Comments on: Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings, Part II

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:36:40 +0000

Yes, no Lee and no NateRob makes the Knicks a really bad team.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:11:19 +0000

David Lee isn't figured into the Knicks' projection. May have something to do with their last-place 23 wins expected?

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:22:27 +0000

Yes, that's true, Mike. An average player is still above the replacement level and therefore has positive value to a team in the salary-cap era. If the replacement level is -4, then Duncan adds 9 points above that per 100 poss., Parker adds 5.5, and Manu adds 11.

As far as Win Shares go, that's actually next on the to-do list, a similar projection for the 2010 season using past WS results. I just need to build the projection model. It should be interesting to see where they agree and disagree, though.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:06:07 +0000

Neil may corroborate, but I don't think you can say SPM is "considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined ". An SPM (or any +/-) of zero is not a worthless player, it's an average player. This blog sometimes rates players with SPM and sometimes by Win Shares. They give different results. Is there any attempt in the works to fuse the two? Have you guys got an idea of where they most differ?

By: Jason J

Jason J — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:42:42 +0000

I'm, but I still don't think he's worth more than Tim and Tony combined. Maybe I'm wrong, but those two players constitute the key to the team d and rebounding, and their most prolific scorer. Not to take anything away from Manu. Maybe I overvalue the greatest PF of all time as he declines in his 30s and Eva's hubby as he continues to have those eyebrows.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:32:29 +0000

The APBRMetric community has been saying this for years, but I'll reiterate: when Manu is healthy, he actually is as productive/valuable as the general population thinks Kobe Bryant is.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:53:58 +0000

I wasn't disagreeing necessarily, just thought it was interesting how highly SPM valued Manu and Millsap. I do think considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined is a real stretch.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:22:12 +0000

Yeah, they seem to have some weirdness with the Bucks in particular... They also continue to list Amir Johnson on the depth chart (while simultaneously having him on Toronto as well).

By: Jared Ras

Jared Ras — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:16:06 +0000

Where's Hakim Warrick? It looks like some players are missing from ESPN's page.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 02:43:12 +0000

I actually don't see any problem with the first statement -- that team got drastically worse when he was injured, despite TP and TD's continued presence. And Boozer is coming off an injury-riddled down year while Millsap broke out and is only 24, so he should only be better this season. PER even rated Millsap > Boozer last year, so it's not really all that inconceivable to say that until Boozer proves he's 100% back to his old form, Millsap deserves the benefit of the doubt.