Comments on: The Value of an NBA Draft Pick: Part I

By: Gill

Gill — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 02:45:03 +0000

What are the values for undrafted players first time in league and run of the mill minimum salary free agent pick-ups?

By: Dave

Dave — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 06:17:44 +0000

Justin the Aritmetic Mean for your #5 picks is 57.7 so we are going to expect "on average" that you number 5 pick is going to show to be better than the EV (Expected Value) that you derived. Now I know this is mostly Barkley, but then he played thousands of minutes, is it reasonable to measure his WS to James Ray's? Obviously the EV (regression?) equation is fitted to all picks, not just #5, but WS is correlated to MP...

By: anonymous

anonymous — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:59:41 +0000

Since lower picks end up on teams that have usually performed well in the year before, they'd get less playing time compared to those picked early, resulting in artificially low win shares. With this in mind, it seems very difficult to find any metric that would be able to compare players who play many minutes with those that barely play at all. Maybe it's best to compare the players' productions 5-6 years after being drafted when they have a chance to show their abilities?

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 18:52:24 +0000

Ah yes, overlooked that little fact. Thanks.

How do the different picks look in terms of WS/minute?

By: Justin Kubatko

Justin Kubatko — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 18:39:15 +0000

Johnny, one thing to keep in mind is that the top pick will produce that value in x minutes, while a #7 and a #9 would produce that value in about 2x minutes. I'd rather have the guy that's going to give me the same value in fewer minutes.

By: Johnny Twisto

Johnny Twisto — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 16:56:56 +0000

Have you ever established a Win Shares replacement level? I'm not even sure how that is defined in basketball, since teams can control how many minutes and touches their worst players get (I apologize for my ignorance in cagermetrics). Anyway, I ask because based on your first chart, two #8 picks would have about the same expected value as a #1 pick. Would anyone trade the top pick for two #8s? (or say, a 7 and a 9, so it could be in the same draft.) I suppose it depends on the perceived talent in the draft and the individual team's circumstances, but I'm inclined to think teams would not give up that top pick. I'm not sure if that means the best players in the league have more value than WS assigns them, or if one should consider these WS numbers in relation to a baseline higher than 0, or something else.