Comments on: Comparing the Different Versions of “Assist Rate”

By: Dave

Dave — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 00:43:07 +0000

following your kenpom link we get:

Assist Rate (ARate): This is assists divided by the field goals made by the player’s teammates while he is on the court. [Changed 4/9/06]

Are you sure that his ARate is an estimate? It reads to me that it is a PbP derived number - and gives a slightly different number to the one your formula gives, your formula is an estimate of this number.
I only raise this question since his definition is changed 2006 and that is about when we have had reliable PbP data from - at least NBA ...

By: P Middy

P Middy — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 21:15:01 +0000

Neil-- Without actually begging you to do it, do you think it's possible to weigh and combine these approaches into a single "passing performance" type stat? Or do they measure too differently on too many different criteria?

By: Joseph

Joseph — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 16:40:32 +0000

DSMok1,

Thanks for sharing that link. Interesting discussion there as well. Peeling some layers off of that onion quickly!

By: Nick

Nick — Sun, 03 Oct 2010 00:48:42 +0000

Interesting how the Pomeroy metric has Wade and James as the runaway leaders at their positions, James especially. I'd give odds they both go up next year, too. Kinda funny that Wade doesn't even show up on "pass-tendency" lists but dominates the "effective passer" lists at his position. Would the correct conclusion be that Wade only passes when his target is in a good position to score, then? Also, why is Tyreke Evans listed as a shooting guard?

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 20:17:34 +0000

Joseph, I attempted to do what you mention, at least in part, in the following thread:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2532

I attempted to estimate whose assists were worth the most.

By: Joseph

Joseph — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 04:50:18 +0000

I don't know how hard it would be to calculate, but maybe comparing a shooter's percentage while the evaluated player is on or off the court would help determine how much the player's assists really mean. If they're on the court and racking up assists left and right, that means the players they're passing to are hitting their shots. If they go down considerably when a bench player comes in, then there's a reason. Perhaps it's the defense who really decides. If the player who racks up assists can create his own shots and is a defensive liability, that makes it more likely that the player who shoots will have less coverage when getting the ball than if there were a reserve player who can't shoot as well. I think assists should be tied to shooting percentage, assists per possession, points per assist, and overall point contribution. If a player provides assists to six other shooters and the point total is 30, I think that would be better than assists to seven and a point total of 14. Know what I'm saying?

By: Anon x 2

Anon x 2 — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 01:32:44 +0000

Bryant looks good in the Pomeroy AST rate, so I'll take that one. :D

By: Greyberger

Greyberger — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 01:13:24 +0000

Any difference between Pomeroy's AST rate and AST per poss. is going to be minor compared to the difference between them and metrics that don't control for pace. One day I wanted to make the case that, precisely for the reasons above, Pomeroy Assist Rate wasn't sufficiently advanced to replace assists per minute in analysis or data projects... then I actually looked at the difference and found that more than anything it removes pace from the equation and the other differences in evaluation are subtle. Took the air out of my tires a little bit so I'm really glad to see Mr. Paine to take a crack at the subject.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 21:28:46 +0000

I can't believe I forgot to mention that. It's been corrected. And for the record, I think I prefer Pomeroy's version as well. Although to the credit of Ast/TmPoss, being a high assister in a good offense should probably get more credit than in a bad one, since we should theoretically be measuring making one's teammates better.

By: Justin Kubatko

Justin Kubatko — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 19:04:29 +0000

DSMok1 wrote: I prefer the Pomeroy AST Rate, for sure. I don't think Neil mentioned this, but that's what I use on the site (I call it "Assist Percentage").