Comments on: Layups: If MJ Hadn’t Retired in ’93… Or ’99

By: Payam Sharifi

Payam Sharifi — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 21:47:40 +0000

If Chamberlain was allowed to play right out of high school, you could predict 2,500-3,000 points for each of those 4 seasons. That's up to 12,000 extra points in his column. Plus, he did miss almost whole season of basketball in 1969-1970 with that knee surgery, which if he averaged 20 points a game he woudl have had an extra 1,300 points(I think he played 16 games out of the 80 games in that season...it may have been a total 82 games by that point not sure.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:10:24 +0000

I'm not old enough to say so for sure, but my understanding is that Wilt's numbers dropped off due to coaching more than ability. He was on uptempo teams that used him as a featured scorer less often. Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, and Gail Goodrich got to be the offensive heroes while he dominated the boards (and was still fairly impressive as a scorer). That is still a fair point. It's impossible to predict potential changes in playing style - particularly in this case where the Bulls were getting a new coach in '99. I actually wonder if Jordan moving from the wing to the post after his baseball comeback didn't have more to do with his drop in production (compared to what he did in prior to retirement) than anything.

By: Bradlee

Bradlee — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 15:08:19 +0000

Great article I enjoyed reading it, but you never know. I bet at one time if you would have projected Wilt Chamberlain’s career, you could have projected him to 50K points, but is scoring dropped off sharply and he didn’t play as many seasons (he did enter the league older than the others).

By: Kevin Pelton

Kevin Pelton — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 00:46:58 +0000

The fact that Jordan's 95-96 season was so much better than SCHOENE would have projected lends some credence to this, though as noted it is very conservative when it comes to star-caliber players.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 17:15:01 +0000

That's possible, Mike. Though I have a feeling the second someone intimated that Penny or Hill were "the next Jordan" he would rededicate himself to destroying them and probably bump his production right back up.

By: Mike G

Mike G — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:13:49 +0000

I thought Jordan 'retired' in order to get away from the grind, refocus his priorities, recharge his batteries and such. If he doesn't take a couple of years off, maybe he wins _Fewer_ titles, etc.

By: Roy Johnson

Roy Johnson — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 21:32:21 +0000

The whole article is just pure guess and fantasy thinking. Doesn't factor in injuries and game suspensions. Just another article trying to make Lebron the greatest. And for the pos. Lebron plays mostly (SF) it will be hard for him to get 10,000 reb and 10,000 ast.

And besides by the time 2021 comes around, I dont think Lebron will even still be playing.

By: Keith Ellis

Keith Ellis — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:46:43 +0000

JasonJ wrote: It's very difficult to say what would have happened to his stats moving forward from '98 if Pippen and Jackson left and Jordan remained. You can see from the splits that Jordan's boards and assists dropped off after Pippen got healthy in '98. Without Pippen after '98, Jordan's numbers (& the Bulls' success) would've resembled MJ's pre-&-post-Pippen periods, playing for a sub-.500 ballclub w/ greater interest in individual Assists & Rebounding -- an attempt to return to the mini-Oscar role Mike played in the Eighties (w/ Cincy Royals-esque results), declining to the Johnny Johnson-in-Cleveland role he played in the 2000s.

By: AYC

AYC — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 18:01:34 +0000

One thing stat-heads sometimes forget is that players aren't just stat machines; they can think about what they're doing, and set goals for themselves; MJ in his prime was intent on scoring over 30ppg every year. No way does he fail to do it in 94 and 95. Also I think once the ability to win scoring titles left due to age, MJ's assist numbers would have gone back up (his goals would have changed), so the assist projections for the later years are probably too low also; just look at his asst avg the first year with WAS. Anyway, it's amazing to imagine how much better his career would've been; I'd guess MJ would've won 13 consecutive scoring titles, with 10 consecutive 30+ seasons.

By: Tsunami

Tsunami — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:49:53 +0000

People very often forget that the Cavs play one of the slowest paces in the league.