Comments on: The Real Field of 64? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783&cpage=1#comment-15257 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 14:12:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783#comment-15257 Brank: It is possible to adjust point differential according to the opposition; this is what the SRS does (and KenPom.com does, also adjusting for pace using tempo-free efficiencies). Otherwise, no, point differential is nearly meaningless in the NCAA environment.

]]> By: Brank_Manderbeak http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783&cpage=1#comment-15255 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 14:02:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783#comment-15255 Neil, does the predictive power of point differential carry over to the college game? I know it works well enough in the NBA because each team plays each other at least twice, but with all the wonky scheduling of college seasons, I imagine it would reflect, to a greater degree, the team's schedule rather than the team's talent (and there seems to be less parity in college ball too, but that's just my impression).

]]> By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783&cpage=1#comment-15252 Wed, 17 Mar 2010 13:18:17 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783#comment-15252 Here, I think, is the most equitable: my own version of the RPI.

The concept: have a fixed value for wins and losses, and add that to the adjusted efficiency differential of opponents (calculated by Ken Pomeroy).

This is like your "BBR" system, only a little more refined.

To get the fixed value of the wins and losses, I ran a regression over the last 6 years to best approximate the Ken Pomeroy Adjusted Efficiency Margin for the whole NCAA: the result was that a win was worth 25.45 points of margin (so any undefeated team gets +25.45 to add to their opponent average efficiency differential). How does that play out?

1. Kansas (32-2) Win Margin: (32*25.45-2*29.45)/34 = 22.46 Average Opponent Adjusted Efficiency Margin: 10.2 OVERALL RATING: 32.66
2. Duke (29-5) Win Margin: 17.96 Opp Mar: 12.2 OVERALL RATING: 30.16
3. Kentucky (32-2) Win Mar: 22.46 Opp Mar: 7.6 OVERALL RATING: 30.06
4. West Virginia (27-6) Win Mar: 16.20 Opp Mar: 13.4 OVERALL RATING: 29.60
5. Syracuse (28-4) Win Mar: 19.09 Opp Mar: 9.4 OVERALL RATING: 28.49
6. Kansas St. (26-7) Win Mar: 14.65 Opp Mar: 12.8 OVERALL RATING: 27.45
7. Purdue 27.30
8. Villanova 25.26
9. Temple 25.16
10. Baylor 24.32
11. Butler 24.09
12. New Mexico 24.08
13. Georgetown 23.63
14. Ohio St. 23.57
15. Texas A&M 22.63
16. Wisconsin 22.61
17. Northern Iowa 22.49
18. Vanderbilt 22.43
19. Pittsburgh 22.43
20. Maryland 22.41
21. Michigan St. 22.33
22. Tennessee 22.11
23. Brigham Young 21.56
24. Texas 21.17
25. Florida St. 20.87
26. California 20.33
27. Xavier 20.33
28. Richmond 19.47
29. Washington 19.47
30. San Diego St. 19.41
31. Clemson 19.33
32. Virginia Tech 19.31
33. Gonzaga 19.31
34. Georgia Tech 19.19
35. Wake Forest 19.00
36. St. Mary's 18.74
37. Texas El Paso 18.51
38. Nevada Las Vegas 18.31
39. Oklahoma St. 18.14
40. Marquette 17.88
41. Missouri 17.14
42. Old Dominion 16.97
43. UAB 16.91
44. Rhode Island 16.83
45. Siena 16.70
46. Cornell 16.68
47. Louisville 16.46
48. Notre Dame 16.38
49. Utah St. 16.37
50. South Florida 16.36
51. Arizona St. 16.24
52. Mississippi 15.93
53. Mississippi St. 15.78
54. Minnesota 15.59
55. Illinois 15.16
56. William & Mary 14.74
57. Marshall 14.53
58. Florida 14.44
59. Wichita St. 14.38
60. Connecticut 14.09
61. Seton Hall 14.05
62. Memphis 13.63
63. Murray St. 13.46
64. Kent St. 13.33

This allows for the concept of simply rewarding what a team has done, since the objective is winning the game, not running up the score. It also provides a true opposition assessment.

What do you all think? I think Florida did not deserve to be an at-large, and Notre Dame and Marquette are massively over-seeded. And Virginia Tech, who I have as an 8 seed, should have beat out Florida (who I have as a 15 seed).

]]> By: iamse7en http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783&cpage=1#comment-15236 Tue, 16 Mar 2010 20:07:19 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=4783#comment-15236 I like the one that ranks my team as a 2 seed, not as an 8 seed.

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