Comments on: Which Offensive Rate Stats Stay the Most Consistent When a Player Changes Roles?

By: Ed

Ed — Fri, 20 Aug 2010 20:03:13 +0000

I like to think of players as hauling an offensive load. Use games that are not blowouts or where the player played too few minutes. Calculate what percentage of the offense he scored. Rank against all players. One can then compare the "load" players carry in wins, losses, win streaks, losing streaks.

A change in load should indicate a change in roles and also indicate how effective the player is in the new role.

The load accounts for the team quality or the environment a player finds himself in.

By: taheati

taheati — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 02:46:14 +0000

It'd be interesting to see if highte AsR and OT% follow players regardless of position, i.e., high OT% bigs who also have highter AsR relative to big norms, likewise guards and OT%.

By: taheati

taheati — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 02:43:10 +0000

Perhaps it is because those two stats measure tendency as much as ability, although there's certainly skill being captured in each as well. With assists, wouldn't TO-rate track AST-rate if correlation suggested "tendency" more than ability? I think both (AsR & OR%) may point to ability, learned or innate, in the context of spatial awareness, visual acuity, biomechanics/kinematics.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 20:40:27 +0000

Do you think some of the reason for the overall lack of correlation between Usage and these other offensive rates might be that, as a general rule, the drop is Usage is often due to a drop in ability (injury / age – I imagine age is the most common factor) which would lead to an across the board drop in rates rather than a dip in usage accompanied by a spike somewhere else?

I wonder if we could find a way to isolate players in their primes where usage dropped due to a situational shift – like Thunder Dan when Barkley joined the Suns. He went from being a third option to a spot up shooter (oddly less responsibility led to his first All-Star appearance). Usage slipped. OReb% dropped. TS% spiked. All of that follows. Barkley pushed him to the perimeter. He was out of position to rebound and wide open to take high value 3 pointers.

By: Greyberger

Greyberger — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 18:26:35 +0000

1: Run it with what? I don't see how Usage% could have an effect on defensive rebounds, steals, etc... unless the theory is that players become tired from too many touches on offense, or demotivated by getting too few.

Great post, by the way. The results remind me of the table in the Berri book where yearly box-score stats are explained by the year before.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 18:05:04 +0000

The only one of those that strikes me as odd, and I actually looked this up and found it myself in a few individuals where it held true, is that OReb% does not appear to be tied to Usage. You'd think there would be a pretty linear relationship. Fewer scoring opportunities should mean more rebounding opportunities, right?

By: Westy

Westy — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 17:06:50 +0000

Good stuff. Will you also be running this for defensive stats?