Comments on: 2009 1st Round SPM Scores http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344 NBA & ABA Basketball Statistics & History Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:56:04 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Caleb http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344&cpage=1#comment-10044 Tue, 12 May 2009 15:44:15 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344#comment-10044 I've enjoyed reading the WOW blog in the past, but at the same time Berri's "I am right and you are wrong" tone bugs me greatly... and at this point all his posts are basically repeating the same thing.

]]> By: Zandungeo http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344&cpage=1#comment-10040 Tue, 12 May 2009 08:54:32 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344#comment-10040 Thanks Neil that does seem to be the consensus. Shame though. It's quite exciting when you first come across it as a layman, I mean a stat that claims to explain every players contribution to wins based on purely box score data seems like the holy grail doesn't it. Then you come across sites like yours and apbrmetrics and learn that its not quite that simple!

Thanks again.

]]> By: Neil Paine http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344&cpage=1#comment-10034 Mon, 11 May 2009 22:33:40 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344#comment-10034 You're welcome, guys.

As for Wins Produced... I admire what he's trying to do in terms of finding the weights of various box score stats scientifically, via regression, rather than weighting them by opinion (a la PER, which tries to be logical about it but is still ultimately an opinion). Unfortunately, Dan's critique of WoW is right on the money in terms of the team adjustment making a big difference in its ability to total to actual team wins in a given season. SPM obviously makes a similar team adjustment, but I never tout its ability to "predict" wins that way -- it'd be silly, it's designed to be tied to efficiency differential, it's clearly going to correlate well to this season's wins no matter if it's a junk stat or not. The proof is in the pudding of predicting future seasons, and if I recall from Erich Doerr's spreadsheet WoW did not predict this season very well. I think it's a step in the right direction to attempt a purely empirical boxscore-based metric (remember, that's what SPM is as well, all regression and no opinion), but there are some flaws in the WP method that make it a poor tool for team-building right now.

]]> By: Eddy http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344&cpage=1#comment-10033 Mon, 11 May 2009 22:24:38 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344#comment-10033 Thank you, Neil. I've been dying to get my hands on these numbers.

]]> By: Zandungeo http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344&cpage=1#comment-10028 Mon, 11 May 2009 18:33:35 +0000 http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=2344#comment-10028 Neil, what's you're opinion of the wins produced metric over at wages of wins blog? I know that professor Rosenbaum had some issues with it back in the day, were those ever resolved?

BTW great work with this site.

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