It's a lot like the annual conundrum in picking NFL playoff teams... Logic would seem to tell us not to pick most of last year's playoff teams to return the following year, because historically there's a 50% turnover rate from year to year. But while we know 6 of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year won't be back, and 6 new teams will take their place, we have no way of knowing which teams they will be. That's why picking 100% of last year's playoff teams produces a lower error in the long run than trying to determine the 6 teams dropping out and the 6 teams moving up, even though people will look at your picks and say, "you moron, don't you know that 50% of playoff teams drop out the next year?"

In the NBA, you minimize your RMSE by hedging your bets and having no team win more than 54 games, even though people will look at your picks and say, "you moron, don't you know there are 60-win and 60-loss teams every season?"

Yeah, I even hear that over on APBRmetrics. Technically, it's not correct to do that, but the numbers certainly look prettier!

On a barely-related topic, here's a page with simple per-36mp projections for every veteran player who played over the past 3 years:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?page_id=7954

That covers guys like Yao who didn't play in 2010.

Advanced SPM Player and Team Projections

I doubt all of the Miami stars' offense will come through intact (like these numbers show--it would be a historic offense rivaling Dallas in '05), but their defense may be better than the player's numbers would project.

The full results:

TM     Margin    Rest     SoS     Total     Team            Wins
MIA    11.84    -0.11    -0.71    12.45     Miami           68.5
POR     5.57    -0.05     0.10     5.43     Portland        54.9
SAS     4.74     0.10     0.06     4.78     San Antonio     53.4
ORL     3.92    -0.18    -0.29     4.04     Orlando         51.5
ATL     3.57    -0.07    -0.36     3.85     Atlanta         51.1
BOS     3.00     0.02    -0.42     3.44     Boston          50.0
LAL     3.49    -0.18    -0.01     3.32     LA Lakers       49.7
DEN     3.27    -0.11     0.01     3.14     Denver          49.3
CHI     2.31     0.23    -0.47     3.01     Chicago         48.9
UTA     2.78    -0.01     0.11     2.66     Utah            48.0
OKC     2.36     0.12     0.00     2.47     Oklahoma City   47.5
NOH     2.36     0.01     0.21     2.15     New Orleans     46.7
DAL     1.06     0.08     0.24     0.91     Dallas          43.4
PHO     0.45     0.01     0.27     0.19     Phoenix         41.5
GSW     0.28    -0.17     0.14    -0.03     Golden State    40.9
MIL    -0.78     0.21    -0.10    -0.47     Milwaukee       39.8
HOU    -0.64    -0.04     0.12    -0.80     Houston         38.9
MEM    -0.88     0.06     0.16    -0.98     Memphis         38.4
CHA    -2.32     0.13    -0.01    -2.19     Charlotte       35.2
PHI    -2.46    -0.17    -0.21    -2.41     Philadelphia    34.6
NYK    -2.81    -0.19     0.00    -3.01     New York        33.1
CLE    -3.51     0.24    -0.05    -3.22     Cleveland       32.5
NJN    -3.69    -0.03    -0.08    -3.65     New Jersey      31.4
DET    -3.78    -0.04     0.02    -3.84     Detroit         31.0
SAC    -4.35     0.11     0.38    -4.62     Sacramento      29.0
IND    -4.65    -0.09    -0.09    -4.65     Indiana         29.0
WAS    -4.61     0.03     0.12    -4.70     Washington      28.8
LAC    -5.09    -0.10     0.30    -5.49     LA Clippers     26.9
TOR    -5.69    -0.02     0.05    -5.76     Toronto         26.3
MIN    -5.74     0.20     0.52    -6.06     Minnesota       25.6