Projected Offensive & Defensive SPM

Using only the per-36-minute statistics predicted by the Simple Projection System, one can estimate Offensive or Defensive Adjusted Plus-Minus with the following regression equations:

Offensive Plus-Minus

Call:
lm(formula = OAPM ~ FG + FGA + TP + FT + ORB + AST + STL + TOV + PF)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
-5.13794 -1.23187  0.01173  1.09018  7.36712 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -7.73044    0.83793  -9.226  < 2e-16 ***
FG           2.14564    0.25874   8.293 1.62e-15 ***
FGA         -0.71139    0.12815  -5.551 5.12e-08 ***
TP           1.85664    0.17997  10.316  < 2e-16 ***
FT           0.89362    0.10837   8.246 2.27e-15 ***
ORB          0.74030    0.15567   4.756 2.75e-06 ***
AST          0.79719    0.08615   9.253  < 2e-16 ***
STL          0.69587    0.27083   2.569   0.0105 *
TOV         -1.75565    0.26956  -6.513 2.17e-10 ***
PF          -0.25451    0.12843  -1.982   0.0482 *
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

Residual standard error: 1.881 on 408 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.6455,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.6377
F-statistic: 82.56 on 9 and 408 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16  > coef(reg)
(Intercept)          FG         FGA          TP          FT         ORB
 -7.7304404   2.1456386  -0.7113870   1.8566406   0.8936173   0.7403006
        AST         STL         TOV          PF
  0.7971895   0.6958691  -1.7556465  -0.2545127

Defensive Plus-Minus

Call:
lm(formula = DAPM ~ FGA + ORB + TRB + STL + BLK)

Residuals:
     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max
-6.51719 -1.25095 -0.08884  1.25526  7.59415 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -3.25784    0.68217  -4.776 2.49e-06 ***
FGA         -0.16815    0.04069  -4.133 4.35e-05 ***
ORB         -0.90786    0.26579  -3.416 0.000699 ***
TRB          0.60231    0.11635   5.177 3.54e-07 ***
STL          2.22779    0.29249   7.617 1.80e-13 ***
BLK          0.74019    0.21077   3.512 0.000494 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1 

Residual standard error: 2.157 on 412 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared: 0.2772,     Adjusted R-squared: 0.2685
F-statistic: 31.61 on 5 and 412 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16  > coef(reg)
(Intercept)         FGA         ORB         TRB         STL         BLK
 -3.2578363  -0.1681474  -0.9078586   0.6023129   2.2277856   0.7401877

Regression was run on the composite offensive and defensive adjusted plus-minus statistics of all players with 1300 or more minutes from 2006-09.