Comments on: BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (December 17, 2010)

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 21:33:12 +0000

I just completed an algorithm of my own for ranking teams. Here's how they look, through games of 12/20:

Team	Off	Def	Margin	Pace
BOS	3.6	-6.9	10.5	90.4
MIA	4.1	-4.4	8.5	90.5
LAL	6.6	-1.0	7.6	92.6
SAS	5.5	-2.1	7.5	92.2
DAL	1.8	-4.4	6.2	91.0
UTA	4.9	-0.5	5.4	89.9
CHI	-2.7	-7.3	4.6	91.6
DEN	4.2	1.6	2.6	96.1
NOH	-2.0	-3.8	1.8	90.4
ORL	-0.4	-2.2	1.8	90.7
OKC	3.8	2.1	1.7	92.5
POR	1.0	-0.3	1.3	87.4
MEM	-1.5	-2.5	1.1	92.4
ATL	0.7	-0.3	1.0	90.0
PHI	-1.0	-1.9	0.9	91.3
HOU	3.2	2.3	0.8	93.6
NYK	3.1	2.9	0.3	96.0
PHO	5.9	5.8	0.1	94.7
IND	-3.4	-2.5	-0.9	94.0
MIL	-7.9	-4.8	-3.1	90.1
TOR	1.1	4.7	-3.5	93.5
LAC	-2.0	1.6	-3.6	90.9
GSW	-0.3	4.0	-4.3	94.2
CHA	-4.8	-0.4	-4.4	89.7
NJN	-5.0	0.1	-5.2	89.3
MIN	-2.0	3.9	-5.9	97.4
DET	-1.2	5.3	-6.5	88.4
WAS	-3.7	3.6	-7.3	93.4
CLE	-6.2	3.0	-9.2	92.5
SAC	-5.2	4.5	-9.7	91.6

Differences from Neil's: I included the effect of rest days, and minimized the residuals^1.5, rather than squared residuals.

By: Greyberger

Greyberger — Sat, 18 Dec 2010 22:01:31 +0000

The Dolphin Rankings (sorting by predictive) fits right in with the others. Dolphin, Hollinger and BBR.com like the same top six. The disagreement in the schedule-adjusted differential schemes is in what it looks like below the Bulls, and whether there's a precipitous drop-off before seven.

BBStats Rankings typically match what I see here, it must use generally the same inputs.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Sat, 18 Dec 2010 19:21:05 +0000

You should probably throw Andrew Dolphin (co-author of The Book) in there, too:

http://www.dolphinsim.com/ratings/nba/

By: Greyberger

Greyberger — Sat, 18 Dec 2010 19:06:48 +0000

This is a week for agreement. These rankings and the Hollinger set (as of Saturday afternoon) have the same teams one through six in slightly different order. BBstats' NBA Rankings isn't far off the conventional wisdom, rating the Bulls lower and the Magic higher. I dig automated rankings. Are there any other prominent/good systems that I didn't mention?

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Sat, 18 Dec 2010 17:23:03 +0000

My bad, totally forgot about that (although in fairness, I was on vacation this past week). I'll try to get to it sometime over the next few weeks.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Sat, 18 Dec 2010 14:55:27 +0000

I'd still like to see the adjustment for rest days sometime... :-)

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 22:36:58 +0000

The Celtics start off hot the last few years. 22-5 last year I believe.

However this season, I think age and LeBron will eventually catch up to them.