Comments on: Percentage of Team Shot Attempts “Created” While On the Floor

By: Jon L.

Jon L. — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 21:55:02 +0000

Obviously Carmelo's attempts will decrease now as he is moving to the Knicks. He will actually have to share the ball with Amare.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 21:35:22 +0000

#20 - If I'm a coach, though, I'm encouraging my players (my role players, at the very least) to focus on that stat. Most stats become troublesome if the players are too self-aware, because they start to play to the stat at the expense of team performance. But when the stat is team performance, you want them to obsess over it as much as possible.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 19:50:26 +0000

3334 was the number of FGA we estimate the Lakers taking while Kobe is on the floor. They took 4747 shots, he was on the floor for 70.2% of their minutes, so .702*4747 ~ 3334. Same with free throws -- 1426 attempts total, 70% of the available minutes, an estimated 1002 FTA while he was on the court.

179 assisted FTA is a little more complicated. I estimated that Kobe had potential assists on 595 of the Lakers' 3334 FGA when in the game. I assume this relationship also applies to potential assists on FTA. To make FTA and FGA equivalent I multiply FTA by 0.44 (so each is denominated in possessions). 1002*0.44 = 441. Using the relationship I found for FGA, I multiply (595/3334) * 441 to get roughly 79 free throw possessions being potentially assisted by Bryant. Then to get that back into FTA, I divide by 0.44, giving Kobe 179 potentially assisted FTA.

By: ATL

ATL — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 19:29:14 +0000

Question:

In your explanation of how you got to your %Team, you used Kobe as an example. Where did you get the numbers 3334 and 1002 from? And how did you get to 179? Not sure if it is just me, but I am a little unclear on how you finally got to your %Team.

Thanks.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 16:12:02 +0000

23 - DITTO!

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 14:41:51 +0000

#22 - You're actually talking about what are called "skill curves":

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8522

http://www.basketballgeek.com/2009/02/17/basketball-on-papers-skill-curves/

http://www.48minutesofhell.com/spurs-stats-skill-curves-matt-bonner-usage-efficienc

It's sort of a fundamental debate in statgeekery:

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=1070

By: sudoku

sudoku — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 09:22:07 +0000

Kobe for MVP!

By: Alex Sonty

Alex Sonty — Thu, 24 Feb 2011 04:23:20 +0000

#13 - Great work. I added you to my Google Reader.

By: petey

petey — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 23:01:58 +0000

Interesting that LeBron & Kobe are the only non PGs in the top ten. Or maybe just expected. Thinking about them brings to mind something one hears frequently from commentators - the idea that their mere presence on the floor draws so much of the defense's attention that teammates get better shots/succeeed at a higher rate than when they are off the floor. I'm thinking of say, how does the threat of Kobe on the perimeter receiving a pass from Pau in the high post create more space for a diving Odom to catch a quick flip from Pau and finish at the rim? How about LeBron drawing so much attention cutting and moving that Bosh or Miller sees more daylight than normal and buries a jumper? It seems to be a really common observation (He makes the game so much easier teammates etc) and definitely part of the whole "observed performance" idea - is there a way to quantify it and factor it into this type of stat? It could be as crude as a measure of teammates' shooting % with and without said star on the floor being some sort of multiplier. (I.e. if LeBron's teammates shoot 10% better with him on the floor than without, multiply the shot creation percentage listed here by 1.10) If they shoot worse, wouldn't that also be a good indicator of whether or not a supposed "ball-hog" like Kobe causes his teammates to just stand-around watching him pick up stats (both points and assists) or if his overall impact on the floor offensively really does lead to more & better shots for his team.

By: ElGee

ElGee — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 22:47:57 +0000

@Neil - thanks. Feeling is certainly mutual. I like what you've done here attempting to estimate "shots created" in this manner, but I think the same problems with relying on assists for creation creep in to play here as well (eg Rondo). That said, I'd be interested in the data for past seasons. What does it look like in the 80s? What does 87 Magic look like? Jordan? Etc. I also wonder if it could be improved by incorporating percentage of FG's assisted on (82games has it).