Comments on: Optimizing the Rockets II http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: James http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=2#comment-49361 Thu, 19 May 2011 21:22:56 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-49361 There is no way Clyde Drexler was as good as Hakeem Olajuwon in the 1995 playoffs. This is blatant revisionism. Clyde Drexler would be quite embarassed at such a laughable claim. That's the playoff run that catapulted Hakeem into all-time great status. He outplayed two of the best centers in the league, led the Rockets to 4 straight series wins without HCA. The main reason why Drexler played so well in those playoffs is because of Hakeem and Drexler said that himself. He repeatedly insisted Dream was the best player in the league, he's never seen anyone play as well as he did in those playoffs, there should be a reballot for the MVP etc. Glide was rejuvenated playing with Hakeem, these two had a special bond going back to their PhiSlammaJamma days. Hakeem was the key cog in the Rockets offense. Not Drexler. Hakeem was the one who drew all the defensive attention that the shooters and Glide benefitted from. There's a reason Seattle went after Hakeem in 1996 and tripled teamed him on every possession, something tells me they knew a thing or two about the game.

Clyde Drexler was maybe half the player Hakeem was in those playoffs.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16637 Thu, 22 Apr 2010 13:56:44 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16637 Going back through the Rockets' games in the '95 playoffs, I think part of the reason some people are so up in arms about Drexler being compared to Hakeem is because Hakeem's best performances came later in the playoffs, which also featured his "high-profile showdowns" with the Admiral (league MVP) and Shaq (the "future" of the league)...those games will tend to stick in fans' memories more vividly. Drexler had some STELLAR performances in the first two rounds though; his problem was that he slowed down a little just as Hakeem got himself going in the WCF and Finals.

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By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16602 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 13:14:43 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16602 Let's see: biggest movers positively with this new change (dropping versatility) are all pure post players.

Team	Player		SPM	Minutes	Difference
CLE	Leon Powe	-1.63	6.0%	6.63
MIA	Jamaal Magloire	-1.14	9.0%	3.38
OKC	Etan Thomas	-6.04	8.1%	2.50
POR	Jeff Pendergraph-0.33	10.2%	2.48
PHO	Robin Lopez	-0.59	25.0%	2.25
POR	Joel Przybilla	0.38	17.1%	2.21
OKC	Serge Ibaka	-0.92	33.4%	2.15
WAS	Brendan Haywood	1.34	40.7%	2.07
NJN	Sean Williams	-5.34	5.7%	1.74
DEN	Chris Andersen	2.69	42.8%	1.69
CHA	Tyson Chandler	-1.40	29.3%	1.67
TOR	Reggie Evans	-0.56	7.9%	1.58
CLE	J.J. Hickson	-2.50	42.7%	1.54
ORL	Marcin Gortat	-0.33	27.6%	1.52
HOU	Kevin Martin	0.81	21.6%	1.35

And the ones who dropped:

Team	Player		SPM	Minutes	Difference
MEM	Hamed Haddadi	-6.56	6.0%	-1.80
LAC	Craig Smith	-0.84	31.3%	-1.78
NOH	Aaron Gray	1.23	6.6%	-1.69
MIN	Brian Cardinal	-0.75	6.7%	-1.43
NJN	Eduardo Najera	-3.66	5.2%	-1.40
WAS	Fabricio Oberto	-3.10	16.4%	-1.40
IND	Roy Hibbert	-1.82	51.6%	-1.35
NOH	Hilton Armstrong-3.13	6.0%	-1.32
CLE	LeBron James	12.51	75.0%	-1.29
NYK	David Lee	1.39	75.9%	-1.24
CLE	Shaquille O'Neal-0.59	31.3%	-1.23
GSW	Mikki Moore	-4.96	10.3%	-1.17
SAS	Tim Duncan	5.00	61.6%	-1.16
PHI	Jason Smith	-3.32	16.6%	-1.16
TOR	Hedo Turkoglu	0.79	57.4%	-1.15
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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16596 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 08:16:33 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16596 Also, I'll have to run those other regressions you requested later. Sorry I keep putting it off.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16595 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 08:13:37 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16595 DSM, here's the regression without the versatility term:

Residuals:
      Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
-19.77436  -3.06230   0.09454   3.15127  18.08864 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -7.63483    1.36781  -5.582 2.70e-08 ***
pts40        0.80394    0.10274   7.825 8.07e-15 ***
tsa40       -1.37758    0.19088  -7.217 7.45e-13 ***
tsa40^2      0.01815    0.00517   3.510 0.000457 ***
3pa40        0.42556    0.07036   6.048 1.74e-09 ***
fta40        0.42231    0.10522   4.013 6.20e-05 ***
ast40        0.69283    0.08403   8.245 2.90e-16 ***
orb40        0.50781    0.16804   3.022 0.002543 ** 
drb40        0.39389    0.09694   4.063 5.02e-05 ***
tov40       -1.57465    0.23722  -6.638 4.06e-11 ***
stl40        2.70845    0.27003  10.030  < 2e-16 ***
blk40        0.99447    0.18518   5.370 8.75e-08 ***
mpg          0.07715    0.01731   4.456 8.79e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

Residual standard error: 4.871 on 2052 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.2803,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.2761 
F-statistic: 66.61 on 12 and 2052 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16 

That's not horrible -- there definitely wasn't as big a drop-off in fit as I thought there'd be.

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16593 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 04:24:36 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16593 Neil - the way you were modifying the SPM formula throughout this post is what made me ask in the first place. I think it would be a great addition because it measures such different things than WS or PER.

Very interesting to see Clyde's and Dream's ORtgs laid out like that. I've very surprised Hakeem's were so low (relative to his skill level / success), and it's also probably telling that Drexler's regular season ORtg didn't change at all when he moved from Portland to Houston in '95. He was in the middle of his most efficient year when he got traded, and he kept it up.

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By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16591 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 01:08:52 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16591

You can get all mad if you want me to and claim that I'm just trying to avoid WS because its giving me a result that I don't like, but I gave you enough reason why I think that Drexler's scoring performance was inflated.

Even if this were the case, you seemed all but ready to dismiss the entire metric altogether based on this one example. That's not a valid way to critique anything from an objective standpoint. And by the way, this isn't a straw man argument by any means. Simply an attempt to remind people what the goal of this whole blog and these stats are in the first place: to give as accurate a representation of the sport as possible. Names and results simply reflect the construction, philosophies, and methodologies of the metric in question. Those things are more important than finding a way to spit out the name "Hakeem" or "Clyde" when someone asks who the best offensive player for the Rockets in the '95 playoffs was, for example.

Also, this whole thing reminds me of the "80/20" argument that Bill James used in his studies. Asking questions is fine, but people shouldn't be so quick to dismiss something because it gives a result you don't expect. That is part of the nature of learning.

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By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16589 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 00:25:15 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16589 I might add--Ilardi's APM is actually split into offensive and defensive APM.

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By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16588 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 00:24:13 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16588 Neil: You saw the six-year APM that Ilardi calculated, right? Of course, the problem with it is that he weighted the playoffs at 2x the regular season. That isn't too big a deal, though, since we're using per-possession stats anyway. I presume that the playoffs should be a slightly better measure of a player's true contribution, at any rate.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519&cpage=1#comment-16587 Wed, 21 Apr 2010 00:17:42 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=5519#comment-16587

Neil - Any plan to add SPM to the play index and player profile pages?

I'd like to at some point, but Justin and I have to work on cleaning up the formula and making it as rigorous as possible. Which is sort of what we've been doing in this thread, too.

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