Comments on: Playoff RAPM Power Rankings

By: Jerry

Jerry — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 21:44:45 +0000

Mike:
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/research-papers/2010-2/past-years/improved-nba-adjusted-using-regularization-and-out-of-sample-testing/

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 19:13:07 +0000

How does RAPM work? I'm curious about it; if it works how it was meant to work that would make it the go-to stat for measuring player value.

By: Crow

Crow — Sat, 23 Apr 2011 15:50:46 +0000

And, by your numbers, Chicago.

By: Nathan Walker

Nathan Walker — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:27:29 +0000

Or preview what my code looks like...yuck. My bad.

Useful data above:
The only team with >50% of going to the Semis is Miami.

By: Nathan Walker

Nathan Walker — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:24:12 +0000

Ehhh that's ugly. Why can't I delete my comments?

rating quarters semis finals champ champ rank if quarters? if semis if finals 1W SAN 9.67 0.655587031 0.4363 0.2696 0.1581 2 0.241157913 0.362365345 0.586424332 8W MEM 6.21 0.344412969 0.1468 0.0581 0.0202 9 0.058650521 0.13760218 0.34767642 4W OKC 7.81 0.788457489 0.3301 0.1723 0.0828 6 0.105015174 0.250833081 0.480557168 5W DEN 7.85 0.211542511 0.0868 0.0444 0.0201 10 0.095016363 0.23156682 0.452702703 3W DAL 7.95 0.796053256 0.4237 0.1902 0.0816 7 0.102505705 0.192589096 0.429022082 6W POR 7.81 0.203946744 0.1085 0.0451 0.0186 11 0.091200279 0.171428571 0.412416851 2W LAL 9.03 0.808013755 0.4378 0.2158 0.11 3 0.136136296 0.251256281 0.509731233 7W NOR 2.38 0.191986245 0.03 0.0045 0.0009 12 0.004687836 0.03 0.2 1E CHI 7.56 0.966930273 0.5222 0.1938 0.0782 8 0.080874498 0.149751053 0.403508772 8E IND 0.59 0.033069727 0.0057 0.0004 0 16 0 0 0 4E ORL 8.56 0.79666838 0.4381 0.1915 0.0842 5 0.105690149 0.192193563 0.439686684 5E ATL 2.19 0.20333162 0.034 0.0052 0.0005 14 0.002459037 0.014705882 0.096153846 3E bos 9.06 0.949857377 0.4069 0.2155 0.1056 4 0.111174585 0.259523224 0.490023202 6E NYK 3.41 0.050142623 0.0066 0.0019 0.0003 15 0.005982934 0.045454545 0.157894737 2E MIA 10.84 0.961516536 0.5782 0.39 0.2381 1 0.247629647 0.411795227 0.610512821 7E PHI 4.34 0.038483464 0.0083 0.0017 0.0008 13 0.020788149 0.096385542 0.470588235

By: Nathan Walker

Nathan Walker — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:22:12 +0000

I used Daniel (Dsmok1's) numbers here to simulate the playoffs:

rating quarters semis finals champ champ rank
1W SAN 9.67 0.655587031 0.4363 0.2696 0.1581 2
8W MEM 6.21 0.344412969 0.1468 0.0581 0.0202 9
4W OKC 7.81 0.788457489 0.3301 0.1723 0.0828 6
5W DEN 7.85 0.211542511 0.0868 0.0444 0.0201 10
3W DAL 7.95 0.796053256 0.4237 0.1902 0.0816 7
6W POR 7.81 0.203946744 0.1085 0.0451 0.0186 11
2W LAL 9.03 0.808013755 0.4378 0.2158 0.11 3
7W NOR 2.38 0.191986245 0.03 0.0045 0.0009 12
1E CHI 7.56 0.966930273 0.5222 0.1938 0.0782 8
8E IND 0.59 0.033069727 0.0057 0.0004 0 16
4E ORL 8.56 0.79666838 0.4381 0.1915 0.0842 5
5E ATL 2.19 0.20333162 0.034 0.0052 0.0005 14
3E bos 9.06 0.949857377 0.4069 0.2155 0.1056 4
6E NYK 3.41 0.050142623 0.0066 0.0019 0.0003 15
2E MIA 10.84 0.961516536 0.5782 0.39 0.2381 1
7E PHI 4.34 0.038483464 0.0083 0.0017 0.0008 13

By: EvanZ

EvanZ — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:10:55 +0000

Oh, now I realized he posted here too. Anyway...

By: EvanZ

EvanZ — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:10:20 +0000

BTW, Jeremias Engelmann communicated to me recently that he calculated y-t-y correlation for 1-yr RAPM. You can see the exchange here on one of my recent posts:

http://thecity2.com/2011/04/15/the-city-2011-mip/#comment-1028

It looks like R^2 for 1-yr RAPM is roughly 0.25.

I'll also post the retrodiction results for ezpm once each series is finished. See how it stacks up against these other metrics.

By: Nathan Walker

Nathan Walker — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:58:41 +0000

Nevermind, I see that Neil addressed this in the post.

By: Nathan Walker

Nathan Walker — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 16:54:58 +0000

One of the limitations of RAPM is its obvious lack of describing diminishing returns (or accurately measuring how a player performs when traded, etc). The Miami Heat's 4-year predicted efficiency differential is extremely biased, because it assumes Lebron/Bosh/Wade's usages on their prior teams. The big three's usage% has decreased significantly (as everyone projected)- and I bet if someone measured defensive usage, it would be the same. Basically, if we were playing "make it, take it" rather than actual basketball, the Heat's numbers would stand up :)