Comments on: Best Performances vs. Playoff Teams, 2000-2010 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: huevonkiller http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-23204 Sat, 21 Aug 2010 13:18:57 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-23204 The Cavs had a weak playoff supporting cast the past two seasons. There aren't too many elite teams they would have beat with Mo and Jamison playing the way they did.

]]>
By: Joseph http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-23039 Wed, 18 Aug 2010 11:19:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-23039 12: The Suns and Cavs do rack up wins against weaker teams, that's right, because most teams are weaker. The Suns have lost to who in the Playoffs, exactly? Lakers (two-time champs), Spurs (two-time champs) and the Mavericks (Finals runner-up) so, essentially, the Suns lost to great teams in the Playoffs, not terrible teams. The Cavaliers lost to Boston (champions and Finals runner-up), Orlando (Finals runner-up), and San Antonio (champion). While you could say they're similar, I think the credit should go to the teams who defeated them in the Playoffs rather than a feast on the weak.

]]>
By: Walter http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22992 Tue, 17 Aug 2010 16:03:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22992 Re: #8 - Seeing the Cavs on the list only once isn't too big a surprise. They have only been a really good team for 2 years (2008-09 and 2009-10). Other than that they never had more than 50 wins in a season (equivalent to an 8th seed in the West many years).

People often view them as a great team because over a 5 year stretch they at least made the conference semi's, once made the finals, and twice had the best record in the league. But when you really break it down, the Cavs consistently took advantage of what the Eastern Conference called playoff teams (2006 WAS 42 Wins, 2007 WAS 41 Wins, 2007 NJ 41 Wins, 2008 WAS 43 Wins, 2009 DET 39 Wins, & 2010 CHI 41 Wins). That is 6 playoff series victories against teams with no more than 43 wins (in other words, non-playoff teams if in the West). Cleveland's ONLY win against a true playoff team was the 2007 Detroit Pistons but even they only won 53 games despite playing in the easier Eastern Conference. That Pistons team would have been a 5th seed in the West so even they weren't really a great playoff team. The 5 times the Cavs went up against a TRUE heavy weight they lost all five series.

I think the Cavs are similar to the Suns in that they are a team that racks up wins in the regular season by feasting on the weaker teams that don't play defense (notice Phoenix only made the list twice despite posting 54+ wins five times in 6 seasons). However in the playoffs against good defenses that are given time to prepare their one-dimensional offenses are somewhat limited and thus they struggle.

]]>
By: Walter http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22990 Tue, 17 Aug 2010 15:40:42 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22990 The big surprise to me is the East vs West desparity! Of the top 21 teams only 4 teams from the East appear on the list: 2009 Cleveland (6), 2008 Boston (11), 2010 Orlando (12), and 2004 Detroit (19).

I know the East has not been very good, but I would have expected them to do better in this list simply because they played a disproportionately high number of games against 40 win "playoff teams" in the East.

Also, all but 3 of the teams on that list were eliminated from the playoffs by another team on the list (no shame in that) or went on to win the title. The only teams eliminated by a team not on the list was: 2010 Orlando, 2006 Detroit, and 2006 Dallas.
The Orlando team was knocked out by the Boston Celtics who had a dissapointing regular season (against many teams) but turned it on in the playoffs. The two teams from 2006 were both eliminated by the eventual champion Miami Heat who are not on the list.

]]>
By: BSK http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22946 Tue, 17 Aug 2010 02:13:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22946 It does seem like a better measure would be to use the top X teams.

I'm curious how the talent disparity between the conferences and the relative strength of the lower playoff seeds in each conference impacts things. I'm not too familiar with all of the advanced stats, but my guess is that these studies take into account the strength of each team. Still, it doesn't seem to do us much good to consider how well the 2008 Celtics did against the 37-45 #8 Hawks, especially when the Lakers of that same year had a 50-32 team as the #8 seed. Maybe I'm missing the boat, but I'm curious as to how that might impact things and whether there is a better predictor of success than this study.

]]>
By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22931 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 23:33:05 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22931 2005 was the season where Duncan was hurt and wound up playing limited games / minutes in the reg season and Manu really blossomed, and then they both had it going in the playoffs. I'm still surprised the SRS is that high without the Shaq-Lakers there to challenge them in the West.

]]>
By: Anonymous Lurker http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22906 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 22:05:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22906 Wow, I didn't expect the Cavs to only appear once in the top 30. They just seemed so dominant during the regular season.

]]>
By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22899 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:43:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22899 Re: #5 - With the current setup of including playoff results, any study predicting the postseason would be circular. I can, however, look into how performance vs. playoff teams in the regular-season translates to the postseason.

]]>
By: marparker http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22896 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:27:15 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22896 tgt,
That research has been completely refuted. They don't even mention it on the site any longer

]]>
By: tgt http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213&cpage=1#comment-22892 Mon, 16 Aug 2010 18:55:41 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7213#comment-22892 Instead of arguing without evidence, how about you actually do some research and see if SRS or win percentage against playoff teams is a predictor of success? I'd suspect SRS against the top 8 in the league overall would be a better predictor, but these things can be counter intuitive. Look at FO's research on Guts and Stomps. They found that in the NFL, destroying bad teams was a better predictor of post season success than barely beating good teams.

]]>