It doesn't properly adjust for "time" needed to score. Minutes and pace are not enough.

"How exactly should Win Shares take into account shot clock usage?"

Maybe it can't yet Deepak (durvasa? ;])? Oh well.

Dude, I know who "Deepak" is (I believe he is also known as "durvasa" IIRC), I am quite aware of what was tweaked.

Your site is interesting but different from 82games. I simply pointed out a nuance not accounted for. Pace is part of "time", you did indeed tweak for "time".

He takes quite a bit of shots 16-24 seconds into the possession (47% of total shots in the regular season and 50% in the post-season). It is very clear to me that you are not measuring time usage correctly.

Posessions is simply not good enough. LeBron is one of the few All-Stars in this league that takes 45+% (usually stars hover around 30-35%) of his shots between 16-24 seconds left. 82games.com is the source."

Are you suggesting that a player contributes less to wins the more often takes shots late in the shot clock? How exactly should Win Shares take into account shot clock usage?

The Hawks with an injured Joe Johnson and Al Horford? Yeah they got even more awful. Kobe had 30 PER in the Conference Finals and locked up Melo after Ariza couldn't guard him, also had 27+ PER against the Rockets who have better perimeter defense than the Magic. Then 27+ PER against the Magic in the Finals, while deferring the ball much more than Bron-Bron had the series before.

Justin Kubatko tweaked Win Shares to account for time. Simple as that, we're not discussing how sweet his stats look, but an objective analysis of the truth which is he handles the ball (good or bad), more than any other Superstar in the league.

Let me quote Justin:

"I was overrating the Warriors players and underrating the Blazers players. In terms of the overall prediction error this did not have a large effect (the overall error did drop, but not by much),"

There is no reason to complain about these issues to me, my comments are completely on-topic. This isn't a love/hate situation, Win Shares has overrated pace-inflated players before according to Justin himself.

It doesn't matter who you are, if your teammates either aren't producing or creating shots you're gonna be handling the ball on offense more often than those who play on loaded teams. If you followed Kobe during the '06 season (and he's just one of about a gazillion examples out there that demonstrate this fact) you would know exactly what I mean.

The beauty of WS is not only does it take one's role in the offense into account (i.e., superstars vs. all-stars vs. role players), it is also pace-adjusted. So there's no bias against teams that play at a slower tempo than others -- which, by the way, LeBron's Cavs has played at pretty much his entire career.

Also, the Cavs has played against the Hawks in the playoffs, who were virtually identical to the Jazz defensively, and the Magic who was the best defensive team in the league. LeBron has played like an MVP against both squads.

P.S. I love "Is LeBron the best player in the league?" arguments too. Never gets old lol

Oh, and I've been watching Phil Jackson coach the triangle offense since 1990. I know whereof I speak. LeBron might not play the same role as MJ or Kobe exactly, but he would be monstrously effective in Tex Winter's system. Scottie Pippen had a suspect jumper too when he didn't use glass, and his post game, while adequate, wasn't anything spectacular either (it got better in their second three peat, but he hardly got to use it because MJ was option 1, 2, and 3). But he was amazing inside the triangle because of his point forward skills. LeBron brings those same assets to bear - except he's better. Like Pip, he's a point forward, but he's a much better playmaker and a much better passer overall. Like Luke Walton, Bron's court vision would be much more of a blessing in an offense designed to create open shots through ball and player movement than it is in a heavy-paced, drive and kick system. Bron is also an excellent post-feeder, a great skill to have in the triple post offense. And LeBron excelled without the ball in the Olympics playing with Paul and Kidd. Moving without the ball is not a concern.

Why am I arguing a hypothetical Bron / PJax pairing, you may ask? Because I'm on my lunch break, and nobody here wants to talk ball!

Kobe has played even better without Gasol and Odom, I don't know what that really has to do with anything.

"If LeBron operated in the triangle, I imagine he would be ridiculously good at it and less likely to pound the ball all day. Kobe would be likely to get more stats (and I'm not 100% sold on the notion that increased usage leads to lower efficiency as regards great players. makes sense for the more skill-limited unwashed masses sure), but even at his most aggressive with his weakest team, he just wasn't on the same level of production as James."

At his most aggressive, he doesn't need nearly as much time as LeBron to score. That's exactly the point. I wouldn't be poo-pooing 28 PER for 41 minutes a night. LeBron's teammates are also better defensively.

LeBron does not have a mid range jumpshot or post moves, he would be more miserable in the triangle. Nor would he handle the ball nearly as much since the Triangle requires constant ball movement.

Players on the Warriors and Suns have inflated numbers because (while they may have a nice True Shooting percentage or whatever), they needed more time to score those points. I never said LeBron wasn't a great player, but his PER is indeed inflated because it is not completely penalizing him for time.

Completely ignoring any stat, and just looking at him play I don't know why anyone is surprised. Yes his teammates are spot up shooters and he needs to dribble the ball and waste more shot clock than anyone to run that kind of offense. It works to a degree (we'll see about the Post-season), he's a great player, but 82games adds another time component simply not accounted for on this great website. Regardless of my disagreements with Blog Writer X, I still like having such discussions and reading anyone's thoughts on these subjects. I am not saying he's some crazy hog (he's been given the green light to do this within his offense), but other nuances are not being taken into account.