Comments on: 2009-10 Eastern Conference Preview

By: Hortense Champagne

Hortense Champagne — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 03:46:43 +0000

I love Sonny With A Chance, I'd have to say my favorite on the show is Chad, I'm hooked on the show! Thanks for your post!

By: siukong

siukong — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:21:38 +0000

Hmmm ... not even 9 wins separating seeds 4 through 12 (and look at those high/lows - virtually identical for most of them). It seems that once again the playoff race outside of CLE/BOS/ORL will be a crapshoot. With injuries and/or hot streaks, I can see any of those 9 teams ranked 4-12 rising or falling accordingly. Should be interesting.

By: khandor

khandor — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:30:14 +0000

Washington marches into Dallas and emerges with a W, sans Messier Jamison. Those expecting Mr. Blatche to NOT put up improved production numbers this season haven't been watching closely enough this off-season, when Ernie Grunfeld made the moves to ditch Songaila, Pecherov and Thomas, and then bring in Oberto [while retaining Andray, McGee and McGuire, in support of Haywood and Jamison up-front]. As I mentioned in my initial comment, Was is one of the teams it seems like your "system" might have failed to forecast accurately this season [barring any major injuries, of course].

By: Cameron Stewart

Cameron Stewart — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:30:59 +0000

Neil, are you smoking something? Cleveland has the most talanted team?! Are you kidding me?! Lebron okay, SHAQ! The mans about 100 years old, he's well past his time as is Big Z! Apart from Lebron and maybe Mo Williams their a pretty lackluster team. Honestly you must be getting paid by the Cavs. Orlando, young and talanted, cavs...man alive, poor poor predictions

By: Larry

Larry — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:11:36 +0000

No way are the Bulls 11th. We are much better than Indiana who you have as 6th.

By: Jared Ras

Jared Ras — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 14:40:29 +0000

I'm going to bookmark this to see how wrong these are at season's end. No offense, but I don't take any predictions seriously; at least you have some statistical base, but no projectors ever recap their projections once all is said and done, which speaks to either a lack of confidence, lack of accuracy, or they just don't care.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 05:43:55 +0000

OK, I put them in a separate post, sorry about before:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3760

I used this Ed Kupfer formula to project games played, then started with a weighted average of the past 2 years' MPG as a baseline and adjusted up or down based on the team's depth charts. All team minutes had to add up to 19,803 MP (48.3*82*5). I admit that last part is subjective, but you and I both know there's no good way to project playing time. Whatever you do, you're going to screw up somewhere.

By: David Lewin

David Lewin — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 22:55:32 +0000

Neil,

It appears your post got cut off a bit there. Care to post the rest of the league (Jason Smith on down)? And, also would you mind describing how these minutes allocations were generated? Was it the same simple projection system type method then forced to the 60-30-10 distribution?

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:31:50 +0000

Josh: The rankings were generated w/ OWS and DWS, so there really aren't any ratings to post. Dave: Sure... Sorry, the playing time table was too long, so I removed it. We'll try to post it later. --Ed.

By: Jason J

Jason J — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:11:29 +0000

Very interesting results and great write up, Neil. A few thoughts... I have a feeling, as long as he's healthy, Wade keeps the Heat in the playoffs. A player who can create good shots late in games tends to get you those close ones. Detroit's chemistry is real concern, I think. They don't have a single starting caliber center on the team. Their four guards all need a lot of touches to be effective. Their starting forwards weigh less than the Olsen twins. There's talent, but it looks like they are a move away from fitting it together. Cleveland may be the most talented team in the East (debatable) and will probably win the most reg season games because they have such great depth up front and LeBron is never hurt, but until I see any combination of their bigs handle a pick and roll, I'm unconvinced they can beat an elite team. Nelson and Rondo come off those screens really hard, and Dwight and KG are Dwight and KG, and both the Magic and Celts can surround those players with shooters. That'll be tough to handle. I'm high on the Raps this season too, but I think top 4 might be wishful thinking. I still don't see enough front court depth or rebounding, and Hedo starts the season out of shape.