Comments on: BBR Rankings: Final Regular-Season Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings

By: Kelly

Kelly — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 20:54:51 +0000

Dsong. Based on what, other than general sweeping statements about "regular season performance being a poor indicator" do you have to back up your statement. The fact that 15 of the last 31 champs have had the best regular season record and 22 of 31 have been #1 seeds in their conference would lead me to believe that regular season records are a tad better than "poor."

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 19:26:05 +0000

#21 Matt, he doesn't cross match like Wade does. Let him cover Kobe over an entire game... Right of course you didn't suggest that but that is my larger point. Paul is a nice defender, Wade is better.

By: AHL

AHL — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:37:03 +0000

Oh, also it depends which site you use, some have Miami as favorites some have Miami 3rd behind Chicago, some have equal odds for the Lakers and Bulls.

By: AHL

AHL — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 14:33:19 +0000

Neil, I'm sadly going to give #26 the benefit of the doubt, and assume he meant the moneyline odds to win the championship on day 1 of the playoffs when he says "third most likely". Today, it's: Lakers +250 Heat +325 Bulls +350 But Vegas isn't only in the game to be the most accurate. They are in the game of winning the most money. If the public is stupid about betting, they will adjust the lines even if the Bulls are the favorites. This is probably what's happening with the Lakers and Heat this year. "Oh, another three-peat hurf durf" and "Miami LeBron we already won hurf durf". The key shouldn't be relying on what Vegas gives, it should be coming up with an independent method to beat it. After all, they set their lines starting from somehere.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 13:32:31 +0000

#26 - Never mind the fact that I still haven't seen any evidence for these claims you continually make... If true, wouldn't that make Chicago the favorites to win it all?

Biggest point spreads of opening games:

Indiana at Chicago (CHI -11½)
Philadelphia at Miami (MIA -10½)
New Orleans at L.A. Lakers (LAL -10)
Atlanta at Orlando (ORL -8)
New York at Boston (BOS -6½)
Memphis at San Antonio (SAS -6)
Portland at Dallas (DAL -5)
Denver at Oklahoma City (OKL -5)

By: Sean

Sean — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 12:42:14 +0000

Orien Greene is a monster!! >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> And SOYLENT GREEN is people!

By: slimline

slimline — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 07:34:20 +0000

Heat 16-0.The King for Finals MVP.

By: dsong

dsong — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 07:26:28 +0000

I've done a bit of research from a gambling perspective and found that regular season performance is a poor predictor of potential playoff success. THE best indicator I've found is the opening point spread in the first playoff game.

The Bulls pose a particularly big problem in predicting playoff success. They were clearly the best team in the regular season; they had the best record and the best point differential. Yet they are, at best, the third most likely team to win the championship. Even with home court advantage, they will likely go off as underdogs in the conference finals and are only 60-40 to get that far in the first place.

To put it simply, the postseason is an entirely different animal from the regular season and must be analyzed very differently.

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 05:41:13 +0000

Neil,

Isn't HCA significantly greater in the playoffs? I did some research at one point and discovered it was ~66-67% (controlling for quality of opponent).

By: AYC

AYC — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 04:05:15 +0000

Trick-or-Treat Tony does very well under SPM; is he the one the Celts are really missing?