Comments on: Layups: Heat ‘Big Three’ Not the Sum of their Parts http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35660 Sun, 05 Dec 2010 19:32:26 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35660 He's had about 26 PER on a solid defensive team after the first three games, I just think he needed a little time.

The last couple of games help.

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By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35192 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 23:15:44 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35192 I've been defending LeBron since the decision, on this board and other places. It's because I've always seen maximum effort from him. But what I saw from him this year so far has not looked like maximum effort. Wade may suck, but it's not from a lack of trying. I fully expect them to turn this around and be dangerous in the playoffs. I'm just disappoint that LeBron has not been able to deal with the mental challenges of a scenario he helped devise.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35148 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 18:36:48 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35148 Also #21, I'd imagine adjusting to the player with the highest usage rate in the league, when you're also a player who needs the ball would take time.

Neil seems to have found a trend in September that mentions this. I think their talent will win out, they were 8-4, top 2 in SRS before Wade's injury against the Bobcats.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35146 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 18:35:01 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35146 #21 Wow stop trying to put it all on leBron. As if Wade has had close to as good a season as "struggling" LeBron.

Wade got hurt in Charlotte and he's been mostly garbage ever since, aside from the Wizards game. He went 7-43 before finally bouncing back. He's just not completely healthy.

Reality is he's being asked to distribute too much, when he should be even more aggressive if anything. You don't tell LeBron James to stop attacking the rim, he's getting the wrong idea.

And remember what Neil said about SRS, it is not nearly as bad as people think. LeBron needs to be aggressive, Wade needs to keep attacking as well he was just fine until he got hurt.

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By: RobertAugustdeMeijer http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35136 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 17:22:37 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35136 What makes me wonder is how come the Thrice aren't as effective as Jordan+Pippen+Grant, Magic+Worthy+(Old)Kareem, Kobe+Ariza/Artest+Gasol, Isiah+Dumars(before he shot 3pters)+Laimbeer?
I find all these setups comparable, right?

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By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35111 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 15:07:58 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35111 RE #19

I don't think most teams have the personal to cover this. If you're forgetting, LeBron is built like a power forward. If you've got a Chalmers, Miller, and/or House out there with them and 1 more big, then a big almost has to cover LBJ. Even without that, it's not that easy to just switch on these two and not expect a mismatch.

Vs. Boston, Ray Allen is on Wade, and Pierce is on Bron. Can Allen possible deal with LeBron's size and muscle when he's rolling to the hoop? Can Pierce handle the extra speed Wade has on him?

Vs. LA - same thing. We've got Artest trying to switch onto Wade, and Kobe trying to stop Bron streaking to the basket.

The Spurs? Ginobili? Can he cover either of those guys WITHOUT a PnR?

Most teams don't have the right sizes at 2 and 3 to cover it.

Even when the other team switches on every PnR, there have to be decisions made. That's the beauty of PnR. It forces the defense to react. There are so many options. Wade can go with the pick and then cross back, LeBron can slip. LeBron can feign the pick and cut. etc etc

It also draws attention from other defenders and make them decide whether to help or not, who you already know are leaning toward Bron and Wade anyway. Of course, all of this is predicated on LeBron being willing to be a setup man, recipient, or decoy for Wade. And while I never doubted it for a second in Cleveland, I am beginning to wonder if this guy has was it takes to truly sacrifice for the team.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35050 Wed, 01 Dec 2010 02:46:56 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35050 Re: #17 - Follow-up post on the probability that Wade/James' decline in production is just an unlucky stretch of bad games:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8309

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By: Anon x 2 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35041 Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:59:43 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35041 As for the Lebron/Wade PnR I'm not sure why people are calling for it.

The purpose of the PnR is to create one of 3 things

A. Space for a quick shot (often a 3)
B. A defensive mismatch
C. An overplay

That's why a PnR is usually run with a perimeter player and a big. If there's a switch, then you have speed against the big or size against the smaller guy. But Lebron and Wade are the same player so they're being defended by the same player. All you have to is switch or go under the screen. Now, going under the screen usually leads to an open shot, but neither Wade or Lebron are good 3 point shooters or good 20 foot shooters, therefore you simply go under the pick or switch and it's neutralized.

The answer doesn't rely on a lebon/wade Pick N Roll. It relies on more off-ball movement or Lebron finally developing a post-up game. The real issue is neither of them are good outside shooters and it's hurting the offense. Often one guy does nothing when the other has the ball. And by nothing, I mean just stand around doing nothing.

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By: Anon x 2 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35039 Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:54:34 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35039 Neil - how are the Heat at live ball turnovers? Forcing a 24 second call, a charge, etc don't have the same impact as a steal or block. One leads to half-court offense, the other to possible fast breaks.

I don't know the answer, but I wonder if the answer might give us a reason why they seem to never fast break.

Also how often teams score in the paint. Again, I don't know the answer, just curious if the answer helps us understand what's going on.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291&cpage=1#comment-35036 Tue, 30 Nov 2010 23:15:01 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8291#comment-35036 Yes, it's an incredibly small sample. But you also have to ask what's more likely -- that James and Wade just coincidentally have some of the worst 18-game stretches of their careers immediately upon joining the same team, or that their declines represent some kind of problem endemic to their new situation.

In fact, I may be able to study this: Set up a Monte Carlo simulation based on their career game scores, simulate 18 games a million times, and see how often both play at this level simultaneously due to random chance alone.

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