Comments on: Playoff Wins Above Expected

By: Downpuppy

Downpuppy — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 16:55:14 +0000

The 1980s Celtics were more overachievers in the regular season than tankers in the playoffs. KC Jones took the (very sensible) approach of sending out a bunch of stars & letting them go crazy. Less of the minutes management, more meaningless wins. 308 wins in 5 years, then they got old.

The odd thing about all this was how obvious it was as it happened, and how clear it was that KC didn't have any real choice.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 13:56:48 +0000

The obvious follow-up data-dump would be to rank players by (Playoff) Win Shares vs Expected Win Shares. Totals and ratio.
You could figure out the normal ratio of PO/RS Win Shares, and use that as a basis for Expected.
Or with more work you could (as in this study) do it by opponent. I just don't know how you'd do that.

This could separate the coattail-riders from the stepper-uppers.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 13:38:45 +0000

I'd have been shocked if Robert Horry didn't top this list. How many players reached at least the 2nd round in 16 consecutive seasons?
The Jordan/Pippen Bulls almost always knocked out their first-round opponent in a sweep, and only twice went to 7 games. Pretty remarkable.
They never faced Horry in the playoffs!

I think, too, the Bird Celtics never 'upset' anyone in the playoffs?

It is surprising that Cliff Robinson is not at the bottom in WAE. Terry Porter edges him out, apparently bringing doom to his later clubs -- Min, Mia, SA.

Sort by (delta)WPct -- Stacey King rules!

Great stuff, Neil. An Instant Classic.

By: Alvy

Alvy — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 12:22:00 +0000

Jordan is great, but players like Grant, Pippen and Rodman are more than exceptional players on their own right, so no Jordan didn't entirely boost their WAE

By: Rich Rifkin

Rich Rifkin — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 02:20:26 +0000

I would have apparently been a much greater basketball player if I had Michael Jordan as my teammate:

Scottie Pippen 1988 2003 208 136 72 117 91 0.090 18.72
Horace Grant 1988 2002 170 109 61 94 76 0.092 15.59
Dennis Rodman 1987 1998 169 116 53 101 68 0.088 14.96
Bill Cartwright 1981 1994 124 78 46 64 60 0.118 14.65
John Salley 1987 2000 134 90 44 78 56 0.093 12.43
Rich Rifkin 1994 2008 203 123 80 111 92 0.059 11.90
B.J. Armstrong 1990 1999 105 71 35 59 46 0.113 11.88
John Paxson 1985 1994 119 74 45 62 57 0.099 11.81
Will Perdue 1989 2001 108 72 36 61 47 0.097 10.51
Steve Kerr 1990 2003 128 86 42 76 52 0.073 9.38
Stacey King 1990 1996 61 44 17 35 26 0.151 9.21
Scott Williams 1991 2004 94 61 33 52 42 0.094 8.82

By: Ben

Ben — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 21:51:11 +0000

I imagine Jordan will be well above expectation in championships, but I think many would dispute that much of that was luck. The question certainly wouldn't be settled. It would be difficult to figure out how to do so. Still, it would be very interesting to see the results.

By: Ben

Ben — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 19:43:11 +0000

BTW, Phil Jackson must be way over expectation as coach, right?

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 19:12:35 +0000

That's a good point -- the WAE list is dominated by modern players because they play far more playoff games now. Good idea, too, using end-of-season championship probability and seeing which teams/players fell short the most. I'll have to put that study together at some point. I do disagree with that Knickerblogger post to an extent, though... Not that Jordan's the GOAT (he is), but that he was unnaturally "lucky" to win those rings. Using your idea about end-of-season championship probability and expected championships, we can actually see what the probability was that Jordan's run was due to random chance vs. skill. I'm guessing the odds that chance was responsible will be extraordinarily low...

By: Ben

Ben — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 18:45:11 +0000

Another issue is that there were simply more games some years rather than others. I'd be curious to see championships above expectation. Use the BR playoff probability report at the end of the regular season to determine the expected number of championships. I was thinking about this after reading knickerblogger recently on in addition to being great, Jordan was rather fortunate in the playoffs. This would be an interesting way to quantify that.

Ben

By: Jason J

Jason J — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 17:19:43 +0000

You think maybe the Celt's playoff record is that way because the top of the East was so tough in the '80s? They pretty much always had to deal with Phili, Milwaukee, Detroit, or LA. No cakewalks after round 1 really.