Comments on: Time to Face Facts — Miami is Unlikely to Be a True .500 Team in Close Games

By: Sean

Sean — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 20:36:17 +0000

I think regardless of how one operationally defines a 'close game'-----I remain unimpressed with the Heat's sets when they need a basket late. These sets are deployed by many teams late in games when one's possessions are coming to an end. The LeBron has the ball at the top/ everyone clear out with apparently ZERO attention paid to spacing/ LeBron drives the lane against multiple bigs thingy just isn't working out that great. They could do better. They MUST do better---or LeBron could simply get really good at making those kinds of shots. The status quo cannot be what they were hoping for.

By: Mike Goodman

Mike Goodman — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 12:56:36 +0000

"They're 10-2 in games decided by 6 to 8 points. That puts them at 15-15 in games decided by 8 or less." ""I personally think "Games with a margin of 5 points or less entering the final minute of the game" makes more sense than the final score." I'd probably go with with 5 at any point in the last two minutes of the game, personally. The final score is a pretty horrible metric for deciding "closeness" of a game." Good points all. A close game in which the Heat put away the opponent in the final minute, winning by more than 5, is removed from consideration.

By: Sean

Sean — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 01:57:39 +0000

Neil sez: All of my readers are important.>>>>>>>>>>>> I have to agree. I can only imagine how badly Neil winces at some of the things I say here---------> yet he is fast to respond when I address him directly. I give Neil a lot of credit for the job he does.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:23:03 +0000

And for the record, if you asked me now who played better in the 2010 playoffs vs. Boston, I'd follow this post and say they essentially played at the same level:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6618

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:19:36 +0000

All of my readers are important.

With that example, I was trying to weigh all of the evidence at hand. I admit that I don't take individual DRtg as seriously now (compared to DSPM) as I did then, but it was a piece of evidence to use at the time. Just like calculating that it was statistically unlikely for a true .500 team to go 5-for-18 in a given set of games. This has nothing to do with bias against LeBron James, but everything to do with reliance on the numbers (for better or for worse).

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:11:00 +0000

Damn Neil you sure responded to that fast, I didn't know I was that important.

You said it so smugly, like you just knew LeBron had no chance to be better on defense. Wrong, he locked your guy up and he was trash. Even Dean Oliver needs to take into account mitigating circumstances. The individual PER in this case was so obviously skewed in LeBron's favor.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 04:05:23 +0000

Wow, that's what you've been talking about this whole time? You're bent out of shape because the Dean Oliver stats gave Kobe an edge on defense? Get a grip.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 03:54:54 +0000

*I know you are objective

#86 I always thought he was a good analyst, but he is indeed a media parrot right now.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 03:51:18 +0000

I would have produced the link sooner, but I was busy. :]

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sat, 12 Mar 2011 03:50:01 +0000

#87

Um ok buddy, no problem.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6605

This is the thread where you ignorantly use defensive rating, instead of individual defense. You had no clue at the time what occurred in the Cavs-Celtics series, and the way the Cavs play defense now validates me further. LeBron's teammates were atrocious on defense but Pierce got locked up.

Neil honestly, you're a media hack now. You got caught up in the "closer" nonsense and you use this cherry picked sample size to make your vague point. I know your objective, most of the time. You are also human and you better hope the Heat keep losing these "close" games.