Comments on: Early SPM-Projected 2009-10 Standings, Part II http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12348 Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:36:40 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12348 Yes, no Lee and no NateRob makes the Knicks a really bad team.

]]> By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12345 Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:11:19 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12345 David Lee isn't figured into the Knicks' projection. May have something to do with their last-place 23 wins expected?

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12255 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:22:27 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12255 Yes, that's true, Mike. An average player is still above the replacement level and therefore has positive value to a team in the salary-cap era. If the replacement level is -4, then Duncan adds 9 points above that per 100 poss., Parker adds 5.5, and Manu adds 11.

As far as Win Shares go, that's actually next on the to-do list, a similar projection for the 2010 season using past WS results. I just need to build the projection model. It should be interesting to see where they agree and disagree, though.

]]> By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12252 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:06:07 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12252 Neil may corroborate, but I don't think you can say SPM is "considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined ". An SPM (or any +/-) of zero is not a worthless player, it's an average player.

This blog sometimes rates players with SPM and sometimes by Win Shares. They give different results. Is there any attempt in the works to fuse the two? Have you guys got an idea of where they most differ?

]]> By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12238 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:42:42 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12238 I'm, but I still don't think he's worth more than Tim and Tony combined. Maybe I'm wrong, but those two players constitute the key to the team d and rebounding, and their most prolific scorer. Not to take anything away from Manu. Maybe I overvalue the greatest PF of all time as he declines in his 30s and Eva's hubby as he continues to have those eyebrows.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12234 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 13:32:29 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12234 The APBRMetric community has been saying this for years, but I'll reiterate: when Manu is healthy, he actually is as productive/valuable as the general population thinks Kobe Bryant is.

]]> By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12231 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:53:58 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12231 I wasn't disagreeing necessarily, just thought it was interesting how highly SPM valued Manu and Millsap. I do think considering Manu more valuable than Duncan and Parker combined is a real stretch.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12230 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:22:12 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12230 Yeah, they seem to have some weirdness with the Bucks in particular... They also continue to list Amir Johnson on the depth chart (while simultaneously having him on Toronto as well).

]]> By: Jared Ras http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12227 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 03:16:06 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12227 Where's Hakim Warrick? It looks like some players are missing from ESPN's page.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361&cpage=1#comment-12226 Tue, 15 Sep 2009 02:43:12 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3361#comment-12226 I actually don't see any problem with the first statement -- that team got drastically worse when he was injured, despite TP and TD's continued presence. And Boozer is coming off an injury-riddled down year while Millsap broke out and is only 24, so he should only be better this season. PER even rated Millsap > Boozer last year, so it's not really all that inconceivable to say that until Boozer proves he's 100% back to his old form, Millsap deserves the benefit of the doubt.

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