PART 1

1. There are now 2 weeks left in the NBA's regular season schedule and the Miami Heat:

i. Have had a relatively healthy Dwyane Wade in their line-up for the bulk of their games to-date;
ii. Have a 42-34/.553 W-L record [i.e. 8-2 in their Last 10, 7 wins in a row]; and,
iii. Are in 5th place in the EC and playing their best basketball of the campaign, as they gear up for the playoffs;

while, the Toronto Raptors:

i. Have had an up-and-down campaign to-date;
ii. Have a 37-37/.500 W-L record [i.e. 5-5 in their Last 10, 2 wins in a row]; and,
iii. Are in 8th place in the EC and preparing to be eliminated from the 1st Round of the playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

In sharp contrast to what many NBA observers might have thought about the quality of this year's Miami team during the pre-season and the early season schedule, when it was expected that the Heat would experience a drop-off in performance this season ... the fact is ... this has not been the case, at all.

Instead ... as I first suggested back in early November ... Erik Spoelstra has done an excellent job this season, Wade has been solid throughout, the bit pieces they have added have worked out [for the most, Rafer Alston not withstanding], Chalmers and Beasley have each made progress, and Udonis Haslem has been outstanding.

PART 2

The Washington Wizards have been an unmitigated disaster ... which, unfortunately, can happen sometimes when an organization is willing to roll the dice on a loose cannon, or two.

PS. Justin, please know that "friendly" wagers are strictly for pride, and never profit. :-) Customarily, they are made between individuals who have a healthy degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for one another's disparate opinion. Hopefully, you will be able to do well again this year, if allowed to participate in Henry Abbott's "post-season picks" competition for NBA "experts" [i.e. cognoscenti, bloggers and stats gurus]. Basketball-reference.com and this blog [which, I think, Neil maintains] is a wonderful resource for everyone who loves the game. Please keep up the good work!

1. I've said nothing "silly" in this thread.

2. Neil and I made a friendly wager concerning which team will end up finishing higher in the EC standings this season, Miami [my pick] or Toronto [Neil's pick].

3. If Neil would like to critique my assessment of the Wizards, as another team in the EC that I think will probably end up finishing ahead of the Raptors this season, as well, I'm perfectly fine with that. I merely made him a friendly offer to make that claim a public one, and then time will tell which one of our perceptions eventually turns out to more accurate.

4. Why do I visit this blog?

For different but inter-related reasons, including:

i. It's the blog provided by basketball-reference.com, which I happen to think is a fabulous resource for accurate data related to the NBA.

ii. To exchange ideas about the game with others who think they already have an accurate understanding of "How it actually works in the NBA", with the intent of increasing the knowledge-base of all visitors to this sight [e.g. Neil, me, you and everyone else].

Whether, or not, I think the notion of "statistical sample size validity" has little significance in a "proper understanding of the NBA game" is not the determining factor behind my decision to participate in the discussions about the game which take place here from time to time.

PS. I have noted with interest your participation the last few years in Truehoop's "NBA Playoff Picks Contest" for certain bloggers and reputable "analysts". Anytime that you would like to engage in such a contest with me, know that it would be an absolute pleasure to do so, from my perspective. Healthy, fair, and [most importantly] friendly competition can be a good thing in terms of sharpening one's instincts for and insights about the game. :-)

Would you like to make the same friendly wager with me regarding the Wizards [2-6] and the Raptors [4-4]?

PS. Small sample sizes are only of concern to whose who consider that type of statistical information to be of significant value in the first place. Thankfully, I don't fit into that specific category.

I'm not aware of previous reference to pace-adjusted scoring rate. How does this work? Why per40?

Unlike others in the on-line hoops community who critiqued my contention this summer that Mr. Haslem [PF] is about to have a better season for Miami than Elton Brand [PF] is for Philadelphia, some of us know full well that the best understanding of the game is not to be found in the number crunching of performance averages but in how real live players actually fit together, or not, vs specific opponents on the court, when considering all three main phases of the game, i.e. Offense, Defense and Rebounding. :-)

I don't recall the specific terms myself, other than you've got Toronto and I've got Miami to finish higher in the standings this season, as a friendly wager.

From my perspective, as a Raptors fan, it's really a win-win situation.

As long as D-Wade remains in good health, Miami will retain a spot in the middle tier of the EC this season because [1] he is just THAT good, [2] their pick-ups of Richardson and Arroyo are good fits with their team, [3] Erik Spoelstra is going to become a solid NBA head coach, and [4] their core group will have had one more year to grow together.

As you know by now, I am not someone who is afraid to let his Basketball Acumen do the talking for him ... rather than searching for a "magical formula" to interpret how the game actually works with unerring accuracy on my behalf.

Cheers