Comments on: 2010-11 Surprise Teams (11-22-2010 edition) http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: storyofgreats http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33993 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 14:51:17 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33993 76-6 is not impossible.Dwyer and Paine are the best.Lebron>Kobe.
End of story.
Thanks.

]]> By: dsong http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33942 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:53:26 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33942 I concede that I was totally off about the Heat. If they keep playing like this, Spoelstra will soon develop that Jim Mora face and start shouting, "Playoffs?!"

Even given their flaws and injuries, I didn't think Miami would be rolled by Indiana at home even with a 38-15 FT advantage.

Lebron needs to play like the legend he is in order for this team to win even 55 games.

]]> By: Ryan. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33937 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:06:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33937 For anybody who reads my posts here, you know I'm not an antagonizer of the stat game. But in the case of the Heat, the numbers are completely deceptive. The team looks absolutely terrible, especially offensively, and if they continue this trend of playing majority of the game with no offensive schemes and no off-ball movement, they will get slaughtered when it comes time to flip the switch.

Watching them play the Pacers today has been like poking hot needles through your f*cking eyes. It's unbearable.

]]> By: Marty http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33922 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 02:10:40 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33922 This is great information Neil. It does surprise me to see OKC outperforming the offensive expectation and the Pacers beating the overall expectation by a good number.

But probably most interesting is a case like the Warriors, who are -1.23 off the offense projection and -3.59 off the defense projection, yet they've outperformed in the win column. Could it be because three of their six losses were absolute blowouts?

]]> By: Greyberger http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33909 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:39:46 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33909 The West as a whole has underperformed (rather high) projections. You predicted 4 West teams to have a negative margin, and Dsmok's predictions said 5, but I don't see how that can be possible without the East getting totally destroyed in games against the West.

Anyway thanks to injuries (Houston) and just plain slackin' (OKC) it's hard to tell the conferences apart. At least without looking at that (already) one-sided conference vs conference record.

]]> By: dsong http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33908 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:38:18 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33908 I'll definitely take the 12-2 start and wouldn't discount their chances of getting home court advantage. If all goes well, it could be a 60+ win season... and perhaps a three-peat.

The season is young but it's always better to start off on the right foot.

]]> By: Jay http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33906 Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:22:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33906 As a Laker fan, all I can say is don't hold your breath for them to keep up the pace. The schedule turns for the worse in a few weeks and you can't possibly expect their offense to keep up this kind of overachieving pace. You can make the argument that they haven't played a single quality team for the year yet. That's pretty incredible. I think it's still too early to even know if the team is any good yet.

]]> By: dsong http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33891 Mon, 22 Nov 2010 21:56:28 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33891 "They were who we thought they were!"

In all seriousness, I'm pleasantly surprised with the Lakers' performance so far. New Orleans and San Antonio have been the other big surprises.

Let's see if any of the three teams can continue the dream pace. Unlikely, but one can always hope.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33865 Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:47:15 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33865 That's an interesting take -- even if the overall efficiency diff. wasn't much of a surprise, the fact that they got there by being so unexpectedly extreme on offense and defense is a big surprise. By that measure, we get:

Year Team Lg Abs(Off) Abs(Def) Tot
2011 MIL NBA 7.62 5.70 13.32
2011 MIA NBA 5.62 4.96 10.57
2011 ORL NBA 4.47 6.06 10.54
2011 NOH NBA 2.85 6.78 9.62
2011 LAL NBA 6.71 2.73 9.44
2011 DEN NBA 4.84 2.18 7.02
2011 OKC NBA 2.34 4.12 6.45
2011 PHO NBA 1.89 4.29 6.18
2011 POR NBA 3.00 2.53 5.53
2011 DAL NBA 3.20 2.31 5.51
2011 LAC NBA 1.67 3.58 5.24
2011 MIN NBA 2.30 2.84 5.15
2011 BOS NBA 3.02 1.98 5.00
2011 CHA NBA 1.87 3.12 4.99
2011 PHI NBA 2.10 2.75 4.85
2011 GSW NBA 1.23 3.59 4.81
2011 CHI NBA 2.31 2.07 4.38
2011 CLE NBA 0.73 3.52 4.25
2011 IND NBA 0.59 3.61 4.20
2011 MEM NBA 3.39 0.41 3.81
2011 ATL NBA 2.09 1.68 3.77
2011 HOU NBA 0.20 3.45 3.65
2011 UTA NBA 2.45 0.87 3.33
2011 SAS NBA 1.43 1.49 2.92
2011 NJN NBA 1.87 0.89 2.75
2011 DET NBA 2.49 0.08 2.58
2011 TOR NBA 0.82 1.74 2.56
2011 SAC NBA 0.38 1.96 2.34
2011 WAS NBA 0.30 2.00 2.30
2011 NYK NBA 0.21 1.81 2.02
]]> By: Jared Ras http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217&cpage=1#comment-33863 Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:35:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8217#comment-33863 Is it right to net the offense and defense rather than using the absolute values? I'm a Bucks fan, and our defense has been better than expected and our offense (much) worse than expected. Netting the two, Milwaukee is at the middle of the pack, but using absolute values, they'd be the most surprising team for better or for worse.

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