Comments on: Mailbag: The Redd-Randolph All-Stars

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 07:42:40 +0000

I find per 36 min stats especially useful for comparing a player's production over a number of seasons. Tim Duncan is a scary example. It's also useful when talking to someone who's obsessed with raw stats. Extrapolating from someone playing say 20 MPG to per 36 MPG is pretty reasonable.

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 14:03:03 +0000

Not to mention, that "stud" is usually averaging 8.3 fouls per 36! :p

By: Jonathan

Jonathan — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 14:01:48 +0000

Per-36 numbers ***MAY*** be accurate when you are talking about regular rotation players (6th/7th/8th men) moving into a larger role. BUT, I hear far too many people talk about their 11th-man "stud in the making" who's averaging 14/13/1/1/3 (per 36, of course!), when those minutes come almost exclusively against opposing teams' 2nd- and 3rd-string.

By: Dan

Dan — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 04:18:53 +0000

What's interesting with Randolph is how the bulk of his stats are PTS and REB, but nothing else. I wonder who has the highest PER contribution from just PTS and REB...?

By: Rob P.

Rob P. — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 04:02:21 +0000

Thanks so much for replying, Neil! I can't believe how thorough your search was. Like Neil said, it was by my request that this post be generated. Clearly nothing was trying to be proven here. It was simply an exercise in uncovering the tremendous exceptions to the norm. I was interested in seeing the EXTREMES, the OUTLIERS. Neil's "sub-group of 'PERs that stayed the same" seems to help illustrate that there are far more players whose PERs stay the same, and there are few players whose PERs are radically impacted by a change in minutes. ...So it's pretty appropriate for this to be termed "trivia," like Neil said. I guess this is really just a stepping stone for a larger conversation, which seems to have broken out. I, too, am interested in isolating age and team change as factors, but I wonder if that makes the window for this search too narrow for results to be of any particular interest. And at what point have you established too many arbitrary conditions for a search? If you establish a minimum age, you do so because you assume players are still seriously developing their skills up to that point. However you'd also have to establish a maximum age because you assume that at a certain point a players skills begin to seriously decline, right? Is there another way to "isolate age" like #15 ElGee said?

By: Joseph

Joseph — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 03:30:30 +0000

You guys do excellent work on this site. We're very fortunate to have you.

By: taheati

taheati — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 14:51:34 +0000

Note that all of the 5 players whose PERs most "stayed the same" played for the same team both seasons, while 6 of the 10 players at the extremes played season #2 in a different uniform than season #1. Further anecdotal evidence that a player's rate stats can go haywire when he changes teams. Likewise, injuries -- Ford (spine, 2007-08), McDyess (shoulder, 2007), Bynum (hamstring,2010) -- or inflation (Mohammed, logged a 20.3 PER starting the last 28 games in a 25-win/2001 season for ATL after the trade from PHI where he was a more typical 15.3)...

By: MikeN

MikeN — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 01:24:56 +0000

Patently untrue that per minute stats wont translate to higher numbers?
I was thinking the conventional wisdom is right. Isn't that the whole point of guys like Iverson and Anthony, is that even though they take a lot of shots to get their points, other players won't produce at that level for that number of shots?

By: benji

benji — Tue, 12 Apr 2011 00:46:57 +0000

Comparing single years to another single year is not necessarily how I would have done this. Players who play way above or way below their norms one year doesn't really inform the per-minute situation.

For almost all players yearly deviation is far more than career deviation. At least a three year sample is best for predictive capability I think.

Take the Moore example. He's at 9.5/8.0 in 2007, 13.4/7.0 in 2008. The next season when he plays the most minutes of his career and starts 79 games he's at 10.5/7.5. For just those three seasons he's at 11.1/7.3. And the year prior to these three, with the Clippers he was at 12.1/7.5.

Meanwhile, his career numbers are 11.5/7.7. 2007 was a down year, 2008 was an up year, 2009 was closer to norm.

By: BSK

BSK — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 23:50:43 +0000

I still haven't seen any attention paid to quality of opposition. If a backup plays largely against other backups and then is thrust into playing against starters, I can't help but assume this will have an impact.