Perception isn't always reallity my friend. If you thought at the time Kareem was outplayd by Reed, Wilt, Cowens, Walton and Parish you were just flat out wrong. All the evidence - detailed stats and accurate observation, ect - show otherwise. Kareem flat out dominated Reed in '70, Wilt in '72, Cowens in '74 and Walton in '77 and he clearly outplayed Parish in '84 and would've won the finals MVP had game 7 gone the other way as he was LA's best player that series -- Magic and Worthy choked that one away. In '70 NY had a much better all-around team and killed Milwaukee everywhere but center, especially the backcourt. In both '72 and '74 Oscar and McGlocklin were banged up and not near 100 percent and healthy LA and Boston backcourts killed them. LA probably wins with Oscar and Johnny Mac healthy in '72 and throw in a healthy Lucius Allen in '74 and there's no question the Bucks win that one. I give Wilt credit for forcing Jabbar into a subpar shooting effort, but Kareem still whipped him and won most battles in the clutch - he just didn't have the help Wilt had with West, Goodrich and Hairston. Of course Wilt was past his prime, so that's no knock on him at all. In '74 Kareem just killed Cowens over the first 6 games and it took Heinsohn inserting constant double and triple teams into his game plan in game 7, plus a terrible game from Oscar, to somewhat slow Kareem down. Even with how well Hondo played Kareem still should've been MVP of that series in a losing effort because he was flat out the most dominant player with the 2 biggest clutch plays of the series - his block on Cowens to force OT in game 2 and obviously the winning skyhook in game 6. In '77 Kareem was without Allen again - missed 2 games and played sparingly at nowhere near 100 percent the other 2 games with the toe injury, plus Kermit Washington was out for all 4 games. With those 2 healthy LA takes Portland to 6 or 7 games and may very well have won despite Portland being a clearly better all-around team contrary to revisionist history. Walton had a great opening quarter of the series when Kareem was tired after carrying LA past the Barry,Parish/Ray Golden State team in arguably the most dominanting 7-game playoff series performance in NBA history, and Bill also stepped up huge in the 4th quarter of game 3 after Portland used constant triple teams to wear Jabbar down. But other than those 2 quarters Kareem had his way with Walton and single-handidly kept LA in the last 3 games. Now Kareem did struggle big time against Thurmond despite winning the statitcial battle in '73 and that was the primary reason the Bucks were upset. But Kareem also beat Nate twice, along with Chamberlain once, Unseld once, Issel twice, Gilmore twice and Parish 3 times. Moses ranks right with Thurmond in terms of giving Jabbar the most headaches - literaly and figuratively - and he's the 1 center who got the better of him more often than not, but that came after his prime. When Houston upset LA in '81 Moses averaged 31 and 17.5 but Kareem put up 27 and 17 with more assists and blocks - it was piss poor play by Magic and clutch shooting from Dunleavy and crew that really did LA in (plus the fact it was 1 of those silly best-of-3 seires they thankfully did away with). No question Moses dominated Kareem in the '83 finals, but Jabbar was 36 then. Hakeem also got the better of Kareem in '86, but Jabbar was now freakin 39 with no back up and Hakeem needed Sampson's help. As for the '85 finals, Jabbar had already proven himself against great centers, win or lose as a team, and had acheived every individaul and team accolade on the planet. It was LA finally getting the Boston monkey off its back and Kareem being the primary driving force behind that as the series MVP at 38 that made that so special for him.

Also, you do know that the playoffs don't start with the finals, right? Shaq's Magic lost in the 3rd round to MJ's Bulls in 96.

Finally, Shaq won 3 straight titles for LA, and you rip him for not scoring less like Wilt? You do know Shaq has twice as many championships as Wilt right? That Kareem has 3 times as many? Can I have some of what you're smoking?

Yes, Lew Alcindor in 1972 was still widely considered the imminent Greatest Player Ever, just needing to bide his time to surpass Bill Russell. The excuse that 'great players lose' was rejected as Wiltonistic selfish rationalizing, despite Chamberlain's carefully documented case studies of West, Big O, Pettit, and others not-having won many titles, either.

All those considerations and expectations eventually came tumbling down, especially after Jabbar lost to Thurmond in 1973, followed by Cowens in 1974. You can say 40 years later that Kareem 'outplayed' Cowens, but that's not what folks at the time saw. We saw a variation of the Russ-vs-Wilt theme, reinforced by Reed-vs-Wilt and Daniels-vs-Gilmore. Goliaths seemed bound to lose. Walton beating Jabbar (despite more stat-stuffing from Kareem) furthered the perception. By the time LA won a title with rookie Magic Johnson starting at Center and rolling in hook shots of his own, Jabbar's mystique was kaput. That's why 1985 was so important for Kareem, and he to his credit admits it was his finest moment.

Shaq didn't play in an NBA Finals in 1996, but he was indeed whuppped by Hakeem Olajuwon in 1995. Someday we statmen will have to learn that sometimes less is more. Inspired by Sharman, Chamberlain played the Russell role to perfection, resulting in the greatest team of all time. One has to wonder why Shaquille O'Neal never caught on to that and subdued his PPG to 14.8 while leading the NBA in Rebounds and making First Team All-D as Dipper did. By this stage of his career it's clear that LeBron James isn't capable of (or at least interested in) jumping Center and playing all five positions en route to a performance like that of 20-year-old Magic Johnson in Game Six of 1980. Some players are 'expected' to be great while others 'expect' to be handed championships just for showing up.

Also, you forgot that Kareem beat Wilt's Lakers in '71.

KDE replied: The HoF Centers mentioned -- Wilt, Nate, Big Reds Cowens/Walton, Moses, Parish -- didn't have to rack up higher statistics than Jabbar to beat him in the playoffs. For a fresh lesson, see the '010 LBJ. The best example of an all-around stat-stuffer leading a titlist remains Julius Erving in the Bicentennial Year (MJ's Rebs/Assists fell significantly once Pippen took to running the Bulls on both ends).

That said, the larger point is that Kareem finally rose to the occasion in 1985, indeed "beating the expectations" by winning a big one over Bob Parish. Up to that point, conventional wisdom aka expectations held that Kareem would find a way to succumb to the luck of the Irish. The Memorial Day Massacre reinforced this expectation, natch.

Earlier this week Jabbar himself acknowledged his greatest athletic accomplishment as having been the 1985 Finals performance. Most of us present at the time would have to agree. Thanks to Kareem finally getting the monkey off his back in a big-time series against a Center his size (Unseld didn't count), the Lakers gained the confidence to win again in '87 thanks to Magic's Jr Sky Hook that forever put him ahead of Bird in their own individual rivalry.

We calculate Johnson's expected WS/48 as (6*2567*0.191 + 3*2907*0.207 + 2991*0.207 + 1000*0.100) / (6*2567 + 3*2907 + 2991+1000) = 0.194

Repeat this for every player, and you have a very basic preseason expectation for how each player would produce in 1985.