Comments on: Which Offensive Rate Stats Stay Consistent When a Player Changes Teams/Roles? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Guy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37916 Tue, 28 Dec 2010 13:28:02 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37916 Neil/7: Great, look forward to the future post.

Let me also toss a question into the mix regarding this point: "Shooting/offensive efficiency is actually far more impacted when a player changes teams than when he changes roles. This suggests that a team's system, coaching effects, and teammate interactions play a much bigger role in determining shooting percentages than "skill curve" effects." This seems very important if true, and may well be right. But I worry that significant changes in a player's role could be the result of, rather than cause of, changes in their shooting efficiency. If improving players are allowed to increase usage, it will mask a "usage tax" on their efficiency. If declining/aging/hurt players reduce usage, the reverse would happen. So I think isolating the impact of usage requires looking at essentially involuntary changes in usage. (Which is what Eli Witus tried to measure in his lineup study.) All that said, your evidence seems pretty strong.

I also wonder whether correlations are the best way to compare your four groups. Because the 4 groups presumably vary in terms of sample size, average age, and, most importantly, the talent variance within each group, correlations might differ for multiple reasons. I think it might be better to measure the average absolute change in each stat (e.g. does TS% change less for role changers than team changers?). And (still in the category of suggestions for "work someone else should do") it might be fruitful to divide role changers into two groups: increased role and reduced role. If sample size permits, that might clarify the picture a bit.

]]>
By: kelfala m http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37833 Sun, 26 Dec 2010 22:22:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37833 I personally think that touches would be affected the most. Take Lebron James for instance. Great Post i never really thought about this issue

]]>
By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37674 Fri, 24 Dec 2010 15:14:51 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37674 Re: Guy - Interesting comments/questions, ones which deserve their own post when I get the time. I'll try to give those a shot after the holidays.

]]>
By: anon x 2 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37619 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 23:33:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37619 Interesting to see FT change so much when changing roles and teams. I wonder if this is because players that are more volatile at FTs are more likely to change teams and roles?

]]>
By: Nathan Walker http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37608 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 20:22:52 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37608 This is awesome! Great work (as always)!

]]>
By: Guy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37575 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 16:57:07 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37575 And a question: when a player changes teams, is there a correlation between the change in TS% and the difference in the two teams' TS%. That is, does moving to a higher efficiency team improve (or lower) the player's efficiency?

]]>
By: Guy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37574 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 16:36:07 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37574 "For players with no major contextual changes, assists and offensive rebounds are relatively stable; foul-drawing and turnover avoidance are less consistent; and scoring efficiency is the least consistent of all."

This may be true, but the lower correlation for scoring may just reflect the much lower variance in the statistic. If you measured the average absolute y-t-y change in each stat, measured in point value, is it really true that scoring efficiency changes more? It could be that scoring is just as stable, but because players cluster so closely together the correlation is lower.

]]>
By: AHL http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37570 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 15:42:08 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37570 I'd like to see DREB% in here, since the common thought is that rebounding is the easiest skill to translate from college to the NBA or whatever, but by guessing I'd assume the rate is similar and slightly lower than OREB%'s correlation.

]]>
By: Anon http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472&cpage=1#comment-37568 Thu, 23 Dec 2010 14:48:57 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8472#comment-37568 Great info.

Aren't skill curves based on the assumption that your team/coach is "maximizing" your skill set within the offense? It would make sense that changing teams causes the model to break down in this regard since the player and the team are still making adjustments to make it all work.

]]>