Not to mention, that "stud" is usually averaging 8.3 fouls per 36! :p
]]>Like Neil said, it was by my request that this post be generated. Clearly nothing was trying to be proven here. It was simply an exercise in uncovering the tremendous exceptions to the norm. I was interested in seeing the EXTREMES, the OUTLIERS.
Neil's "sub-group of 'PERs that stayed the same" seems to help illustrate that there are far more players whose PERs stay the same, and there are few players whose PERs are radically impacted by a change in minutes. ...So it's pretty appropriate for this to be termed "trivia," like Neil said.
I guess this is really just a stepping stone for a larger conversation, which seems to have broken out.
I, too, am interested in isolating age and team change as factors, but I wonder if that makes the window for this search too narrow for results to be of any particular interest. And at what point have you established too many arbitrary conditions for a search?
If you establish a minimum age, you do so because you assume players are still seriously developing their skills up to that point. However you'd also have to establish a maximum age because you assume that at a certain point a players skills begin to seriously decline, right? Is there another way to "isolate age" like #15 ElGee said?
]]>Likewise, injuries -- Ford (spine, 2007-08), McDyess (shoulder, 2007), Bynum (hamstring,2010) -- or inflation (Mohammed, logged a 20.3 PER starting the last 28 games in a 25-win/2001 season for ATL after the trade from PHI where he was a more typical 15.3)...
]]>For almost all players yearly deviation is far more than career deviation. At least a three year sample is best for predictive capability I think.
Take the Moore example. He's at 9.5/8.0 in 2007, 13.4/7.0 in 2008. The next season when he plays the most minutes of his career and starts 79 games he's at 10.5/7.5. For just those three seasons he's at 11.1/7.3. And the year prior to these three, with the Clippers he was at 12.1/7.5.
Meanwhile, his career numbers are 11.5/7.7. 2007 was a down year, 2008 was an up year, 2009 was closer to norm.
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