Comments on: Chris Bosh and the Most Offensively Detrimental Games in Our Database (*according to statistical +/-)

By: Frank N

Frank N — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 21:15:29 +0000

"an OSPM of -15.18, which means for every 100 possessions he was on the floor, he drained more than 15 points away from Miami's offensive rating relative to a league-average performance." Thanx, yes, this is much more understandable (and says something completely different from the version it replaced)

By: Mo

Mo — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 16:43:16 +0000

"Which could mean that when Kobe stinks it up (and he has certaintly done that many times) his teams around him usually play well enough to offset his suckfest. Notably on defense - see Game 7 of the 2010 Finals." You also have to consider that aside from his poor shooting, he did a lot to help the team win. He had more rebounds than anyone on the Celtics, 15 (4 offensive), only 4 TOs, 1 steal and scored 11 points from the free throw line. So while he had an off game, he didn't have a terrible game.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 16:03:38 +0000

#22 - Sorry, that was confusing. It's weighted by minutes, which is what I was driving at, but it for every possession when he was on the floor, he decreased Miami's expected points per possession average by 15 points of offensive rating.

Say for instance that when he was on the floor they scored 95 points per 100 possessions. Then if he had been average they would have been expected to score 110 pts/100 possessions.

I changed the wording in the post -- it's probably still confusing, but hopefully you get what I mean.

By: Neil Paine

Neil Paine — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:57:26 +0000

Here were the 100 worst overall games (thru last Thursday), regardless of whether they cost a win or not (although 42% of them did cost a win):

Player	GameID	MP	OSPM	Cost
Kevin Garnett	199805020SEA	43.0	-20.09	18.00
Eric Snow	200105260MIL	40.0	-19.30	16.08
Kenyon Martin	200306150SAS	39.0	-19.70	16.01
Tom Gugliotta	199603130MIN	33.0	-22.36	15.37
David Wesley	200104120CHH	28.0	-25.83	15.06
Larry Hughes	200703170CLE	40.3	-17.87	15.02
Latrell Sprewell	200112220NYK	45.0	-15.97	14.97
Gilbert Arenas	200602150DAL	45.2	-15.92	14.97
Samardo Samuels	201101110LAL	32.9	-21.56	14.78
Thurl Bailey	198611150UTA	30.0	-23.54	14.71
Jermaine O'Neal	200703300ORL	33.8	-20.87	14.71
Jamal Mashburn	200203080SAC	39.0	-17.90	14.55
Carmelo Anthony	200404270DEN	32.0	-21.56	14.37
Chris Kaman	200911250IND	40.0	-17.26	14.37
Larry Drew	199004220POR	44.0	-15.66	14.36
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	199611270DET	38.0	-18.12	14.34
Vin Baker	200001170LAL	41.0	-16.67	14.24
Kelenna Azubuike	200904130GSW	41.7	-16.37	14.20
Adam Morrison	200612080CHA	29.7	-22.56	13.95
Shawn Bradley	199401150CLE	43.0	-15.53	13.91
Ron Harper	199103100LAC	38.0	-17.49	13.85
Charles Oakley	200004120IND	37.0	-17.91	13.80
Kenyon Martin	200306130NJN	38.0	-17.42	13.79
LeBron James	200805060BOS	38.8	-17.05	13.79
Ben Gordon	200911150DET	40.7	-16.22	13.77
Dwyane Wade	201011220MIA	37.5	-17.51	13.69
Jamal Crawford	200712080NYK	38.4	-17.11	13.67
Scottie Pippen	199205070CHI	43.0	-15.24	13.65
Terrell Brandon	200011090MIN	41.0	-15.98	13.65
Paul Pierce	200805060BOS	29.2	-22.47	13.64
D.J. Augustin	201012110CHA	32.4	-20.15	13.59
Ray Allen	201006080BOS	42.2	-15.41	13.53
Dale Ellis	199611190DEN	38.0	-17.03	13.48
Kevin Duckworth	199105240LAL	29.0	-22.29	13.46
Amare Stoudemire	201011040CHI	37.4	-17.26	13.43
Clifford Robinson	199304290POR	34.0	-18.91	13.40
Dwyane Wade	200404240NOH	31.0	-20.71	13.38
Andrew Lang	199601150ATL	30.0	-21.31	13.32
Terry Davis	199301160DEN	39.0	-16.39	13.31
Richard Hamilton	200504110CHI	38.0	-18.52	13.28
Raymond Felton	200803140HOU	40.2	-15.85	13.26
Chris Webber	199701170WSB	39.0	-16.29	13.24
Stephen Jackson	201002220LAC	39.1	-16.23	13.23
Chris Mills	199603070CLE	46.0	-13.78	13.21
Allen Iverson	200003020WAS	43.0	-14.71	13.18
Raymond Felton	200811290CHA	41.0	-15.42	13.17
Chris Bosh	201102240CHI	41.6	-15.18	13.16
Erick Strickland	199802260MIA	29.0	-21.78	13.16
Josh Smith	200712110ATL	28.1	-22.44	13.15
Glenn Robinson	199512200DET	40.0	-15.76	13.14
Chris Kaman	200712270LAC	41.1	-15.34	13.13
Raymond Felton	200903280CHA	33.5	-18.79	13.12
Larry Johnson	199512120PHO	44.0	-14.26	13.07
Tyrone Corbin	199012130MIN	36.0	-17.38	13.03
Rex Chapman	198912120CHH	30.0	-20.76	12.97
Andrew Lang	199304020PHI	32.0	-19.45	12.97
Paul Pierce	201102130BOS	39.6	-15.72	12.96
Richard Hamilton	200202240MIA	38.0	-16.30	12.90
Sam Perkins	198811090PHO	43.0	-14.32	12.83
Tom Gugliotta	199211240NYK	21.0	-29.31	12.82
Anthony Avent	199604180VAN	42.0	-14.64	12.81
Antonio Daniels	200604100PHI	44.2	-13.90	12.80
Hot Rod Williams	199003020LAL	23.0	-26.71	12.80
Allan Houston	199905200ATL	27.0	-22.75	12.80
Josh Smith	200802250SAS	34.9	-17.60	12.78
Chris Mills	199501140GSW	35.0	-19.35	12.78
Tracy McGrady	200602120HOU	37.7	-16.27	12.78
Marvin Williams	200704140CLE	40.8	-15.05	12.78
Rajon Rondo	200801040BOS	27.9	-22.00	12.77
Vin Baker	200102260BOS	43.0	-14.25	12.77
Andrew Bogut	201102160MIL	44.8	-13.68	12.76
Rasheed Wallace	200611080SAC	35.7	-17.14	12.75
Andray Blatche	201012310IND	34.1	-17.93	12.75
Channing Frye	200512090PHO	38.2	-16.03	12.75
Jerry Stackhouse	200211260WAS	39.0	-15.69	12.75
Blue Edwards	199512210SEA	28.0	-21.84	12.74
Kevin Garnett	199912110MIN	38.0	-16.07	12.72
Michael Jordan	200201190CHI	41.0	-14.88	12.71
Trevor Ariza	200912130TOR	26.3	-23.19	12.68
Ben Gordon	200703140PHI	32.3	-18.87	12.68
Carlos Boozer	200801050POR	35.1	-17.30	12.65
Ronald Murray	200512280MIN	27.7	-21.87	12.63
Lionel Simmons	199102020NYK	33.0	-18.36	12.62
Yakhouba Diawara	200612310DEN	40.1	-15.13	12.62
Allan Houston	200401270NYK	30.0	-20.17	12.61
Antonio Davis	200011160TOR	45.0	-13.44	12.60
Stephon Marbury	199711210MIN	31.0	-19.50	12.59
Zach Randolph	200412180DET	39.0	-15.49	12.58
Corey Brewer	200712150MIL	36.3	-16.60	12.56
Vin Baker	199603270UTA	40.0	-15.06	12.55
Kevin Willis	199405030MIA	36.0	-16.72	12.54
Ruben Patterson	200211080PHO	23.0	-26.15	12.53
Isiah Thomas	199204240NYK	29.0	-20.74	12.53
Dwight Howard	200912250ORL	43.7	-13.68	12.44
John Amaechi	200012010ORL	38.0	-15.70	12.43
Bobby Phills	199702050TOR	31.0	-19.24	12.43
Steve Francis	200401050HOU	43.0	-13.87	12.42
Jermaine O'Neal	200902110TOR	38.1	-15.66	12.42
Clifford Robinson	200202120DET	30.0	-19.86	12.41
Joe Dumars	199412060IND	36.0	-16.55	12.41

Jordan's worst overall came here, but it did not cost Washington a win: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200201190CHI.html Ditto this Kobe game: http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200802050NJN.html

By: Frank N

Frank N — Mon, 28 Feb 2011 15:55:37 +0000

"an OSPM of -15.18, which means for every minute he was on the floor, he drained more than 15 points away from Miami's offensive rating relative to a league-average performance."

Could someone explain what this means?

If Bosh played 40 minutes as he often does, at -<15 for every minute, that's -<600 points from the rating over the game, yet Miami's rating is 95.3 for the game.

What?

By: Art

Art — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 23:18:55 +0000

Neil, can you make another table without the w/l requirement? I'd like to see Jordan worst game when the team won (or when they were going to lose anyway). There are only a handful of these types of games that players such as Jordan or Kobe have in their careers.

By: DWarner

DWarner — Sun, 27 Feb 2011 23:11:48 +0000

Interesting. How about a piece on the worst performances where a player was bailed out and ended up with the win despite his hideous performance that night?
ala Paul Pierce's 40 minutes vs. LeBron and the Heat where he went 0-10 and managed 1 point on a victorious night.

By: yariv

yariv — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 20:59:39 +0000

I would say Kobe and MJ absence from the top 100 list is meaningless. A single horrible performance says nothing, in my opinion. KG, James and Melo appears once in the top 100, Wade twice. Does it mean anything? I don't think so.

By: Sean

Sean — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 19:33:15 +0000

Makes sense that a lot of these are playoff games where teams are allowed to play defense and it becomes more of a grind on every offensive possession. A more telling search might be something like career number of offensively detrimental games.

By: Nick C

Nick C — Sat, 26 Feb 2011 01:19:06 +0000

Jordan's true worst performance was during the 1990 All star 3 point comp.