Comments on: Biggest NBA Finals Collapses, 1992-2010

By: David Fauber

David Fauber — Mon, 13 Jun 2011 12:20:03 +0000

So it looks like this year's "collapse" would rank 2nd on the list (Miami was almost at 80% after the 3rd quarter of game 4), how fitting.

By: Jimbo

Jimbo — Sat, 04 Jun 2011 20:53:21 +0000

I don't know the metric used here, but it sure like there was only one collapse that ever happened. In both #2 and #3, the team that won was the team everyone expected to win, and all they did was lose the first game.

Even after Philly won game 1 in 2001, it was hard to imagine them beating the Lakers. That was a David and Goliath final if I ever saw one.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 15:35:47 +0000

Watching the Bulls is far more entertaining than the other 4-2 series you have on your list. Especially against a mediocre defensive team like the Suns in 1993.

If you want another close series you can move up the 98 series against Utah.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 03 Jun 2011 15:08:59 +0000

Ah what a surprise, Celtic Finals are your favorite.

Not really making you look objective and I don't think the quality of league in the 70's was comparable either. ABA sucking up some of our superstars, whereas now every bonafide star plays in the NBA.

Europe has some role players but not on the level of a prime Dr. J, Rick Barry, Gilmore.

By: cort

cort — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 07:27:32 +0000

ben
out of the NBA finals i have seen myself, going back to before age 10, these are the best in my opinion:
15) 2000 LA 4, Indiana 2
14) 1992 Chi 4, Ptld 2
13) 2005 SA 4, Det 3
12) 1991 Chi 4, LA 1
11) 2010 LA 4, Bos 3
10) 1993 Chi 4, Phx 2
9) 1988 LA 4, Det 3
8) 1998 Chi 4, Utah 2
7) 1980 LA 4, Phi 2
6) 1987 LA 4, Bos 2
5) 1977 Portland 4, Philly 2
4) 1976 Bos 4, Phx 2
3) 1997 Chi 4, Utah 2
2) 1974 Bos 4, Milw 3
1) 1984 Bos 4, LA 3
There really havent been many good Finals this century. 2010 was close and hard-fought but the quality of play was uneven. 3 of the 4 Spur titles were one-sided against inferior teams. Only the 2005 series vs. Detroit was good and close.
Worst Finals
1) 2007 SA 4, Cle 0
2) 1999 SA 4, NY 1
3) 2002 LA 4, NJ 0
4) 2001 LA 4, Philly 1
5) 2003 SA 4, NJ 2
6) 1979 Sea 4, Wash 1

Biggest Upsets
1) 1975 GSt 4, Wash 0
2) 2004 Det 4, LA 1
3) 1977 Ptld 4, Philly 2

The best playoff series I saw was the 1981 East Finals between Boston and Philly.
Best 1st rounder, especially since they went to best 4 of 7, was the 2009 Chicago/Boston 7-game classic with 4 OT games. In best 3 of 5, I thought the 1999 1st round series where Utah edged the Kings 3-2 was a great one. The 1984 1st rounder between Detroit and the Knicks also was a classic, as was the 1991 Indiana/Boston series.
A really good 2nd round series was the 1980 WCSF where defending champ Seattle edged Milwaukee in 7 games.

By: BSK

BSK — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 01:31:06 +0000

Yea, I realized that we had a limited data set. It just seems weird to consider a series an "upset" because the winning team trailed by 1 point halfway through game 1. I guess that was solely the function of a road team winning.

By: cort

cort — Wed, 01 Jun 2011 01:28:29 +0000

i think the dallas collapse in 2006 was the biggest i have seen. mavs up 2-0 and double digit lead in 4th quarter of game 3 before falling in 4 straight. of course the refs had a lot to do with it too - 46 FTs for wade in games 5 & 6, danny crawford anyone - but the mavs let it slip away. too bad nash didnt stay with dallas or they would have won 1 or 2 by now. probably should have won it in 2003 when they started out 15-0, but injuries to finley and dirk grounded them in the WCF.
boston collapsed badly in the 2nd half of game 7 last year too. you could see that one coming in LA though. celtics started settling for long 3's and got tired with a short bench (perkins injury) and the intensity of the game. wallace started out well but ran out of gas. LA limped to the title last year with bryant shooting poorly in game 7 and playing on a bad knee. it isnt surprising they came up way short this year. they were fortunate to win it all in 2010.
the 2009 orlando finals was much closer than 4-1 as well. magic could easily have been up 3-1 with just a few plays being different. they collapsed pretty badly in game 4 down the stretch when it should have been tied up 2-2 instead of going down 3-1. howard missed key FTs and they let fisher shoot an open 3 when orlando was up 3 in the final seconds. dumb, blew a five or seven point lead in the final minute-plus.
utah collapsed badly in game 6 of the 98 finals too. orlando as well in game 1 of the 1995 finals. who can forget nick anderson missing those 4 FTs late as orlando blew a big lead to houston, lost in OT and then got swept.
boston had a big collapse in game 4 of the 1987 finals, but bad refereeing and a lack of using the bench had a lot do with that one.
if dallas wins one of the first two in the 2011 Finals, i like their chances. if you get a split early having the next 3 at home usually equals at least a 3-2 lead. last year it didnt mean a title for boston, but with a healthy perkins i think they win game 7.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 31 May 2011 19:34:54 +0000

#2 - Like WiLQ said, there are only 19 Finals to choose from here to begin with (we're only going back to 1992). Also, the team with home-court won 14 of them. If you have HCA, you start out with a built-in 53% shot before the ball is tipped, and it takes a lot to move the needle very far early in the series. Then, in the middle of the series, the 2-3-2 takes over, as the win probability formula knows that the HCA team has 2 back-to-back home games in their back pocket. You would think that '97 Utah, up 13 in Game 5 of a 2-2 series, would have a higher series win expectancy than '03 New Jersey, up 6 in Game 3 of a 1-1 series, especially since neither had HCA. But the chance of the home team in Game 3 (tied 1-1) winning a 2-3-2 series is 54%; the same probability for the home team in Game 5 of a 2-2 series is 45%. The final 2 games loom larger in Game 5 than in Game 3. That's why if the Mavs win, it will likely be in 5 games -- if it gets to a Game 6 or 7, Miami's chances go up considerably because of the HCA.

By: Ben

Ben — Tue, 31 May 2011 19:19:40 +0000

BSK, come to think of it, there really just haven't been that many great finals. (I've been watching them for 20 years.) Even #3 on the list really overstates things since it was clearly a mismatch - I wonder what the Vegas series line was after Philly stole game one.

By: wiLQ

wiLQ — Tue, 31 May 2011 18:39:14 +0000

"Am I missing something?" There wasn't simply that many series to choose from?