Comments on: Great Expectations, Part III

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:23:51 +0000

They're all significant at the 5% level, but I don't really get it either... except that maybe performance during the midseason grind before the All-Star break isn't representative of players' and teams' true abilities. Baseball has its "dog days" in late July and August -- could the NBA's version be happening in December & January? Also, I think nagging injuries probably start to hit after a month or two of play. You play through them, but they definitely affect your performance.

By: Kevin Pelton

Kevin Pelton — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:37:24 +0000

Neil, what does the history say about the meaning of the different coefficients? Are they statistically significant? While the explanation for October/November makes sense, I can't see why December would be such a relatively poor predictor.

By: Mountain

Mountain — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 07:47:48 +0000

Thanks for the substantial follow-thru.
Appreciate the strong work.