Which I guess leads me to the main point that I want to make here, which is that even though there have been some decent historical examples on this question, we're dealing with a whole different beast here. If the Heat decide it is in their best interest to let them both play as aggressively as they have before (which I'm almost positive it is), there will be plenty of situations where only LeBron is needed to create a scoring opportunity. You're dealing with 2 guys who can catch an outlet pass--whether it's from a made basket, rebound, or turnover--and run up the court and score on a defense if all 5 players aren't back and committed to stopping them. And that will happen...this is the NBA we're talking about.

In the half-court, they will have to pick their spots, definitely. It will require the whole team to be aware of floor spacing on a level they probably haven't been required to know before. But I don't think it means one of these guys becomes a jump shooter. Yes, they'll get more open looks and should knock down their field goals at a higher percentage, but if they want to be, they also can be even more selective with their shots because of how easy it will be for them to pick a defense apart. If the Heat ever decide to go super small, they'd have LeBron guarding the other team's 4 with Bosh at the 5, Miller at the 3, Wade at the 2, and Eddie House at the 1. Now, assuming a team doesn't want Miller and House to shoot open 3's, there is still a lot of space for LeBron, Wade, and Bosh to play a game of 3 on 3 on the other side of the court. And I think we know who's winning that game.

I know they won't run with this lineup a ton, but even so, there are ways of hiding people on offense (Joel Anthony, Mario Chalmers at times) so you end up with the people you want with the ball having room to operate in the space that they like to operate in. It will be an absolute nightmare to defend. This team is going to have to learn very quickly how to play with each other since none of them have played on an NBA team like this, but I'm guessing they'll figure it out pretty quickly...with success.

Another thing: Spoelstra has said he wants to push the pace a bit, in order to prevent opposition from loading up on one side defensively. Is that not revealing? Sounds like a coach not too confident in his team's halfcourt potential.

Also: the Heat were a superb defensive rebounding team last season, but I wonder whether that is due to sacrificing transition opportunities in exchange for a better chance of securing rebounds. Can they get LeDywane easy transition buckets without sacrificing 2nd shot opportunities?

Tangentially: the Heat had a high d-FTA/FG ratio themselves. How are they supposed to get out and run if their opponents are sinking freethrows and making them take the ball out of bounds.

Also, what kind of lineups are being used? Anthony can't space floor for Bosh, Wade, or James. Ilgauskas can space the floor, but the team sacrifices speed. Bosh and Haslem can man the pivot and space the floor, I suppose, but the team sacrifices strength.

Upon closer inspection, Anthony clogs the paint, making driving into the lane more complicated. The other centers are liabilities, matchups to exploit. How are the Heat supposed to get out in transition if guys like D. Howard are beating Ilgauskas down the floor and scoring on the break or in early offense? How are they supposed to fast break if Shaq is sealing Bosh underneath the rim, or commanding double-teams and hitting open shooters?

Preliminarily, I think the Heat are easier to defend in the halfcourt; in transition, definitely not. But getting out into transition is going to be problematic for the Heat, for sure.

I'm getting that too, in IE and Firefox... We'll have to check out what's causing that.

Thanks for the heads-up!

can anyone else not see the list of games when they click on playoff series? this is in firefox on osx and IE on windows 7

For example, the FTRI of Carmelo and AI both went up. How does this support your conclusion? They both got more aggressive.

I looked briefly at the list. In a few cases the FTRIs went up, some they fell slightly, and some cases show one player dropping. Isn't this simply what we expected? It simply shows that we don't know what will happen, but most likely it'll be scenario B or C.

The sample size is pretty small; I'm not sure there's enough statistical data to really delve deeply. I'd be interested in seeing how "successful" these pairings were in each of the cases.

What are the highest combos then? Obviously only regarding perimeter players.