Comments on: More On 3-Point Contest Shooting Rates

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:18:53 +0000

Partying? NBA players? Never!

By: Downpuppy

Downpuppy — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:13:59 +0000

One other thing about the AllStar break is that it is a break for these guys.

Balanced against the lack of defense is the massive partying.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:25:53 +0000

(Note: All 893 games of Walker's career were games in which he would have taken at least 1 4-pointer, if said shot actually existed.)

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 17:24:32 +0000

And in games where he would have taken fours, he didn't miss any of them.

By: edkupfer

edkupfer — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:49:28 +0000

Fun Antoine Walker fact: in games where he attempted 10 or more threes (there were 70 of these games!), he shot 40% from behind the arc. In games where he attempted fewer than 10, he shot 31%.

By: Ryan J. Parker

Ryan J. Parker — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 16:08:02 +0000

Thanks for the data set! The models I fit, however, agree with your original analysis.

Using glmer() I fit a multilevel model that suggests the average contestant will shoot invlogit(-0.37240) = 0.408 in the regular season, while they will shoot invlogit(-0.37240+0.42077) = 0.512 in the contest. Jason Kapono from 2007 rates as the best shooter, and Antoine Walker from 2003 rates the worst. Someone page Ed!

You get similar results from a normal logistic regression fit with glm().

In any event, this type of data is best analyzed using these kinds of models. Trying to wade through all of the varying sample sizes / associated noise is a nightmare.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:56:13 +0000

Wow, Antoine Walker was in this contest. In his 3rd consecutive year to lead the league in 3FGA (2003), he shot at his career average of .323. He may have been as high as .350 when he was invited.

Jordan owns the worst performance of all time -- 4 of 25 = .167 ?

By: Gabe

Gabe — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 13:13:16 +0000

it stands to reason that players who are asked to come back to the contest for a second time (or more) are naturally going to be those who performed well, or at least better than "average" in their prior contests. I don't necessarily buy this. I think it has more to do with how well a player is shooting that specific year in the regular season. The one exception I can think of is that last year's winner is almost always brought back to defend their crown. This comes to mind because in 2005 Voshon Lenard was injured for the whole first half of the year, but came to All-Star Weekend to defend his 2004 3-Point Shootout win, and basically was hobbling around out there on one leg.