Comments on: 2010-11 Surprise Teams (11-22-2010 edition)

By: storyofgreats

storyofgreats — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 14:51:17 +0000

76-6 is not impossible.Dwyer and Paine are the best.Lebron>Kobe.
End of story.
Thanks.

By: dsong

dsong — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:53:26 +0000

I concede that I was totally off about the Heat. If they keep playing like this, Spoelstra will soon develop that Jim Mora face and start shouting, "Playoffs?!"

Even given their flaws and injuries, I didn't think Miami would be rolled by Indiana at home even with a 38-15 FT advantage.

Lebron needs to play like the legend he is in order for this team to win even 55 games.

By: Ryan.

Ryan. — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 03:06:32 +0000

For anybody who reads my posts here, you know I'm not an antagonizer of the stat game. But in the case of the Heat, the numbers are completely deceptive. The team looks absolutely terrible, especially offensively, and if they continue this trend of playing majority of the game with no offensive schemes and no off-ball movement, they will get slaughtered when it comes time to flip the switch.

Watching them play the Pacers today has been like poking hot needles through your f*cking eyes. It's unbearable.

By: Marty

Marty — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 02:10:40 +0000

This is great information Neil. It does surprise me to see OKC outperforming the offensive expectation and the Pacers beating the overall expectation by a good number.

But probably most interesting is a case like the Warriors, who are -1.23 off the offense projection and -3.59 off the defense projection, yet they've outperformed in the win column. Could it be because three of their six losses were absolute blowouts?

By: Greyberger

Greyberger — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:39:46 +0000

The West as a whole has underperformed (rather high) projections. You predicted 4 West teams to have a negative margin, and Dsmok's predictions said 5, but I don't see how that can be possible without the East getting totally destroyed in games against the West. Anyway thanks to injuries (Houston) and just plain slackin' (OKC) it's hard to tell the conferences apart. At least without looking at that (already) one-sided conference vs conference record.

By: dsong

dsong — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:38:18 +0000

I'll definitely take the 12-2 start and wouldn't discount their chances of getting home court advantage. If all goes well, it could be a 60+ win season... and perhaps a three-peat. The season is young but it's always better to start off on the right foot.

By: Jay

Jay — Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:22:35 +0000

As a Laker fan, all I can say is don't hold your breath for them to keep up the pace. The schedule turns for the worse in a few weeks and you can't possibly expect their offense to keep up this kind of overachieving pace. You can make the argument that they haven't played a single quality team for the year yet. That's pretty incredible. I think it's still too early to even know if the team is any good yet.

By: dsong

dsong — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 21:56:28 +0000

"They were who we thought they were!" In all seriousness, I'm pleasantly surprised with the Lakers' performance so far. New Orleans and San Antonio have been the other big surprises. Let's see if any of the three teams can continue the dream pace. Unlikely, but one can always hope.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:47:15 +0000

That's an interesting take -- even if the overall efficiency diff. wasn't much of a surprise, the fact that they got there by being so unexpectedly extreme on offense and defense is a big surprise. By that measure, we get:

Year	Team	Lg	Abs(Off)	Abs(Def)	Tot
2011	MIL	NBA	7.62	5.70	13.32
2011	MIA	NBA	5.62	4.96	10.57
2011	ORL	NBA	4.47	6.06	10.54
2011	NOH	NBA	2.85	6.78	9.62
2011	LAL	NBA	6.71	2.73	9.44
2011	DEN	NBA	4.84	2.18	7.02
2011	OKC	NBA	2.34	4.12	6.45
2011	PHO	NBA	1.89	4.29	6.18
2011	POR	NBA	3.00	2.53	5.53
2011	DAL	NBA	3.20	2.31	5.51
2011	LAC	NBA	1.67	3.58	5.24
2011	MIN	NBA	2.30	2.84	5.15
2011	BOS	NBA	3.02	1.98	5.00
2011	CHA	NBA	1.87	3.12	4.99
2011	PHI	NBA	2.10	2.75	4.85
2011	GSW	NBA	1.23	3.59	4.81
2011	CHI	NBA	2.31	2.07	4.38
2011	CLE	NBA	0.73	3.52	4.25
2011	IND	NBA	0.59	3.61	4.20
2011	MEM	NBA	3.39	0.41	3.81
2011	ATL	NBA	2.09	1.68	3.77
2011	HOU	NBA	0.20	3.45	3.65
2011	UTA	NBA	2.45	0.87	3.33
2011	SAS	NBA	1.43	1.49	2.92
2011	NJN	NBA	1.87	0.89	2.75
2011	DET	NBA	2.49	0.08	2.58
2011	TOR	NBA	0.82	1.74	2.56
2011	SAC	NBA	0.38	1.96	2.34
2011	WAS	NBA	0.30	2.00	2.30
2011	NYK	NBA	0.21	1.81	2.02

By: Jared Ras

Jared Ras — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:35:32 +0000

Is it right to net the offense and defense rather than using the absolute values? I'm a Bucks fan, and our defense has been better than expected and our offense (much) worse than expected. Netting the two, Milwaukee is at the middle of the pack, but using absolute values, they'd be the most surprising team for better or for worse.