Comments on: Same Player, Different Roles

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 22:24:29 +0000

Re-reading your comment, I see you're actually saying his 1962 rate is too low. That can also be explained by the fact that Wilt played almost every minute of every game that season, in a pace environment with 30-40 more possessions per 48 minutes than the typical 2010-11 game. Kobe's 2006 usage record came with 27.2 FGA/G, playing 82.5% of LA's minutes, on a team with 80.6 FGA/G. Wilt in 1962 had 39.5 FGA/G, playing 100% of PHW's minutes, on a team with 111.6 FGA/G.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 22:12:11 +0000

I described the process here:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6269

I estimated turnovers according to Justin's formula and estimated that 30% of TRB were offensive, which allows you to get a possessions estimate.

If it looks weird to see Wilt that low, consider that in 1973 he took 6 shots per 36 minutes, which would rank among the lowest rates in 2010-11:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=QP758

Add the fact that the average 1973 game had roughly 16 more possessions than the avg. game in 2011, and it's easy to see why his usage estimate was so microscopic.

Obviously these are just estimates anyway, so going back to the 1960s & 70s really tests their accuracy. But I don't think they're very far from what we'd estimate if the NBA officially tracked the necessary stats in that era.

By: Kirk

Kirk — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 20:03:41 +0000

How confident are you about Wilt's usage rate? Not that a 32.7 rate means he's Marcus Camby, but I was surprised to see his number that low compared to some current players. Then I looked at his player page, and saw that there is no usage rate posted for him, which I would have guessed to be the case. Any brief description of how you came to the number and whether you think it adequately compares to usage rates that are calculated for today's players would be welcomed.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 18:22:22 +0000

Sure, that's something I can look at too. The main point here was just to capture guys whose careers have seen seasons as both "the man" and a role player.

By: P Middy

P Middy — Wed, 29 Dec 2010 17:28:56 +0000

Shouldn't we be looking only at his usage from 2008-2009 versus his average usage from 2009-2011? His usage in 2004 is somewhat irrelevant when considering what he gave up to be on the Lakers.

Might also be more interesting to limit the comparison to seasons where the player switched teams, or added a significant player. These are just ideas, and represent a significant amount of work - which I am clearly too lazy to do myself.