Comments on: Who’s Over/Underachiving So Far?

By: Melissa

Melissa — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 06:40:31 +0000

Wow I may need to show my son this. I had no idea of all the projections or how to do that. He will find this fasinating. Thank you for the information.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sun, 14 Nov 2010 18:49:58 +0000

Well LeBron is slowly coming around, pretty great performance against Boston.

He's figuring out the LeBron/Chris Paul role. I expect his shooting percentages to improve at least, his 3 pointers for example.

By: Sean Forman

Sean Forman — Fri, 12 Nov 2010 13:52:51 +0000

It's a pre tags can really mess things up issue.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 19:03:58 +0000

I'm not sure, I'll have to look at why it's not working. Even I can't get html tags to work in the comments unless I go to the comment-edit screen. Idk if it's a browser issue (I'm in Firefox), or what.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:14:31 +0000

BTW: is there any way for BBR to get the pre tag to work here in the comments?

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 16:13:43 +0000

Here is the Advanced SPM list of overachievers, minimum of 120 minutes played:

Top 20: Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat PHI Elton Brand -0.89 6.34 7.23 5.78 0.06 0.95 NJN Kris Humphries -2.45 4.66 7.10 2.81 -1.73 0.72 DAL Tyson Chandler -1.56 4.81 6.37 3.98 -0.28 1.28 UTA Paul Millsap 2.16 8.43 6.27 7.70 2.90 0.74 NYK Landry Fields -5.28 0.51 5.79 0.32 -3.85 1.43 SAC Francisco Garcia -1.37 4.19 5.57 3.26 -0.85 0.53 MIA James Jones -3.39 1.76 5.14 1.77 -2.35 1.04 ORL Brandon Bass -1.23 3.83 5.06 2.85 -0.64 0.59 NJN Devin Harris 1.04 5.99 4.95 5.12 1.51 0.47 OKC Russell Westbrook 2.27 7.05 4.78 6.33 2.74 0.47 ORL Vince Carter 1.87 6.65 4.78 5.77 2.25 0.38 BOS Marquis Daniels -2.68 2.03 4.71 1.06 -2.24 0.44 TOR Reggie Evans -3.22 1.38 4.61 1.05 -2.14 1.08 ORL Dwight Howard 5.59 10.14 4.55 8.86 5.89 0.31 NYK Ronny Turiaf -0.84 3.68 4.52 2.69 0.12 0.96 MIA Joel Anthony -1.70 2.79 4.49 1.91 -1.36 0.34 SAS Richard Jefferson -0.31 4.13 4.44 3.79 0.13 0.44 ORL Jameer Nelson 1.69 6.09 4.40 4.93 1.90 0.21 GSW Monta Ellis 0.67 5.03 4.37 4.89 1.26 0.59 ATL Al Horford 3.39 7.73 4.35 6.77 3.79 0.40

Bottom 20:
Tm Player ProjSPM SPM Delta RegrSPM UpdProj Heat
DET Tayshaun Prince -0.14 -3.65 -3.51 -3.05 -0.49 -0.35
UTA Al Jefferson 1.47 -2.05 -3.53 -1.39 0.77 -0.70
BOS Jermaine O'Neal -1.02 -4.71 -3.68 -3.99 -1.44 -0.41
DAL Brendan Haywood -0.20 -3.89 -3.69 -3.29 -0.52 -0.32
OKC Jeff Green 0.44 -3.47 -3.91 -2.80 0.16 -0.28
PHO Channing Frye 1.50 -2.47 -3.98 -2.15 1.14 -0.36
NJN Brook Lopez 2.06 -2.02 -4.08 -1.62 1.64 -0.43
PHI Spencer Hawes -0.59 -4.69 -4.10 -4.21 -1.15 -0.56
MIN Nikola Pekovic -3.50 -7.61 -4.11 -6.65 -4.68 -1.18
WAS Yi Jianlian -2.62 -6.75 -4.13 -5.85 -3.20 -0.58
SAC Carl Landry -0.63 -4.83 -4.20 -4.08 -1.08 -0.45
MIA LeBron James 11.72 7.50 -4.22 7.14 10.84 -0.88
GSW Reggie Williams -0.06 -4.35 -4.29 -3.64 -0.83 -0.77
OKC Nenad Krstic -1.80 -6.35 -4.55 -5.35 -2.15 -0.35
PHO Robin Lopez -1.29 -6.19 -4.90 -5.25 -1.75 -0.46
ORL J.J. Redick -0.02 -4.93 -4.91 -4.02 -0.33 -0.31
CHI Luol Deng 1.17 -3.76 -4.93 -2.96 0.77 -0.39
SAS DeJuan Blair 1.47 -3.57 -5.04 -2.91 0.90 -0.57
OKC Kevin Durant 5.86 0.72 -5.14 0.96 5.25 -0.61
OKC James Harden 1.11 -6.55 -7.65 -5.55 0.36 -0.75

Anyone can run these numbers: I've posted the spreadsheets for Advanced SPM online over at APBR:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?p=32511#32511

As an OKC fan, I am rather disturbed by 4 OKC players making the bottom 20, including the worst 2!

For those interested, John Wall is just off the top 20, with a 4.64 Adv. SPM and a projection before the season of 0.51 (median for a #1 over all rookie).

An interesting thing to follow this year will be the progression of the 21 year old forwards: Anthony Randolph, Blake Griffin, DeJuan Blair, and Serge Ibaka. Blake Griffin and Ibaka lead the way currently.

By: Gil Meriken

Gil Meriken — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 04:33:19 +0000

I don't think Paul Millsap is overachieving. I expect him to score 11 points in the last 28 of regulation of every game the rest of the season. Do not try to break this message down hermeneutically. It has been hermeneutically sealed.

By: taheati

taheati — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 04:04:06 +0000

In a big-3 to big-3 comparison, it'd be interesting (to me if no one else) to see the same analyses run for 2007-08 season at a similar point in time (November) + an end-of-season (April) comparison. I'd expect to see similar falloff from Garnett, Allen or Pierce at the start of their 1st season together, some level of recovery, adjustment or permanence by season's end.

By: Michele Martel

Michele Martel — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 03:18:43 +0000

David Lee was really never that good, I hope he does well we enjoyed watching him at the garden he is a hustler but never thought he was that talented

By: taheati

taheati — Thu, 11 Nov 2010 03:09:41 +0000

#7 Agreed. A healthy Paul, a younger Posey (Ariza), addition by subtraction for better D (Stojakovic, Peterson), acquiring Belinelli sitting Thornton for better D along with aging Spurs, Mavs & the Hornets could easily revisit 50 wins. #8 No Lebron fan here but I've followed the Heat long enough (1996) to know it's not all on the player to "figure it out" -- especially when that player is a 3 in Riley's system (ibid. Mashburn, Marion ). Rileyball disciple Erik Spoelstra is much more apostolic than Stan Van Gundy ever was. As a result, you see MUCH more standing around when the 'big 3' *take turns* handling and iso-ing during all too typical 1-v-5 pick-and-rolls. To date, James is averaging career LOWS in minutes-played, FGAs, offensive rebounding & near-career-lows in FG%, USG% & FTAs. He's averaging career HIGHS in TOs, TO-rate, assists and AST-rate. So it's not clear whether James is "underachieving" or underutilized given a) the presence of 2 x high-usage teammates which James is unselfishly sacrificing shots + touches for b) a system that depends so much on iso matchups which become iso mismatches when defenses double, triple while teammates standaround waiting for kickout-3s or their turn to iso-kamikaze.