Comments on: BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 18, 2011)

By: Anon

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 20:00:38 +0000

"But I think of power rankings as meaning something like the chances a team can win a championship, or the likelihood it can beat other teams in the playoffs."

Um, which is what point differential is for in the first place?

This is just annoying now. Congratulations for being 3-0 against the Heat, in which two of those wins CAME AGAINST AT TEAM THAT HAD BARELY PLAYED TOGETHER ON THE COURT early in the season and another win at home by an epic smackdown of three points. Funny how the hypocrites in the media bash the Heat for their record vs. Boston and yet talk about the Lakers being favorites in a series with the Spurs in a series, with SA taking both games they've played this season. And then use the Lakers titles from PAST SEASONS (which are irrelevant to the current season) as the rationale for their pick.

You've seen posts on point differential being the best predictor of wins, and another post about the importance of HCA (which is implicity linked to point differential, since higher PT usually translates to more wins and helps you obtain HCA). Boston is a great team and can take a series against Miami...but so can Miami.

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By: huevonkiller

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 07:18:19 +0000

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8260

#1 Yeah, your "reality" was probably not nuanced enough to rank them properly in November.

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By: huevonkiller

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 07:10:27 +0000

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8831

If Miami loses to the Wizards in December (they stole that game), and beat the Celtics by 1 in their last game, what does that mean? People don't want to admit it but a small point differential comes down to luck. If Boston is really better they'll keep decisively beating Miami, and I don't see that.

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By: huevonkiller

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 07:07:13 +0000

Boston beats them by an average of 19? I didn't know that.

It favors Miami because the point differential isn't far enough to exclude luck. In your case Boston has won two close games, and the Heat are better than at the beginning of the year. When they lost 2 of those 3 games.

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By: KevinG

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 04:36:32 +0000

"a predictive one (like this) takes into account point differential, and it uses hundreds of games worth of evidence rather than merely looking at three."

What do you mean by predictive, Neil? If you mean that present point differential predicts future point differential, then you're probably right.

But I think of power rankings as meaning something like the chances a team can win a championship, or the likelihood it can beat other teams in the playoffs. Miami has had trouble with Boston and I don't see how having a better point differential is going to change that. That Miami can beat Cleveland by 28 while Boston only beats them by 19 is nice for Miami but I don't see how predictive it is in something like a power ranking.

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By: Neil Paine

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 02:36:42 +0000

Seems like Scott Skiles teams have a tendency to inexplicably tank offensively due to poor jump-shooting... After winning 49 with a younger-than-average core in 2007, the 2008 Bulls seemed poised for a great season. Instead, their offense collapsed under the weight of bricked J's, and they went 33-49 (with Skiles himself being canned following a 9-16 start).

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By: P Middy

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 01:37:26 +0000

I tell ya, if those Bucks could make a jumpshot, they'd me right in the mix. Their D is the bomb.

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By: huevonkiller

Sat, 19 Feb 2011 00:11:05 +0000

Don't try to make any series a lock, when the point differential and sample size is so small.

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By: Jason J

Fri, 18 Feb 2011 20:32:39 +0000

I gotta say also that I can remember too many times when a team lost a season series to an opponent and then beat them in the playoffs to put too much stock in head to head encounters.

One prominent example would be the year Jordan hit "The Shot" to get past Cleveland. The Cavs actually swept the season series (Jordan then guaranteed Chicago would win the playoff series, so it's a good thing he made that shot...).

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By: Greyberger

Fri, 18 Feb 2011 17:30:39 +0000