Comments on: BBR News: Playoff Probabilities Report

By: Justin Kubatko

Justin Kubatko — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 02:23:51 +0000

Jacob, the Blazers have a better point differential and have played a tougher schedule so far this season. Gabe, that just means that in two of the 1000 simulated seasons, the Spurs got the top seed. I think that should fall into the category of "stuff happens".

By: Gabe

Gabe — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:25:52 +0000

Something interesting I'm seeing (as of today, at least). The Lakers have the best projected record in the West at 65.0 projected wins and a 99.8% chance of making the top seed, while the second best team is the Nuggets with 54.4 projected wins and no chance of making the top seed. However, the third best team, San Antonio, gets the other 0.2% chance of the top seed, even though they have fewer projected wins (53.7) than the Nuggets. Is that just a quirk of the simulations?

By: Ben

Ben — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 19:22:05 +0000

In Westy's particular example, I don't think playoff probabilities would be affected much.... ;)

By: Jacob

Jacob — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 21:41:57 +0000

Justin, I'm curious as to why your formula gives Portland a better chance to win the west than San Antonio. Portland has a slightly better efficiency differential on the season but the Spurs have the better record and seem to be playing better of late-- do you preferentially weight recent games?

By: Justin Kubatko

Justin Kubatko — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 21:14:02 +0000

Westy, no, it doesn't. I suppose you could come up with a method to make those types of adjustments, but my preference is always to keep things simple. :-)

By: Westy

Westy — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 21:01:40 +0000

Good stuff, Justin.

My only question, does this take into account someone like Al Jefferson going down for the Timberwolves?

By: Ben

Ben — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 15:38:06 +0000

Very nice!