Comments on: Ten Thousand 2011 NCAA Tournaments http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Andrew http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46361 Sat, 19 Mar 2011 04:09:22 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46361 How is the required number of simulations for a MC sim. determined? I've tried to find info on this but have struggled to find anything. Obviously if you run the 10,000 simulations again and the percentages change significantly it would be an insufficient number, but could someone point me to a method that doesn't involve trial and error? Any help much appreciated.

]]> By: MikeN http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46222 Thu, 17 Mar 2011 06:22:21 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46222 Texas is a 4 seed rated #4 overall, so I would expect them to be a good pick.

]]> By: Matt http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46095 Tue, 15 Mar 2011 13:14:48 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46095 According to Pomeroy, Texas should have been a 1 seed, so that's why they're winning a lot in the sim.

Also, although Florida is highly overseeded, they are in a very weak bracket. The took BYU to overtime last year in the tourney and now the teams are essentially the same except BYU is missing Davies, so Florida may actually be a value pick there to get to the elite 8.

]]> By: Ian http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46055 Tue, 15 Mar 2011 00:58:47 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46055 I'm all for another pool!

]]> By: dsong http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46050 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 22:21:03 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46050 Ohio St. as the favorite?

I would lean toward Rock Chalk Nation if I was a betting man. Duke would be my second choice.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46047 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 22:11:53 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46047 In terms of the likeliest picks, it isn't. But the frequency table tells you how often you can expect each outcome to happen. Like AHL noticed in #4, somebody like Texas is a good value pick because they won the title in more sims than you'd expect from their seeding. Just eyeballing the ratings and making picks that way, you wouldn't pick up on something like that.

]]> By: MikeN http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46044 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 22:02:41 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46044 How is this different than just picking the top ratings?

]]> By: taylor http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46024 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 18:35:25 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46024 DSMok1,

Could you send me your bracket when you complete it by chance? Thanks

]]> By: AHL http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46005 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 16:39:26 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46005 The interesting outlier here is Texas, who's the 4 see in in Duke's bracket, yet they come out winning the championship more often than expected.

Probably because of my sad sack Arizona, who'll probably be 5-12'd this year =(

]]> By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045&cpage=1#comment-46000 Mon, 14 Mar 2011 16:05:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9045#comment-46000 I like to call it Lost Wages March Sadness, because so many watchable NBA games are not being shown in favor of college "basketball."

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