Comments on: Layups: Clutch Players and Wall Street Bankers

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 16:02:10 +0000

A good rough estimate of the value of a player's contributions in crunch time is:

((TS%*2*(1-1.357*TO%))-.878)*USG%*90.131

That accounts for scoring rate and quantity. Incidentally, going off of the 82games.com clutch data ( http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM ), Lebron has been the best. When adding in assists also (the equation for that is a bit iffy--I'm working on adding in credit for assists and subtractions for being assisted), James is still the best, but Nash is close.

Top 10 scoring only:
Team Player Scoring
CLE James 12.10
POR Webster 8.55
DAL Dampier 7.75
DET Hamilton 7.68
DAL Nowitzki 7.58
PHO Nash 7.14
HOU Landry 6.80
LAL Bryant 6.60
CHA Murray 6.40
PHI Williams 6.30
(the numbers are in pts added/48 minutes)

And including assists:
Team Player Total
CLE James 13.37
PHO Nash 11.81
NOH Paul 8.76
DEN Billups 6.72
LAL Bryant 6.50
POR Webster 6.15
DAL Nowitzki 5.98
POR Roy 5.47
DET Hamilton 5.43
DAL Dampier 5.38

I'm still working on a comprehensive way to included assists in the equation listed above.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 14:19:11 +0000

My feeling (i.e. unsubstantiated in anyway) has been that clutch players maintain their level of play in crunch-time, whereas everyone else wilts slightly under the pressure. It would be interesting to see % of decline in eff during minutes 44-48 of games where scoring diff <5 points.

What are the things players deal with in the crunch?

Clock management
Stress/Pressure/Excitement
Less officiating, more contact
Intensified crowd noise
Rhythm interrupted by frequent time outs

By: el_horse

el_horse — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 07:32:44 +0000

I think you should look at percentages rather than total points. How many of the team's shots 'clutch' players shot/made and how many (relative to the whole team) points they scored Pure scoring doesn't tell us anythhing as you said above

By: Federico

Federico — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 04:07:35 +0000

I pretty much agree with Jason J. While most players will shoot the ball when they have a good look, waiting for that moment to come, clutch players know its crucial to score in that possession, so they feel they have to manage a good shot. I can't remember where I read that Kobe shoots a certain percentage in all of his shots. It doesn't matter if it's a wide open mid-range jumper or a contested deep three pointer. Of course there's a difference, but you know what I mean.

By: Myles

Myles — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:30:03 +0000

What about the possibility that every players' performance suffers in clutch situations? If a player performs still performs better relative to his teammates in this case, I would still call him clutch.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 20:47:34 +0000

Neil, that report might not point to the players actually raising their games in the clutch, but it does show a willingness to take shots in clutch situations. I wonder if that isn't the key factor to being considered clutch by the masses, taking enough that we remember the makes.