Comments on: BBR Rankings: Pre-Finals Schedule-Adjusted NBA Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings

By: Sean

Sean — Sat, 28 May 2011 12:45:15 +0000

Earlier in the season, Miami's power rating should NOT have been higher than Boston's. Boston was the better team. Miami BECAME better as the season wore on. If you look at the early season head to head---when Boston was better despite a lower power rating---the dynamic of their team was different. 2 of the first 3 matchups came within the 1st ten games of the season. Boston WAS better. I don't care what the power rating said. The reason(s) why that changed include Miami growing and becoming more cohesive and some OLD men in Boston experiencing attrition. If you look at the boxscores of the 1st two games, Shaq (WHO?!?) was playing 18-22 minutes per game and Pierce and Garnett and Allen were all playing 39-42 minutes per game. In the 2nd game (I think), Pierce scored ONE point. And Boston ROLLED. That's how good they were. That's how much BETTER they were than Miami at the time. The power ratings were NOT picking that up. That was a problem with the power ratings. Boston led by 15 points or so at each halftime of those 1st two games-----and by more than that after 3 Quarters of the 3rd game. They were SLAPPING Miami around. Shaq was out for the 3rd game, but Perkins was back. Neither contributed anything by season's end. By season's end, Miami was CLEARLY better. Boston did NOT lose the playoff series because of Rondo's injury---though it did impact them to a degree. They lost because they were old and because Miami by season's end was just better. Miami evolved during the season while Boston decomposed. Probably around the time of their 3rd meeting, they were eye to eye, passing each other on the mall escalators-----Miami going UP, Boston going DOWN. Boston also never adjusted to the trade(s) Ainge made. He gambled and lost on what Shaq could contribute.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Sat, 28 May 2011 12:24:09 +0000

Joel Anthony will be assigned to him, as will Bosh at some points.

By: cort

cort — Fri, 27 May 2011 23:31:56 +0000

miami has gotten better as the season wore on and they learned to play together better. the return of haslem is a boost as well. i want dallas to win and like dirk, but haslem did a pretty good job on him in the 2006 Finals. he got up in him, played him rough and forced him to shoot quicker than he wanted to. intimidated him a bit, but i dont think he can do that this time around. dirk is playing his best and haslem is coming off injury.
now dirk is taking his time and not letting the defense dictate him into taking a quick shot, instead analyzing the situation and driving/posting more. i hope dirk takes it to haslem, but we will see what happens. james will probably guard him some at key moments too.
if dirk gets fair treatment from refs and doesnt let himself get rushed, he should be able to figure out how to beat either player with his size, body control and skill level. he is playing with more confidence and fire now than in 2006.

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Fri, 27 May 2011 20:44:06 +0000

I've posted my Pre-Finals Bayesian Power Ratings here: http://bit.ly/jKDy9s

I've got the Heat 0.8 points/100Poss better than the Mavs.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 27 May 2011 18:28:32 +0000

I'm more interested in how the Lakers had both of their superstars injured.

By: Anon

Anon — Fri, 27 May 2011 18:15:09 +0000

"Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost."

They went up 2-0 with a healthy Rondo playing...

By: Bill

Bill — Fri, 27 May 2011 18:12:36 +0000

No, I'm referring to the argument that head-to-head doesn't matter. It may not, but the Miami-Boston series is a disingenuous example. Boston had an arguable talent advantage in the regular season meetings that disappeared once Rondo was lost. It was no longer the same lineups going head to head.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 27 May 2011 17:59:54 +0000

A playoff rating would certainly be interesting, that's a more important cutoff point.

By: Michael

Michael — Fri, 27 May 2011 17:55:55 +0000

Interesting that Miami doesn't look so hot post-deadline, but I imagine that is entirely attributable to their 5-game losing streak to kick off the final stretch. Since then, well...27-5 in games the Big 3 played (1-1 without at least 1 of them). Beat a lot of good teams during that stretch too: LA, SA, Memphis, Atlanta, Denver, Boston, Chicago, Philly.

By: huevonkiller

huevonkiller — Fri, 27 May 2011 17:55:44 +0000

Miami's rotation got a bit better you mean, even when they were losing it was a toss-up series at worst.