However, the score is reset after every game. If you want to argue about the value of series leverage that is more reasonable.

Nowitzki DOES space the floor for his team well, but once again, to what degree? Do you simply boost his ratings that you can empirically measure because his team won the title? Where do you assign credit, and how much?

Anon, you remind me of such a specific instance where it was almost SURREAL watching a post-Finals interview.

It was 2009. Kobe Bryant was being interviewed as the Finals MVP. He was SO jovial and he may have had his MVP trophy on his lap. Her was giving proper homage to 'The Spaniard'-----so I'll cut him SOME slack... but the truth is this:

Kobe Bryant, in this interview, with his MVP trophy in tow, was about ONE HOUR removed from doing his best to FLUSH the championship down the crapper.

It did NOT go unnoticed by MANY that I talked to/ listened to that Phil Jackson, in his infinite coaching wisdom--------brilliantly--------sat Kobe Bryant's azz down at the end of the 3rd Quarter/ beginning of the 4th Quarter of a Game #7 at home (where he was in the midst of a 6 for 24... among them unconscionable shot attempts) so that the REST of the TEAM-----Gasol, Artest, D. Fish, etc.-----could get INVOLVED. Kobe wasn't allowing it. Phil saw it. Phil made it happen. Those OTHER players took the Lakers HOME.... DESPITE Kobe. I would have sworn it was SABOTAGE he was so terrible.

In an interesting twist from the 'LeBron was meek' assertion/ cardinal sin---------Kobe was destroying his team's title hopes by being TOO assertive (and being incredibly UNSUCCESSFUL). He was freezing out his team. Phil had to shelve him momentarily (actually, it was MORE than a moment). Then Kobe was let back in------to JOIN what was happening-----NOT 'be' what was happening and the Lakers won.

It's bad for a legacy when you need a 'toddler timeout' in a Game #7 at home.

In Kobe's defense? There is none for the 'freeze out'. BUT, he was always ENGAGED. He grabbed 15 rebounds. James, who never lost sight of involving teamates, seemed 'lost' and 'disengaged'------and grabbed FOUR rebounds in a survival game at home.

They failed their teams in different ways in those games. Except Kobe got an MVP trophy and a ring. And LeBron 'has to go back to the drawing board'.

I prefer LeBron's 'problem'. And I believe he will figure it out. And when he does, he won't need to get benched so his team can take him home to an NBA title (not to mention a freaking MVP trophy).

And raw +/- has its issues, true, but we aren't talking about an outlier here. The numbers for Nowitzki are very well in agreement with the numbers for the whole season including the playoffs. I read ElGee's post about it, but in the end he doesn't account for the better floor spacing with Nowitzki and without Nowitzki. Barea for example made only 24% of his field goal attempts in the playoffs when Nowitzki wasn't on the court. In fact every single player of the Mavericks performed worse without Nowitzki on the court in terms of scoring efficiency. A similar thing can we see for the regular season. Somehow Nowitzki seems to impact the game which is not captured by boxscore stats and on ball action (the stuff ElGee tracks).

Raw +/- comes with its own issues. I tend not to use it if there isn't a large sample size to also use it with - you make some good points about how Nowitzki could've helped his team in other areas though. ElGee at back picks made some interesting posts about player impact in the Finals outside of scoring (which actually favors LBJ on the offensive end) at his blog.

Additional to that only in game 6 the Mavericks actually made a run when Nowitzki wasn't on the court, in all other wins he was on the court during the times the Mavericks actually achieved their leads. Nowitzki's impact isn't really seen in his boxscore numbers, but in his +/- numbers it is. When Nowitzki is on the court the Mavericks are much better in terms of floor spacing, ball and player movement. He also helps his team defensively much more than most people recognizing. The +/- based stats are capturing that. And Nowitzki achieved better +/- numbers than Wade or James in the finals.

Overall if we taking those win probability changes into account and the +/- numbers we can very well argue that Nowitzki was indeed the finals MVP even though he wasn't as efficient as usual.

you might want to update your post about the biggest NBA Finals Collapses. Because the Miami Heat actually had a 78.3% win probability after the 3rd quarter of game 4. That is the 2nd highest value of all losing teams.