Comments on: Projected Player Skill Index http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Liev http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28921 Tue, 19 Oct 2010 06:18:19 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28921 "Dwight Howard's been working with Hakeem and Pat on post moves all summer. Plus he said no more mr. nice guy. Mentally throw another 5 points on his SPMs."

I don't know if you're being serious, probably not but I'm not going to believe Howard has improved his skill level until he shows it in an actual regular season game. If it was so easy that one could just go to Hakeem and come away with a whole new bag of tricks, there would be a horde of Olajuwon clones because he's been teaching for awhile. I really don't understand this whole Hakeem mentor thing: so nobody else has taught Howard counter moves or how to shoot off the glass before?

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By: Nick http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28592 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 23:13:11 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28592 "It is unusual for most players to have a complete skill set (see KG comment),"

It's unheard of, actually. KG doesn't. If you look at the list, a lot of the top players are below average in the same thing (LeBron, for example, his only below average stat): Turnovers per 36. Those stay low when you aren't part of the offense that handles the ball.

Let's be clear: Steve Nash is dead last. Having a low turnovers per 36 isn't an indication that you are good at passing or avoiding turnovers, it's a sign that you aren't trusted with the ball in the first place.

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By: Dave http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28572 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 21:24:05 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28572 @Neil "greater FGA and ORB are correlated with worse defense" I understand what you are saying here, but I don't think this makes sense to incorporate into a metric.

Players have to have certain skills from a set of valuable basketball skills, offensive and defensive. If a player has sufficiently good skills in a particular area, especially if it matches a need for a team, (yes I'm thinking of Bruce Bowen)then they get to play in the NBA, despite weakness in other areas of the game.

It is unusual for most players to have a complete skill set (see KG comment), but it seems wrong to assume that each player in the NBA is going to have some sort of average skill set - that's exactly the opposite of what occurs, teams require players with complementary skills, so often recruit players with specific abilities - Mike Miller anyone?
Further, many players have considerable value because they are typical of their position but they have excellent skills in a specific atypical area - Centers who can shoot 3s - shooting guards who rebound and block shots etc.

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By: Bob http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28571 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 21:12:37 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28571 James would've had a godly year had he stayed in Cleveland. I would've expected around 32 8 8 this year had he stayed.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28562 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 18:11:27 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28562 Also, remember that the SPS numbers aren't adjusted for pace or team defense, so a team like Golden State is going to be massively inflated by their tempo. I'm going to do some work in the next week, though, on this theory I have, that coaches carry with them a predictable offensive and defensive team adjustment to SPM (i.e., Gregg Popovich will always lower your DSPM by 0.7 pts/100, etc). If true, we can add a team adjustment to the raw O/DSPM numbers projected by the SPS, and come up with some predicted efficiency levels for the 2010-11 season that way.

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By: Ray http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28559 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 17:55:47 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28559 "Neil Paine Says:
October 12th, 2010 at 2:20 pm

Obviously the method is not going to be 100% perfect, which is why this really rudimentary DSPM regression only explains 28% of the variation in defensive performance -- by comparison, the OSPM regression explains 65% of the variation in offensive performance."

No kidding. It has Golden State with one of the most elite defensive starting 5!

Still, great work. And hopefully it's on to something with Miami as the only team with 5 starters + first 2 guys off the bench all above-average defensively. But Joel Anthony is still a black hole on offense...

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By: P Middy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28553 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:56:54 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28553 Dwight Howard's been working with Hakeem and Pat on post moves all summer. Plus he said no more mr. nice guy. Mentally throw another 5 points on his SPMs.

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By: DSMok1 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28552 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:53:40 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28552 I've started work on some comprehensive aging curves. I'm getting the peak age to be 26.

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By: Jason J http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28551 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 16:39:33 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28551 #10 - Good point, Neil. It gives some indication of what the amigos are capable of sans each other. Wade is the only one we'd expect to see any drop off in, right? He's going to be 29.

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By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631&cpage=1#comment-28542 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 13:17:31 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=7631#comment-28542 No, it makes no attempt to account for the player's 2011 teammates. Obviously in cases like Miami that's going to mean scoring is overestimated, but cases like that where it makes a big difference are rare. Besides, one cool thing about projections is that it captures a player's past demonstrated skill level, and the "true scoring skills" of James/Wade/Bosh are not going to decline just because each player's pts/36 does.

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