Comments on: BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (March 4, 2011) http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45444 Tue, 08 Mar 2011 12:46:18 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45444 And Sean, I don't 'hate' your posts - they're just a bit bizarre. Won't knock your style though. To each his own. (Anon)

Then the 'this blog ain't for you' comment is the most bizarre of all, isn't it? Hey... I ENJOY you, sir. That's a fact.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45418 Tue, 08 Mar 2011 04:13:51 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45418 "You said he's doing less of the same. I demonstrated he's not only done less, but his game has changed to fit Bron/Wade."

You're actually right. I went back to read what I posted on the matter. Point conceded.

However, with the evidence of a inverse relationship in usage/efficiency from ORtg and +/- regressions, the brunt of the possessions are going to LBJ/Wade as they should. They are the players who should be "iso'd" more for their possessions than Bosh.

"And maybe it's because Wade needs the ball more to perform better. If Lebron had it less, perhaps he'd perform worse, too".

The evidence doesn't support this concept though.

"You throw Boston out as an aberration but show NO PROOF of this at all. You assume it because you want to give an excuse for Miami."

Not true. The 08 Celtics and the 83 Sixers are the only teams with Big 3s (players who were previously "alpha-dogs") that came together to take on different roles on their new team and win a title in their first year.

I realize the 99 Lakers were in the lockout season, but Glen Rice still started the backhalf of their games and was also a starter in the playoffs.

"Perhaps you should do your research first before posting."

I was referring to the games against elites the Heat didn't win, not the regular season.

I should have been more clear however. Teams work to keep LBJ/Wade out of the paint, but regardless of where they take their shots LBJ has been better coverting them in these games.

"Wrong. You shoot early also because an Oreb gives enough time to set up for a better shot. And even if you miss and foul, 6-8 seconds is enough to get the ball up the court."

This is a first. The strategy in those situations is to burn enough time off the clock so if you make the shot, the other team has less of an opportunity to answer with a shot of their own. You shoot early enough though just to allow your team to either tip in the miss or get a chance to grab the board and put up another shot attempt. LeBron did just that.

With no timeouts, it makes no sense to put up an early shot where if you make it, the other team can make a game winner of their own, or if you miss, the other team is more likely to grab the rebound, foul them where they can go up by more points, then have to hoist up a shot at the buzzer without a set play.

"No, it's a clear evade. Everything i said was true."

No, it's you putting your own subjective spinoff on that play.

It's a bit off-topic.

"That's ridiculous. LBJ can't add a post game?"

I meant that in terms of production he's probably at his peak.

Post play has it's own tradeoffs inherent in one's production as well. LBJ is an explosive perimeter player that can shoot the three, go where he wants with the dribble to draw defenses and find open teammates, and get to the rim/draw contact with defenders. Post play allows for high % looks and also draw doubles, but you're trading it off for these stregnths that he SHOULD use be utilizing with his athleticism in his prime.

"I can only assume you've never played ball in any meaningful way."

Not true.

"Yes, Wade jacking up shots is affected by Lebron James play and visa-versa."

You're actually correct again, but that's why we have things like usage. It's not like I'm saying Wade's gotta play better without considering the context of possesions or the value of the shot-attempt - I am.

"You are ignorant of the statistics and you're clearly an apologist for all things Lebron."

There's data to support all of my arguments. But I ain't apologizing for LBJ's play - he hasn't played as well as he's capable of and he too has to play better in these games. I'm just not putting how WADE has played on him as well, all other things considered.

I think I made the points I wanted to state for this thread. And Sean, I don't 'hate' your posts - they're just a bit bizarre. Won't knock your style though. To each his own.

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By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45413 Tue, 08 Mar 2011 02:43:31 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45413 "Now.......tell me why this blog ain't 'for me'."

Your posts, for starters. What the heck are you talking about? I like funny as much as the next dude, but talk about random...(Anon)

Ha! So... this blog 'ain't for me' because......... you personally don't like my posts? KUDOS! The role of 'the pretentious, persnickety 4 year old' is YOURS.

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By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45412 Tue, 08 Mar 2011 02:39:33 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45412 "That's 'angry' for "Off the top of my head, I don't know and don't care to"."

No, it's that there are actually articles on the very questions you've asked earlier. Just saying - they have been addressed already.(Anon)

Why do I think that if results showed it was common for teams that won NBA championships to get repeatedly beaten in the regular season by the top 8 teams in the league---you'd just say so and not be so coy? Oh, well.

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By: Anonx2 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45396 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 21:55:19 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45396 "Whatcha expect? He's playing alongside Bron and Wade who are better shot-creators anyway. Playing alongside those players = less opportunities to get your "shine on" in isolation. Not exactly a revelation here, and not a coincidence that his usage is also the lowest since 05 as well."

You said he's doing less of the same. I demonstrated he's not only done less, but his game has changed to fit Bron/Wade. a higher % of his shots are outside than ever. It's not a case of every shot decreasing by 20%. Outside shots have gone up, inside shots have gone down. They don't allow him to iso much at all, which is his best asset.

"The better players (usually) get the ball more in basketball. That's how it works."

While the better players should get the ball more, it's not an optimal strategy to overuse your best player.

"Mo joined a team with a system already in place with core players already in place in which he didn't need to radically change his role in the offense. Same with Delonte. These guys were complementary pieces to the star already in Cleveland (LBJ).
The Heat had to incorporate a superstar and a star alongside their current superstar and its role players in their offense. There's a difference. Boston made it work right way in 08 when they got off to their hot start, but that was an aberration. These things aren't magic and they take time to work."

This is all BS. Boston won the title it's first year together which added 2 HOF players. Ray and KG came in and Rondo was in his 2nd year and the system also changed.

The 2000 Lakers won the first season with Phil and the triangle (and Kobe's 1st real season started, 1st full season with Glen Rice, 1st year harper). And they won 67 games to boot.

You're making a bunch of BS excuses. Last decade alone 2 teams with a new system and players won it all. The "new" team stuff is bull. Boston just won in 2008 and won a ton of games (66 I believe) having never played together.

You throw Boston out as an aberration but show NO PROOF of this at all. You assume it because you want to give an excuse for Miami.

"He's outperforming Wade though, who some people want to get the ball more."

And maybe it's because Wade needs the ball more to perform better. If Lebron had it less, perhaps he'd perform worse, too. Basketball is a rhythm sport.

"His usage also goes up in crunch time as well."

And in Cleveland his crunch time usage went all up, but his assists/TOs didn't get worse like this.

"Huh? The Heat didn't have a remaining timeout. You don't shoot early and then foul to put the other team on the line to increase their lead when you don't have a remaining timeout on the inbounds. LBJ went for the win as he should, and shot it early enough (with good defense by Noah) to allow his team to get an offensive rebound for another look. Wade just missed off the front rim."

Wrong. You shoot early also because an Oreb gives enough time to set up for a better shot. And even if you miss and foul, 6-8 seconds is enough to get the ball up the court. Wade's look was terrible because he had no time.

"Not evading here. Just pointing out the silliness in subjectively interpreting the play as you did earlier. There's no need for that."

No, it's a clear evade. Everything i said was true.

"The funny thing is, is most of their losses against good teams they're actually pretty good at getting to the rim and converting free throws. So that's not the issue.

The issue is shooting from the field. You're right that teams work to keep LBJ/Wade out of the paint and shoot from outside, but guess who's been the main culprit of the two here? Hint: It ain't the man you've been ranting about."

Actually, it is.

Lebron: Rim (5.7 FGA), 3-9 ft (2.4), 10-15 ft (1.5), 16-23 ft (5.4), 3pt (3.7)
Wade: Rim (7.3 FGA), 3-9 ft (3), 10-15 ft (1.7), 16-23 ft (3.6), 3pt (2.7)

Perhaps you should do your research first before posting.

""Improve"? LBJ has already hit his peak as a player at his position."

That's ridiculous. LBJ can't add a post game? If he's peaked, then Miami is in trouble.

"Oh yes. LBJ is the one telling Wade to jack up long midrange shots and turn the ball over seven times during games right? And playing matador defense?

This is what I'm talking about. Everyone here wants to blame someone else's OWN play on another player - especially a player that creates alot of his own offense. That should NEVER be done. And FWIW, I was a Wade fan LONG before watching LeBron James. From his college ball in Marquette actually.

Simply put, I've watched him play ever since then, and the man needs to STEP HIS GAME UP. He's better than that, no matter who he's playing alongside with."

I can only assume you've never played ball in any meaningful way. Yes, Wade jacking up shots is affected by Lebron James play and visa-versa. Basketball is not played in a vacuum.

Furthermore, as I proved, Lebron is the one jacking up shots, not Wade (or rather, to a greater extent). Wade shoots more at the rim and the same he has the past 3 years. Lebron is shooting less at the rim than the past 4 seasons! He's also taking more long 2s than Wade and 3s. Lebron ratio of long shots to short shots has increased this season while wade's has dropped!

Lebron is also turning the ball over more often. Lebron has had 9 6+ TO games including Boston (8), Philly (9), Portland (6), Atlanta (6). They've both had numerous bad TO games. To imply it's only Wade is ridiculous.

You are ignorant of the statistics and you're clearly an apologist for all things Lebron. As I said, both players deserve blame (as does Bosh), but Lebron chose this team, lebron is the one calling the shots and demanding the ball over Wade, he deserves more scrutiny.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45372 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 16:53:34 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45372 "That's 'angry' for "Off the top of my head, I don't know and don't care to"."

No, it's that there are actually articles on the very questions you've asked earlier. Just saying - they have been addressed already.

"Now.......tell me why this blog ain't 'for me'."

Your posts, for starters. What the heck are you talking about? I like funny as much as the next dude, but talk about random...

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45371 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 16:44:23 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45371 "He's shooting a career high of 16-23 FGA, lowest at rim FGA in 5 years..."

Whatcha expect? He's playing alongside Bron and Wade who are better shot-creators anyway. Playing alongside those players = less opportunities to get your "shine on" in isolation. Not exactly a revelation here, and not a coincidence that his usage is also the lowest since 05 as well.

"I don't think they should get the ball more, I think the way the offense is run needs to change."

The better players (usually) get the ball more in basketball. That's how it works.

"Same excuse was given for Cleveland in the past and we all know how that turned out."

It's not an "excuse"; it's a fact that can be verified by years of data. Doesn't matter which team you're talking about. No one said point-differential was the best predictor of games to make up excuses for Cleveland.

"Mo Williams joined the Cavs in 2008-09. I cited ONLY 2008-09 stats, not two seasons worth of stats."

Mo joined a team with a system already in place with core players already in place in which he didn't need to radically change his role in the offense. Same with Delonte. These guys were complementary pieces to the star already in Cleveland (LBJ).

The Heat had to incorporate a superstar and a star alongside their current superstar and its role players in their offense. There's a difference. Boston made it work right way in 08 when they got off to their hot start, but that was an aberration. These things aren't magic and they take time to work.

"ESPN recently posted a stat that said Lebron is one of only 3 players in crunch time to shoot as many and as poorly from 3 as him. Yeah, he's really performing well."

He's outperforming Wade though, who some people want to get the ball more.

"Lebron's crunch time TOs and Assists are way worse than his season averages."

His usage also goes up in crunch time as well.

"And today was another shining example of him in crunch time. Down 1 with 15+ seconds, so he dribbles out the clock almost rather than making an early play so they could foul if they missed, then drives and shoots a terrible shot and fails. Again."

Huh? The Heat didn't have a remaining timeout. You don't shoot early and then foul to put the other team on the line to increase their lead when you don't have a remaining timeout on the inbounds. LBJ went for the win as he should, and shot it early enough (with good defense by Noah) to allow his team to get an offensive rebound for another look. Wade just missed off the front rim.

"Excellent retort. Evade!"

Not evading here. Just pointing out the silliness in subjectively interpreting the play as you did earlier. There's no need for that.

"Lebron deserves more to blame because he can still improve while Wade cannot and Lebron left his team to come to this one."

"Improve"? LBJ has already hit his peak as a player at his position.

"But they don't compliment each other."

They're still playing.

"The heat are at the bottom of at the rim shots, average at FTs, take the most 16-23 foot shots, and shoot an average number of 3s despite being above average at them."

The funny thing is, is most of their losses against good teams they're actually pretty good at getting to the rim and converting free throws. So that's not the issue.

The issue is shooting from the field. You're right that teams work to keep LBJ/Wade out of the paint and shoot from outside, but guess who's been the main culprit of the two here? Hint: It ain't the man you've been ranting about.

"Lebron's style of play hurts Wade's game."

Oh yes. LBJ is the one telling Wade to jack up long midrange shots and turn the ball over seven times during games right? And playing matador defense?

This is what I'm talking about. Everyone here wants to blame someone else's OWN play on another player - especially a player that creates alot of his own offense. That should NEVER be done. And FWIW, I was a Wade fan LONG before watching LeBron James. From his college ball in Marquette actually.

Simply put, I've watched him play ever since then, and the man needs to STEP HIS GAME UP. He's better than that, no matter who he's playing alongside with.

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By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45362 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 15:10:34 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45362 Yeah, the main problem is this unspoken acceptance that LeBron and Wade are good enough to beat double teams. Clearly that's not working. I agree with Mullin and Sean here. They have got to stop the isolation plays at the top and run something real. I still think pick and roll is an easy answer. It allows Wade and James to both be heading to the basket at the same time even though there's still only one ball on the court. I can imagine that play drawing at least 4 defenders. Should be easier for their jankier players to shoot open closing shots.

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By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45359 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 14:23:12 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45359 I guess I'd like to know if there is something that LeBron thinks he is doing wrong. The alchoholic knows it's the booze... the obese guy knows it's the food. They have the makings of a basic plan right there--------> to stop doing 'those' things...

But what about LeBron? Does he intend to continue the same way, with the *change* being that he 'makes' the closing shots? Would that be akin to a morbidly obese guy who won't curb his caloric intake----but vows to lose the weight? He'll just be 'better at an unhealthy lifestyle'?

Or does LeBron intend on changing something? It will be interesting to see.

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By: Sean http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996&cpage=1#comment-45355 Mon, 07 Mar 2011 13:13:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8996#comment-45355 The Miami Heat are the gift to ESPN that just keeps giving. After losing again last night to a top team in the closing seconds (which included missed shots by LeBron AND Wade), the head coach reported that 'players were crying' afterwards in the lockeroom.

The loss, missed shots and alleged crying were all the juice ESPN talking heads needed to do their show. ESPN did manage to fit a little constructive basketball talk in there when Chris Mullin opined that LeBron might want to slide down to the block and post up more because driving to the hoop from the top 'isn't there'.

Of course, ESPN made sure they asked Mullin if he ever cried after a tough loss---to which he said 'never... not yet'.

I hope for Miami's sake that it's all contrived and that nobody was crying and that they are feeding ESPN red herring and laughing at them as they chase a non story because ESPN is such a hype machine (and I know the E is for 'entertainment', but just gimme the sports)and they are becoming a reality show instead of a sports report desk---it would be great if ESPN was getting played the fool.

If for some reason Miami players were actually crying, then they got problems. How immature can they get? Unhinged? Just win a couple games against likely 2nd Round playoff participants and end a certain segment of criticism. No crying. Such melodrama if it's true. They'd be getting sucked into their own reality show which are usually about trainwrecks--------nothing to strive for.

I thought what Mullin said about LeBron posting up was interesting, as he is likely NOT a 'hater', but just being objective. Also, what does LeBron mean when he says he will stop failing late in games? Is he going to do something DIFFERENT to achieve that? Like the alcoholic who is going to stop drinking? Alchoholics don't stop failing everyone AND continue drinking. What's LeBron going to stop doing? START doing? You can't keep doing the SAME thing and expect different results. That is what they call crazy.

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