Why actually simulate the games? Can't you just figure out what would happen in an infinite number of simulations through simple multiplication and addition of the different probabilities of making a round/facing a team/beating that team? Is it because simulation lets you look at individual matchups more easily?

Arizona State is probably the better team to get into the Elite 8, but since they have a harder row to hoe, they are a worse bet to make it (IMO) to that round. I have to say that I think the way yours provides the score is pretty sweet.