Comments on: ‘Melo’s MVP Numbers… Or Not http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Nate T. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13030 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:02:07 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13030 This is just a ridiculous article.

Of the 192 total minutes of basketball the Nuggets have played ... Melo has been on the floor for 146 of them aka 76% of the time.

Pretty obvious that Melo can't pitch a shut-out over that course of time when the majority of points are being scored.

I'll take 4-0 over +/- any day of the week.

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By: Frontrange http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13023 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:27:30 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13023 The defenders of the +/- in this case are missing the point . . you should be ? why this doesn't pass the laugh test and what are we missing as opposed to blindly defending it. Question some of your assumptions.

1) +/- intellectually is very appealing 'cause it should catch all actions on the court and the end result is demonstrative of win/loss, so where could there be errors?

2) +/- is famously inconsistent from season to season. One of the reason Hollinger defends PER is predictibility over time. If it represents true individual ability why the large std deviation?

3) Role players are much easier to find than stars (virtually by defination). Just because a role player can statistically be shown to contribute significantly to a team's ability to win does not equate to greater value. Some skills, while very valuable to winning are not hard to find. That is: effort, picking, blocking out, rotations are pretty easy things to do. Thus a player that does them well like Najera (or Dantay Jones) are not that hard to replace. Gaudy +/- from these types of players are just not as valuable as bringing hard to replicate skills to the table such as height (thus overpaying big men) and the abilty to create high % shots no matter what the defensive is. Anthony is very effective at creating high % scoring opportunities even when the defense is focused on him (FT and good FG%), there just aren't a lot of guys with that skill.

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By: Ryan M http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13022 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:26:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13022 Instead of trying to use +/- stats on an individual player, i think it would make it way more interesting to find out what five players play best together based on positions. Why don't you take all that time you have and find out who the best five starters would be for the Denver Nuggets and email George karl!

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13014 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 15:02:22 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13014 I don't remember a Neil Payne post bringing this sort of rancorous enthusiasm without the words "Kobe", "Isiah", or "Win Share" in it before now.

FYI Melo was +9 last night. To recap that's:

+4 v. Memphis
+4 v. Portland
-7 v. Utah
+9 v. Indiana

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By: matuldi klinsmann http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13012 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:06:23 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13012 OK Neil & Tsunami,

LeBron and MJ is above all.Are you satisfied?

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By: Dave http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13009 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:36:52 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13009 If anything, you have convinced me that looking at these kind of statistics is worthless when it comes to evaluating a player. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that Carmelo is the Nuggets' MVP and one of the best players in the league.

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By: Empirical Earl http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13008 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:07:54 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13008 Sample size is irrelevant. The variables are: who you [the player] are playing (both the team and the individual match up); are you have a good shooting night; are your teammates having a good shooting night; is the other team shooting well or poorly; etc.

A player can play well and lose, or play shitty and win. The point is - there are multiple factors that a player can not control or affect that will be erroneously represented in a simultaneous broad and non-tangible stat like +/-.

Points ARE something. They equate to a quantifiable entity. Melo scored 41 out of 97 points v. Portland. That's 42% of tangible contribution.

And I agree that an empirical judgment is subjective, but I'd rather debate the minutiae of actual game tape vs. legitimacy of a player's contributions in a stat that can not be placed within a reasonable context.

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By: Matt http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13007 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:03:59 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13007 I don't really understand what you're saying.

Anthony Carter career stats without playing without Anthony:
4.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 37.0% FG

Anthony Carter career stats playing WITH Anthony:
6.6 ppg, 5.1 apg, 44.5% FG

If you can tell me how that is not making a player better, then I don't know what not. And maybe AC is not the worst player in the NBA, but he is darn close. Bottom 1-5 probably. Bottom 10 without a doubt. Hell name me worst players in the league.

And yes, Carter does affect Carmelo's +/- stats. Apart from the Indiana Pacers game tonight, the Nuggets have trialed every 1st quarter when Carter was in the game and have cut deficits when Arron Afflalo/Ty Lawson enter the game for Carter at that point. That is when Carmelo was also playing hence why he gets a - stat at that point, and when he comes off the bench.

Now this article is just silly. You're telling me that the Nuggets would start 4-0 if Carmelo didn't play and provide the 35 whatever ppg he averaged?

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By: Tsunami http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13006 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:54:55 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13006 "It doesn't make sense.

It's a stat with too many unknown variables."

You start to decrease those unknown variables as the season goes on, though. Everyone here agrees it is a small sample size, but you can't disregard it. So many fans hate advanced statistics but they basically don't reaffirm their long standing beliefs about players. +/- is a nice tool to weed through all the crap.

And for all the people saying, "we watch the games and it's obvious that this player or that player is dominant" - maybe so, but maybe your subjective view of the NBA isn't exactly accurate.

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By: Terri http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855&cpage=1#comment-13005 Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:17:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3855#comment-13005 You're really going to try that circular argument on me? Really? Mark Jackson would say you were better than that. So let me get this straight-Carter is the worst player NBA right now. He is also better than ever before, thanks almost entirely to the calming influence of Carmelo Anthony. So he was so bad before playing with Carter, he was like the worst player in the history of basketball. And yet this was a man who played 7 NBA seasons before he even met Carmelo Anthony. A man who was playing in the NBA when Anthony was in freaking middle school. So you're saying simultaneously that Carter is the worst player in the NBA, the only reason Anthony's +/- is so bad, and also that he was much worse before playing with Anthony, despite the fact that Hall of Fame coach Pat Riley was playing him 24 mpg 7 years before Carter and Anthony even knew each other? WTF? That's circular, dude. You can't have it both ways.

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