Comments on: Layups: Have Mavericks found a recipe to defend LeBron? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=2#comment-51152 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 21:18:54 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51152 #54

I'll concur with you there, but over a career one gets a good idea with defensive rating.

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By: Heretic http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=2#comment-51123 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 17:33:13 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51123 #52

What I had in mind is that DWS rewards average and bad defenders on good defensive teams and punishes good defenders on scrub defensive teams.
A perfect example would be Antawn Jamison in 2010, whose DRtg improved to 102 when he went from Washington to Cleveland during the season. Previously his DRtg was 109.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamisan01/gamelog/2010/

So it would be good if team performance would also be taken into account, then it would be a perfect metric.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=2#comment-51105 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 03:15:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51105 #48

Neil Paine proved APM is minute based, multiplied it by minutes, and calls it "APMVAL". End of discussion.... Go to the Christmas Eve 2010 blog post and get acquainted with the stat.

Dude you messed up, the sloan sports paper is about APM team ratings for March/April</strong, and that's why it has a 1200 minute cutoff. Because there are only 12.5 games per month, multiplied by two you get 1200 minutes total. APM is always MINUTE based. I'm ahead of you, I know more about this stat and I've been here very long.

"logic conclusion"?

LeBron fans don't grasp logic conclusions, we grasp logical conclusions actually. And I was a Laker fan in 2009 so whatever.

Here's the problem using APM:

1. Yeah like I said, you have to prove Chris Bosh is the best player on the Miami Heat. You're not going to be able to do that there's this thing called NOISE in APM. It's why it has goofy rankings. The fact that you're even trying shows your total bias for Dirk. And lack of any SUPPORTING (go to LeBron's page on this website) evidence. No one thinks Chris Bosh is better, none of the important stats think he is either.

2. Wow it looks like you confused yourself. The APM stats from THIS season say Dirk is inferior to KG defensively. Lol it is on your website source! Dirk hides on defense, the PPP adjusted for opponent won't support him.

3. No I said over Dirk's career he is a failure defensively. Read #28 again since you have a reading comprehension problem. And the FIVE year analysis supports his incompetence defensively. The five year analysis is one of the metrics you should be using.

4. "What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

"Best Christmas day performances", a great post Neil made about APM multiplied by time. Not that it even matters since LeBron is the best player since Jordan.

5. Hmmmmmm..... Didn't look like Dirk did too well in 2007 or 2003. Looks like he's wasn't too durable in important seasons, and he's a finesse player in his prime.

This thread is not about fatigue, I don't even care WHY he didn't perform. He's proven you wrong already. I'm more interested in the future and he'll be fine once he gets Dirk rest.

Playing style does matter LeBron is a bigger Wade that gets more free throws, and Kobe doesn't play well with 44 MPG either. Jason Kidd is a role player who defends Wade not LeBron either. Again you don't know history.

6. The bread and butter at basketball-reference is Win Shares, offensive SPM for offense, and APM for Defense. All in favor in James. Heck APMVAL is in favor of james too. Not that it matters.

His peak season is greater than any of Jordan's seasons, and he's 26 years old. He's never lost in the first round, especially not to bad teams like Dirk, and the rest of his career is brighter than any player since Jordan.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=2#comment-51100 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 02:01:22 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51100 #49

Yeah the same defensive rating in different seasons/eras, is not equal. They were right to adjust for league average that isn't the problem.

The formula is wrong because in this SPECIFIC case, MJ's team got better defensively without him. Shaq is understated in comparison.

DWS over-rewards steals and blocks, Shaq was the better defender.

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=2#comment-51098 Mon, 20 Jun 2011 01:55:31 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51098 Adjusted plus minus definition from NBAstuffer:

"What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

CB you can get as upset as you want, I applied the APM stat the way it is defined, your bad. LeBron still wins. You were incorrect to criticize anything I stated.

And I'm a Colts fan I know what a Mavericks-like franchise is like. I don't like the way the Colts are Old now with only one title, that was not the goal. The Mavs squandered their chances they should have been the Spurs.

And neither franchise was validated to me so the arrogance is misplaced. LeBron has something more valuable that Dirk can only dream about and that's time.

"dude, stop the fatigue argument. Lebron lost to a 38 years old fart and was shut down by him. 5 minutes more or lass my ass. this guy is in his prime and he cant even finish against a guy who could be your grandpa."

I'm pretty sure Shawn Marion was on LeBron for most of the series. Maybe you should watch it sometime? Yeah your bad.

I don't CARE if LeBron failed in this series, have you ever watched Dirk in 2007 or LeBron in 2009? There really is no equal when it comes to performing positively (LeBron), and underperforming (Dirk). I wanted LA to win the 2009 title too.

Sure looked like Wade got fatigued playing fewer minutes and doing much less too.

"lol, comming to this thread several days later and Huevo killer is still licking Lebrons balls ^^"

Blah blah blah, I was a Kobe fan so deal with it. I think LeBron haters lack objective evidence when they get upset and this is exactly why.

Huevon is very different from huevo I can tell you're also ignorant of the Spanish language.

"about the KG-vs-Dirk thin.
lets face it, Kevin isn't the defender he was back then and Dirk is holding his own on a similar level, athough he can be hidden behind the opponents worst frontcourt player with Chandler on the court (but keepin mind that Tyson only played 25-something in the regular season, the rest of the way Dirk had to defend the Duncans, Griffins, Boshs, Gasols,Odoms, Aldridgs etc of the world)"

I was talking about a FIVE year analysis, it has little to do with age. Again, your bad. Yes they hide Dirk on people that's why a five year analysis exposes him.

"btw. I'm laughing hard right now @ Hueveo
you really don't know mutch about on/offcourt +/- stats don't you ?-)
Nowitzki is a hero in that stat for years now. no wonder he is ahead of Garnett.

stop complaining, you've got beaten by the other guys facts"

I got you good here, I'll post it again:
"What Adjusted Plus-Minus does:
It reflects the impact of each player on his team's bottom line ... during each minute he's on the court."

Finally, is Chris Bosh the best player on the Heat or not? APM is noisy too, get informed.

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By: Heretic http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=1#comment-51038 Fri, 17 Jun 2011 22:42:16 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51038 #42

Here, btw, is the comparison:

http://tinyurl.com/69x39md

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By: Heretic http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=1#comment-51037 Fri, 17 Jun 2011 22:35:48 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51037 #42

Sadly, I do not think this is the case. If you look at the way DWS are calculated, league points per possession are very important. And LPPP = average league DRtg/100 (if I didn't screw up anything).

So, for example, Shaq in 2000 and Jordan in 1992 have the same playoff DRtg (104). Shaq played more minutes (1000 vs. 920). Yet Jordan has more DWS (I think 1.7 vs. 1.1).

The reason? LPPP in 1992 was 1,114, while in 2000 it was only 1,042. So Jordan benefits from the fact that his DRtg is much better than the average DRtg (104 compared to 111,4). Shaq's DRtg, in turn, is about the same as the league average (104).

I love WS (much better than PER IMO) but I think that team DRtg should be considered also when attributing DWS. For example, Jordan's DRtg in 1992 playoffs was only slightly higher than his teams average (105,3 I think), while Shaq's Lakers were a poor defensive team in 2000 (107,5 DRtg). According to team impact Shaq was better.

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By: Persef http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=1#comment-51009 Fri, 17 Jun 2011 10:36:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51009 your ignorance doesn't serve you well either

now we reached the point where reading comprehension is important
It seems you mixed up links of the current season with links from a 5 year datapack. Can't blame you, Lebron fans in generally lack the mentality to grasp those logic conclusions.

1st: the stats I've posted about Dirks defense are from THIS season and not the 2nd link you used in which the defensive impact from KG and Dirk form the 2005.
KG from the mid 2000s was one of the best, if not the best PF defender in the history of the game - you must be pretty stupid to think anyone could claim otherwise.

your premiss on the whole is flawed - you said Dirk is not a good defensive player, yet he posted similar or better defensive impact numbers than Garnett this season.
if Dirk is not a good defensive player - what is Garnett then?
in the PPP link I posted you can clearly see that Dirk+Garnett are producing on the same defensive level. helding their opponents at the same PPP - both in elite category (side note for you: THIS SEASON). if we consider on/of court of the current season, Dirk is far ahead of KG:
http://basketballvalue.com/topplayers.php?&year=2010-2011
(outscored off the court by)
Dirk off the court: -5.8
KG off the court: -3.3

thats the defensive impact Dirk has.

you are proven wrong - again

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2nd: +/- on court stats are not minute based, at least not how you interpreted them.
It's sad somehow, we are on a statgeek site with 99% of the users being educated in terms of knowledge about math/statistics - and now you appear and accuse others of having no clue
you can learn those things while reading that paper: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/joeSillSloanSportsPaperWithLogo.pdf

those rankings are not per 100 minutes, in fact they are about per 100 possesions.
minutes doesn't play any significant role in those models, except determinating the cut off

nice try though, you failed again.

about Luol Deng being ahead of Kobe:
those stats are seperated between offensive and defensive impact and are merged to have a better overview.
what is wrong with you? in KGs case you ignored the overall value (in which Dirk is higher than KG in that 5 year span), but you nitpicked only the defensive impact to value KG higher. but as soon as we talk about other players you just ignore the seperation?
let me ask you this:
isn't it true that Kobe is the superior player to Luol?
- Kobe is way ahead of Deng in terms of offense
isn't it true that Deng is the superior defender to Kobe?
- Deng is ahead of Kobe

this is true for the last 5 years overall. Kobe had moments where he was the better defender, but the last 2 years alone Deng was the more skilled one in that case.

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3rd:
Kidd regular season mpg: 33mpg
Lebron regular season mpg: 38mpg

playoff totals Kidd: 744 minutes
playoff totals Lebron: 922 minutes

sorry - but if a 12 year younger Lebron can'T handle 5 more minutes per game than a 38 year old Kidd, then he isn't athe athlete you think he is. Lebron got shut down by Kidd (and Marion) and coudln't do a thing.
he was also shut down by those guys in the early regular season where Lebron had the freshest legs on the planet - and still sucked.

there is a reason why guys like Monta can play 48 minutes straight, because they are superior athletes. there is also the reason why former MVPs, best PF of the history of the game and 4 times championship winners like Duncan only play 28 minutes. because they are old.... Duncan on the other hand is only 34 years old. Kidd on the other hand is 38/39 years old AND he shut down the arguable best player in the game on the defensive end while leading the best offense in the postseason (those who win). It's funny that you mentioned Lebrons higher scoring output to put him in front of Kidd in terms of overall action and fatigue. but Kidd had more assist and more steals. he also was the defender for Kobe in round 2 and Durant in round 3. thats exhausting

yet, Lebron still was tired because the 38 years old outplayed him

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By: CB http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=1#comment-51008 Fri, 17 Jun 2011 10:35:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-51008 lol, comming to this thread several days later and Huevo killer is still licking Lebrons balls ^^

dude, stop the fatigue argument. Lebron lost to a 38 years old fart and was shut down by him. 5 minutes more or lass my ass. this guy is in his prime and he cant even finish against a guy who could be your grandpa.

about the KG-vs-Dirk thin.
lets face it, Kevin isn't the defender he was back then and Dirk is holding his own on a similar level, athough he can be hidden behind the opponents worst frontcourt player with Chandler on the court (but keepin mind that Tyson only played 25-something in the regular season, the rest of the way Dirk had to defend the Duncans, Griffins, Boshs, Gasols,Odoms, Aldridgs etc of the world)

btw. I'm laughing hard right now @ Hueveo
you really don't know mutch about on/offcourt +/- stats don't you ?-)
Nowitzki is a hero in that stat for years now. no wonder he is ahead of Garnett.

stop complaining, you've got beaten by the other guys facts

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By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718&cpage=1#comment-50989 Fri, 17 Jun 2011 03:05:00 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9718#comment-50989 Persef that's quite incorrect. You've made a series of claims.

1."Dirks 1-on-1 defense is the best in the league (tied with KG)"

~Well... No not even close. They aren't actually, 1.4 isn't close to 5.2 That's a pretty ridiculous comment actually. You even provided me with the evidence to handle this claim in your link.

2. "here the updated ranking from 2005-2011 RAPM. Dirk is of course the best player in that course in the NBA."

~ Actually even this stat proves he's not, it is a per-minute stat. And since LeBron James plays 43.6 minutes a game you're out of options. Also tell me about #9 L-u-o-l D-e-n-g, SF for the Chicago Bulls please, and how he's better than Kobe Bryant. Since you seem to be dodging that matter because you know how bad this stat is.

Steve Nash and Manu Ginobili are not better than Kobe either. Gerald Wallace over Dwyane Wade? I know you don't really want to get into this debate because these rankings look awful. Every stat on basketball-reference show the importance of James's overall impact over these players. Same thing with Kobe/Wade.

3."PS: I'm still waiting for you to adress "

~ You don't even know Jason Kidd's stats.

Jason Kidd plays 35 .4 minutes a game and averaged 9 points. That's not a very credible comparison.

Chris Bosh is the best player on the Heat according to your link btw. Your link doesn't really serve you well.

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