes sense that a new regression w/o them would compensate by decreasing the value of OReb (players who get a lot of those tend to get more blocks than steals).

#5 - Basically. By far, his best impact games of the 2003 playoffs were 5/29/2003 vs Dallas (Game 6, 4-4 3fg, 2 reb, 3 ast in 13 minutes) and 6/13/2003 vs New Jersey (Game 5, 6 pts, a rebound and a steal in 9 minutes). Those games happened to carry leverages of 2.13 and 5.11 respectively, and then in his other high-leverage games his average impact was a little better than 0, so he comes out looking good here. If your bad games come with almost no leverage (on 5/7/2003 vs. LA he had an impact of -3.31, but that game only had a leverage of 0.88), and your good games come with a lot of leverage, you'll do well, which is as it should be.

#6 - That would double-count leverage, since impact already takes into account the leverage of every game the player played. But yeah, an adjustment for total games could be made, since impact is a per-game metric.

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By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50626 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 18:01:26 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50626 If I was a Kobe defender, I might think that multiplying all 3 columns would be the best measure.

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50624 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 17:46:28 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50624 Indulge my ignorance a second, Neil... Is Kerr's leverage so high because he made the majority of his contributions in the closeout game against NJ in 2003 (believe that was when Scott figured out that the whole Kenyon Martin straight up D thing wasn't hacking it and started doubling down on Timmy, so Pop countered by inserting Steve)?

No Ray Allen surprises me.

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By: Ben http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50623 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 17:31:07 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50623 Great stuff as always,

Am I missing something or are defensive rebounds more valuable for overall SPM than offensive rebounds now?

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50621 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 15:42:17 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50621 #2 - Thanks. The minute-weighted average SPM for players who played at least 50% of team playoff minutes was 0.81, and the average impact was 0.80.

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By: J. Joyce http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668&cpage=1#comment-50616 Sun, 12 Jun 2011 09:04:14 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9668#comment-50616 Nice post as usual Neil, and I agree with you on the steal issue.
BTW, what's the avg. SPM and avg. impact for the playoff players who played over 50% of team minutes played?

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