Comments on: When Ray Allen Plays 30 Minutes…

By: AYC

AYC — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 23:49:29 +0000

According to Simmons, Allen had 5 fouls in 14 minutes. Hard to get a rhythm going when you're getting whistled every other minute; it's also hard to play agressively in the 13 remaining minutes when your next foul results in disqualification. The Celts wouldn't have been better off if he hadn't played, they would've been better off if the refs hadn't blown the whistle every time he breathed on Kobe

By: Gabe

Gabe — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 21:01:15 +0000

I would be curious what the correlation is between these numbers and the source overall APM numbers.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 20:26:59 +0000

I don't know that it's possible to determine in a given game if a player is doing poorly that he will continue to do poorly--you'd think that the weight of years of production is greater than a bad first quarter in terms of choosing whether to play a player (unless there is an injury/illness or something like that). That's an interesting quandary for the coach.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 19:48:10 +0000

The question -- "how important it was for the Celtics to have Allen play a substantial amount of time" -- should perhaps be asked as:

"How much time should Allen get when he's this unproductive?"

According to DSMok1 in this thread:
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2586
-- Ray had SPM of -8.59 in game 1 .

If a 'replacement level' player has SPM -3 (or thereabouts) it seems the Celts would have been better served if he had not played at all.
Giving him a few more minutes, would he have become very much better?

A good coach can see when a guy isn't doing well, and he goes to the bench. Fouls aren't the only reason.

By: zebulon

zebulon — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 05:45:40 +0000

But ray is traditionally characterized as the fourth best player on the celtics - after Rondo, Pierce, and KG. His skills (making the simple percentage play every time, shooting an eFG% of at least 50% from everywhere on the floor) are hugely underrated.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 20:59:50 +0000

Yeah. Ray Allen shows up as a clear top 30 player in the league.

By: Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 17:46:35 +0000

My friend always rolls his eyes when I show him how confusingly high Ray's APM is.

Looking at general trends in APM, non-volume floor spacers (like Ray, Rashard Lewis a year ago) are generally really underrated.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 16:41:43 +0000

I think that's a major flaw in the offense right now. Ray Allen and Pierce are the only big minute floor spacers on the team, and Pierce is the best one on one scorer, hence he's the one who needs the space. Obviously they've found a way to win, but against a huge front line and disciplined defense, it's tough.

By: AYC

AYC — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 16:25:09 +0000

Great post; the refs called last night's game way too tight. I'm not saying the Celts would have won, but they didn't have a chance with Ray Ray stuck on the bench