Comments on: Seizing the Moment in Crucial Games http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Joe Schaller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17810 Tue, 01 Jun 2010 00:45:37 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17810 More great lists from Neil Paine. Notable is the starking contrast between Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson. This also reinforces what any stats guy should already know, Kobe's "clutch" status is way overrated. The last list is most signficant and if you look at names with at least 10 games unexpected guys like Travis Best, Jerome Kersey, Shawn Kemp, Todd MacCulloch and Charlie Ward have very impressive numbers.

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By: AYC http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17694 Sat, 29 May 2010 04:18:03 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17694 Hakeeeeem! Neck and neck with MJ....

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17688 Sat, 29 May 2010 00:23:24 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17688 82games actually looked at that in 2009:

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

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By: DDA http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17687 Fri, 28 May 2010 23:33:26 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17687 Neil,

One thing I've been trying to tell my friends about Kobe is despite his reputation as a "the best clutch player in the game"...just how many last minute winning playoff shots has he actually hit? I can't remember any. On LA's sports talk radio station, they have been talking about how loud Staples Center was after Artest hit his shot and comparing it to Fisher's last second dagger against the Spurs, Horry's big shots, etc. Nobody remembers any of Kobe's. Can you do an analysis on this and find out who really is the best at hitting last second winners in playoff games?

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By: themojojedi http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17665 Fri, 28 May 2010 05:34:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17665 Thanks Neil, I'm glad we cool :)

I'm actually a Team Hakeem guy too, so let's not go there I guess.

Amazing game tonight for sure, I've been convulsing for the last hour.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17662 Fri, 28 May 2010 03:41:02 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17662 Artest! Wow!

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17661 Fri, 28 May 2010 03:40:09 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17661 I actually agree with Lakers fans (ewww!). I always like to drop the under 21 and over 33 seasons to try to find a more exemplary picture of a player's ability, because those too young and too old seasons skew things and aren't really what we mean when we ask, "how good is / was this player?". I ran the averages for Jordan and Kobe based on the first table, and both players appear to have been pressing a bit in these games.

Jordan: 42.3min 32.2pts 6.2rbs 5.4asts 1.8stls .8blks 3.1tos 46%fg 35%fg3 84%ft
Kobe: 41.5min 25.2pts 5.3rbs 4.9asts 1.4stls .8blks 2.7tos 43%fg 34%fg3 80%ft

Now the sample size for Jordan is very select. '91 to '98 is almost entirely championship years. However, it also includes his uneven '95 playoffs after baseball and his '98 season where he was 35. Kobe's entire career is in here. They are both shooting about 2-3% lower than their playoff averages from the field with very close to their playoff averages in production (though I doubt Jordan's total playoff averages would be that low if we included the 1985-1990 seasons as well, so his drop off in "crucial" games may or may not be more pronounced than that).

My point being, that when we include all of Kobe's seasons this way, we see that his drop off during these crucial games is almost non-existent. So if he's as good as ever in big games... that's not bad, right? Coming out basically even in big pressure situations is sort of a win as regards rising to the occasion (when we're assuming lesser players shrink). It's all MJ could manage.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17660 Fri, 28 May 2010 03:39:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17660 Thanks. And I apologize for assuming you were one of "those" irrational Laker fans. I also apologize if it seems like I exclusively take shots at Kobe -- I can assure you that if, say, Carmelo Anthony was regarded by many to be the best player in the league, I would take shots at him often instead, since both have a reputation that is slightly higher than is deserved from their numbers. But Kobe is the guy that has that rep, not Carmelo, so he's the one whose mythology it seems like I'm constantly battling.

For what it's worth, Kobe is having a great crucial game tonight, and would move up on this list if I ran it again tomorrow. And I'd like to investigate the quality of playoff defenses he's faced vs. that of other stars -- I might actually write that tomorrow. I guess I was upset because many people don't seem to understand that I only have a finite amount of time to write these posts, I've cranked out one a day since the playoffs started, and I do many other things for Sports-Reference beyond this blog (it's actually a small % of my total job).

But it's OK, no hard feelings on my part. I'll try to take less of a "take him down a peg" approach to players like Bryant and Hakeem Olajuwon (guys whose reputations are slightly better than their stats) in the future.

Btw - heckuva game, wouldn't you say? :)

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By: themojojedi http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17659 Fri, 28 May 2010 03:27:22 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17659 I don't have any burning desire for Kobe to show up highly on these lists, nor do I think you have any ulterior motives before or while you're creating them. I don't mind what you point out about Kobe, negative or otherwise, its just the number of snide jabs you repeatedly and almost exclusively take at him that irks me (as well as other Laker fans I take it). I don't recall getting on your case before though, just the straw that broke the camel's back.

Also, your last question seems to be suggesting that I have some delusional view of Kobe and that with your lists you're helping me see the error of my ways. Don't lump me and all Kobe/Laker fans into some "Kobe=GOAT, Kobe's never had a bad game" loony bin. Is context not a reason worth discussing for Kobe's position on this list and others? Take a look at the breakdown of playoff defenses (statistically by DRtg, EFG% defense etc ,and also qualitatively by All-D selections for perimeter defenders,All-D selections + DPOY for interior defenders) that Kobe has faced in his career vs the defenses faced by other elite perimeter scorers of this generation and the past. The difference is not insignificant.

I regret, and apologise for, taking a stab at the general quality of your analysis because I do enjoy reading your posts and have noticed that you are very good about taking on feedback and making adjustments to improve your methodology. This is an admirable quality which it seems few possess though many would benefit from.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132&cpage=1#comment-17658 Fri, 28 May 2010 02:41:50 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6132#comment-17658 The second half of Game 5? But I'm not done arguing yet!

FYI: 45 of Kobe's 50 "crucial" games came in the year 2000 or later.

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