You could have chosen better examples. The LA/Cleveland example is just 1 game so it does not tell us much, if anything at all. As for the Detroit/LA finals, Detroit had no one to defend Shaq so they didn't really try. Instead they focused on everyone else (especially Kobe) because a team can overcome an individual, which is exactly what happened.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2004_finals.html

I agree that the Heat can beat the Celtics. My concern is let's say things go according to plan and Lebron shuts down Pierce, Bosh neutralizes Garnett and Wade slows down Rondo. That still leaves Ray Allen wide open far too often. He can still score in bunches (see 2010 finals game 2, 2009 1st round) not to mention Miami's big 3 advantage is neutralized by Boston's depth. The Celtics have 5 guys (Pierce, Allen, Garnett, Rondo, Davis) who consistently score double figures and 2 other guys (Shaq, Perkins) who are capable.

I agree, he sacrifices energy to slow down LeBron, but he doesn't slow him down *that* much.

Boston will beat the Heat because the Heat match up poorly against them. They don't have the quality big me that Boston can throw out there. And they have no answer for Rondo. Rondo can do whatever he wants out there, basically. The Heat are small and have a short bench.

A more interesting matchup will be Boston and SA, if it comes to that. SA has some quality bigs too and a deep bench. Boston beat them without Garnett but I'm not sure how much you can really bring away from that. It was a home game for Boston and they (SA) might have just had an off night."

I feel a lot of what you're saying. I also believe Doc will attempt to rest his horses as the season wears down, but it may be easier said than done if they want to continue to compete for the #1 seed, which I believe they will want to do. There is still over 3 months to go to get to the Finals and that's plenty of time for the unforeseen. Especially when the combined age of the guys in question is 100 years. And I don't mean they'll just be eligible to suit up. I mean playing at 90-100%-to where they're totally effective.

As far as your confidence that Boston will beat the Heat because of match-up issues, I can't totally disagree. However, I'm positive that you can't disagree either that there have been numerous times in NBA history where the team who had the supposed favorable match-up lost when it seemed improbable. It happens regularly. In a small way we just saw it tonight when LA was clowned by Cleveland. Who does Cleveland have to contend with the 7' foot invasion LA throws out there? Who did Detroit have to match-up with Shaq when they overcame tall odds? So matchups can be overrated. In a series that has been decided by very points, I believe they most definitely are.

Further, when we analyze The Lebron team vs.Boston matchup, there is virtually no differentiation other than the outcome of the post season series. He's pretty much split contests with these guys when most of the time his 2nd best teammate was Z, who never played over a 21 PER level. Now with Bosh at a 20 level and Wade at a 25 level how can Spo mess it up, and LeBron not advance?

Heat's Big 3 play about 110 minutes a night. In the playoffs that number will bump up to around 130. You'd be hard pressed to find three more consistent guys you can count on as a coach. This makes the job that much easier. Of the 240 minutes a coach has to divide, the fewer minutes he has to utilize a player who he doesn't know for sure what he'll contribute the better. In the past, Lebron's coach had to come up with 196 minutes of mixing and matching players who were poor playoff performers that MIGHT step up, with a guy that was going to bring it for 44 minutes guaranteed. This left too much weight upon the coach to be as stellar as his superstar. Same with Spoelstra. He could count on Wade for 42 minutes, but who else? So the pressure was really on the coach. As great as the individuals were, and NOBODY has been better in the playoffs than James since Jordan, they couldn't beat multiple quality players.

But now, like all quality teams, Miami has to only worry about average players playing above average level for small portions of a contest. If a coach only needs to recognize who else is playing well and what units are clicking for 100 minutes, rather than 200, it takes a whole lot of pressure off his back. This will be the case with Miami in the playoffs EVERY year while this cast assembled. It's gonna be hard for a coach to mess this up.

Now SA is serious despite their age, and everyone should be taking them as a threat. Only 7 teams have ever jumped out to 40 or more wins before losing 7 games and 6 of the 7 took home the hardware...

In 2004 the Pistons beat the favored Lakers in the Finals to win their first title since 1990. If Boston unravels like that, there will be many happy Celtics fans this summer.