Comments on: 2010 Eastern Conference Semifinals Preview: Orlando vs. Atlanta http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717&cpage=1#comment-16884 Tue, 04 May 2010 19:25:04 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717#comment-16884 The home court advantage is estimated as worth 3.7 points per 100 possessions (at least, that's my estimate over the last 10 years). If there were no home court advantage, the ORL vs. ATL distribution would look like:

ORL vs ATL
4 to 0 8.5%
4 to 1 15.6%
4 to 2 18.0%
4 to 3 16.5%
3 to 4 14.1%
2 to 4 13.1%
1 to 4 9.7%
0 to 4 4.5%

Margin
8.00 6.79
ORL ATL
58.6% 41.4%

It would also be a lot easier to calculate the series results in this case! As it is, a 7 game series is a pain as I have to calculate the odds of every different outcome (such as WWLLWW) and sum them to get the odds like these.

]]> By: Mike G http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717&cpage=1#comment-16882 Tue, 04 May 2010 15:47:16 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717#comment-16882 DSMok1 says Orl in 5 or 7 are both more likely than Orl in 6.
Also, that Atl in 6 is more likely than in 7 or in 5.

Neil says Orl in 7 is more likely than in 6, less likely than in 5.

I don't get the unevenness of the distribution. Does it have to do with home/away?

Also: The link shown as --
"How They Got Here:
Won NBA Eastern Conference First Round (4-3) versus Milwaukee Bucks"
-- leads to a preview of that series.

How about a statistical summary of previous series, rather than another review of the regular season?

]]> By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717&cpage=1#comment-16859 Mon, 03 May 2010 18:01:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717#comment-16859 The Magic are significantly stronger at the Center position than the Bucks were. Even if Howard gets saddled with fouls. Zaza and Horford are not going to produce easy buckets in this series. Orlando has a few guys it can throw at Joe Johnson defensively. Josh Smith will have a lot riding on his shoulders. But if it was that hard against the depleted Bucks . . .

]]> By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717&cpage=1#comment-16857 Mon, 03 May 2010 15:55:28 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717#comment-16857 My adjusted team efficiencies, converted to SPM, then converted back to team efficiency based on the expected lineups/roster.

Orlando is the 3rd best team still playing; Atlanta the 5th best.

ORL vs ATL
4 to 0 7.6%
4 to 1 18.9%
4 to 2 14.8%
4 to 3 20.8%
3 to 4 11.0%
2 to 4 15.7%
1 to 4 7.2%
0 to 4 4.0%

Margin
8.00 6.79
ORL ATL
62.1% 37.9%

]]> By: sp6r=underrated http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717&cpage=1#comment-16854 Mon, 03 May 2010 15:35:12 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5717#comment-16854 Orlando sweeps Atlanta. The magic are way under the radar of the general basketball public.

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