Clyde Drexler was maybe half the player Hakeem was in those playoffs.
]]>Team Player SPM Minutes Difference CLE Leon Powe -1.63 6.0% 6.63 MIA Jamaal Magloire -1.14 9.0% 3.38 OKC Etan Thomas -6.04 8.1% 2.50 POR Jeff Pendergraph-0.33 10.2% 2.48 PHO Robin Lopez -0.59 25.0% 2.25 POR Joel Przybilla 0.38 17.1% 2.21 OKC Serge Ibaka -0.92 33.4% 2.15 WAS Brendan Haywood 1.34 40.7% 2.07 NJN Sean Williams -5.34 5.7% 1.74 DEN Chris Andersen 2.69 42.8% 1.69 CHA Tyson Chandler -1.40 29.3% 1.67 TOR Reggie Evans -0.56 7.9% 1.58 CLE J.J. Hickson -2.50 42.7% 1.54 ORL Marcin Gortat -0.33 27.6% 1.52 HOU Kevin Martin 0.81 21.6% 1.35
And the ones who dropped:
Team Player SPM Minutes Difference MEM Hamed Haddadi -6.56 6.0% -1.80 LAC Craig Smith -0.84 31.3% -1.78 NOH Aaron Gray 1.23 6.6% -1.69 MIN Brian Cardinal -0.75 6.7% -1.43 NJN Eduardo Najera -3.66 5.2% -1.40 WAS Fabricio Oberto -3.10 16.4% -1.40 IND Roy Hibbert -1.82 51.6% -1.35 NOH Hilton Armstrong-3.13 6.0% -1.32 CLE LeBron James 12.51 75.0% -1.29 NYK David Lee 1.39 75.9% -1.24 CLE Shaquille O'Neal-0.59 31.3% -1.23 GSW Mikki Moore -4.96 10.3% -1.17 SAS Tim Duncan 5.00 61.6% -1.16 PHI Jason Smith -3.32 16.6% -1.16 TOR Hedo Turkoglu 0.79 57.4% -1.15]]>
Residuals:
Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
-19.77436 -3.06230 0.09454 3.15127 18.08864
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -7.63483 1.36781 -5.582 2.70e-08 ***
pts40 0.80394 0.10274 7.825 8.07e-15 ***
tsa40 -1.37758 0.19088 -7.217 7.45e-13 ***
tsa40^2 0.01815 0.00517 3.510 0.000457 ***
3pa40 0.42556 0.07036 6.048 1.74e-09 ***
fta40 0.42231 0.10522 4.013 6.20e-05 ***
ast40 0.69283 0.08403 8.245 2.90e-16 ***
orb40 0.50781 0.16804 3.022 0.002543 **
drb40 0.39389 0.09694 4.063 5.02e-05 ***
tov40 -1.57465 0.23722 -6.638 4.06e-11 ***
stl40 2.70845 0.27003 10.030 < 2e-16 ***
blk40 0.99447 0.18518 5.370 8.75e-08 ***
mpg 0.07715 0.01731 4.456 8.79e-06 ***
---
Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Residual standard error: 4.871 on 2052 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.2803, Adjusted R-squared: 0.2761
F-statistic: 66.61 on 12 and 2052 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
That's not horrible -- there definitely wasn't as big a drop-off in fit as I thought there'd be.
]]>Very interesting to see Clyde's and Dream's ORtgs laid out like that. I've very surprised Hakeem's were so low (relative to his skill level / success), and it's also probably telling that Drexler's regular season ORtg didn't change at all when he moved from Portland to Houston in '95. He was in the middle of his most efficient year when he got traded, and he kept it up.
]]>You can get all mad if you want me to and claim that I'm just trying to avoid WS because its giving me a result that I don't like, but I gave you enough reason why I think that Drexler's scoring performance was inflated.
Even if this were the case, you seemed all but ready to dismiss the entire metric altogether based on this one example. That's not a valid way to critique anything from an objective standpoint. And by the way, this isn't a straw man argument by any means. Simply an attempt to remind people what the goal of this whole blog and these stats are in the first place: to give as accurate a representation of the sport as possible. Names and results simply reflect the construction, philosophies, and methodologies of the metric in question. Those things are more important than finding a way to spit out the name "Hakeem" or "Clyde" when someone asks who the best offensive player for the Rockets in the '95 playoffs was, for example.
Also, this whole thing reminds me of the "80/20" argument that Bill James used in his studies. Asking questions is fine, but people shouldn't be so quick to dismiss something because it gives a result you don't expect. That is part of the nature of learning.
]]>Neil - Any plan to add SPM to the play index and player profile pages?
I'd like to at some point, but Justin and I have to work on cleaning up the formula and making it as rigorous as possible. Which is sort of what we've been doing in this thread, too.
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